Oh baby! That is all one can say after what arguably is one of the best wins of the Kirk Ferentz era. Iowa battled the elements and a rabid Penn State fanbase to top the then 5th ranked team in the country. As one of the 2,000 or so Iowa fans in attendance, I can say that it was well worth standing in the rain for 12 hours to watch the fourth quarter of that game. The thing that leaves me even more optimistic about the season is that this team has not even played its best football yet. Here are some of my thoughts following the game.
Defensive Line. The “six seconds of hell” mantra held true last Saturday as the Iowa defense shut down the Penn State offense following the 79 yard score in the first half. The pressure that Adrian Clayborn, Karl Klug, Christian Ballard, and Broderick Binns were able to put on Darryl Clark forced enough disruption to cause Clark to make poor choices leading him to, at least in part, throw three interceptions. While some Iowa fans continue to harp on Norm Parker for not blitzing enough, the performance put on by the defensive line is nothing but proof that blitzing is not essential to Iowa’s defensive scheme.
Bomber. I mentioned in my last installment that Ryan Donahue is a weapon that can change the field position battle. His punt that landed inside the five, which led to the safety, was the beginning of the dominance of the Iowa defense. Donahue’s ability to change field position with the swing of his leg will be an incredible advantage this season and will more likely than not win Iowa another game this year due to his ability to win the field position battle.
Game Management. Ricky Stanzi did not play one of his better games but he also did not play poorly. Stanzi was able to manage the game and calmly lead the offense in the second half after Iowa gained the lead following Adrian Clayborn’s blocked punt return for a touchdown. Yes, Stanzi’s numbers are pretty unimpressive (11 of 26 for 135 yards), but I do not think many quarterbacks would have done well in that type of weather. Stanzi should be able to get back on track this week against an Arkansas State defense that has given up a significant number of yards through the air in its first three games of the season.
Areas of Improvement. Despite the 4-0 start, there are still several areas in which Iowa can improve. Kickoff coverage on this team has been just ok this year. Currently, Iowa is giving up 19.5 games per return, which puts them at 35th nationally. Well, I guess I am being too picky. We still have not seen Ricky Stanzi play an above average game. As mentioned earlier, the upcoming game appears to be the week in which Stanzi could have a breakout performance. These are just a few of the obvious things that stand out right now. Clearly, the entire team has areas in which they can improve as evident by several comments made by Iowa players following the game. To think that this team can improve, by their own admission nonetheless, gives me great hope about things to come.
The challenge this week against Arkansas State will be to avoid the classic trap game and to see how the team plays having tasted success in an important game. As Kirk Ferentz said, it is more difficult to deal with success than adversity. I think that this Arkansas State game is a great game leading up to the Michigan game for several reasons. First, Arkansas State is a decent football team that returns several skill position players from last year’s team. Second, they run a spread offense, which is similar to the offense that Iowa will see against the Wolverines in two weeks. Although my prediction will come later in the week, I think we will see the Iowa offense finally click for the entire game as well as see the Iowa defense continue to dominate.
Go Hawks!
Monday, September 28, 2009
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Penn State Predictions
It is finally here—the opening of the Big Ten conference season and the beginning of what appears to be a competitive race. The Hawkeyes open up the conference season on the road (weird, given that the Hawkeyes are on the road for the conference opener for the 8th time in Ferentz’s eleven years at Iowa). This game has been on the minds of Penn State players since last year’s loss in Iowa City. However, like I wrote in my last post, I think the “revenge” factor is a bunch of overblown hype that has little to no bearing on the game. Nevertheless, the 100,000+ in Beaver Stadium will be ready to roll following a full day of imbibing in adult beverages. Without a doubt, this game will play a large role in shaping the Big Ten title race. Here are my thoughts leading up to the game.
Stanzi Show. It is not rocket science or a profound thought, but in order for Iowa to have a chance on Saturday, Ricky Stanzi must play like 2d half Ricky during Saturday’s first half. I noted Stanzi’s completion percentage differential between the first half and second half. If Stanzi can minimize mistakes and manage the game so that Iowa is able to sustain long drives, then the Hawks will have a chance to stay in the game.
Special, Special Teams. Ryan Donahue has turned into an absolute weapon for the Hawkeyes with his ability to pin opponents back near their goal line and have an unbelievably long hang time giving his teammates the opportunity to get down the field to tackle the returner. Through three games, Donahue has had four punts returned for a total of five yards. Yes, you read that right. Five. Penn State graduated their star kicker Kevin Kelly and have had problems in various areas of special teams. Last week against Temple, Penn State lost an onsides kick and kicker Colin Wagner is an unimpressive 2 of 4 on the season. The field position battle will be crucial in this game, and Iowa certainly has the advantage thanks to the leg of Donahue.
Six Seconds of Hell. The new rallying cry of Norm Parker’s defense became public last weekend after the Arizona game. The Iowa defense will have to continue their steady rise to becoming one of the best defenses in the country this Saturday. Yes, Penn State presents a significant challenge with Daryll Clark and Evan Royster in the backfield. Clark leads the Big 10 in yards per game and touchdowns, while Royster is turning in another impressive season, as Penn State is 7-0, including last year, when Royster runs for over 100 yards. Thus, Iowa will certainly have its hands full trying to contain those two. Keep in mind, however, that Penn State lost three All Big 10 offensive linemen from last year, and that all-time great PSU receivers Jordan Norwood, Derrick Williams, and Deon Butler are gone. So, while Penn State presents significant challenges on the offensive side of the ball, they are not the same Penn State of last season, and Iowa’s defense has certainly proved that it is capable of giving its opponent “six seconds of hell.”
Come to Penn State. Kirk Ferentz has Joe Paterno’s number when it comes to playing Joe Pa in State College as Iowa won in 2000, 2002, and 2004. Likewise, the Big Ten Network mentioned during one of their shows that Ferentz has a better winning percentage against Penn State than all of the other active coaches in the Big Ten combined, other than Jim Tressel. Penn State’s pro-style offense fits nicely into Iowa’s 4-3 base defense and Norm Parker always seems to make adjustments at halftime that shut down opponents. Do not take this as a slight to Joe Pa in any manner, but I think that Iowa has the advantage when it comes to coaching in this game.
At the beginning of the year, I initially marked this game as a loss. Regardless of the outcome last year, it is always difficult to go into Happy Valley and come away with a win. Up until about thirty seconds ago, I was going to pick Penn State to win in a close one, but I think I have convinced myself otherwise. Given Penn State’s personnel losses and the fact that they have played a ridiculously easy non-conference schedule of Akron, Syracuse, and Temple, and the fact that Iowa always seems to have an answer to Penn State’s offense, I am going to pick the Hawks. If my prediction comes to fruition, it could be the beginning of a very special season.
Prediction: Iowa 20 Penn State 17
Pick to Click: Ricky Stanzi
Stanzi Show. It is not rocket science or a profound thought, but in order for Iowa to have a chance on Saturday, Ricky Stanzi must play like 2d half Ricky during Saturday’s first half. I noted Stanzi’s completion percentage differential between the first half and second half. If Stanzi can minimize mistakes and manage the game so that Iowa is able to sustain long drives, then the Hawks will have a chance to stay in the game.
Special, Special Teams. Ryan Donahue has turned into an absolute weapon for the Hawkeyes with his ability to pin opponents back near their goal line and have an unbelievably long hang time giving his teammates the opportunity to get down the field to tackle the returner. Through three games, Donahue has had four punts returned for a total of five yards. Yes, you read that right. Five. Penn State graduated their star kicker Kevin Kelly and have had problems in various areas of special teams. Last week against Temple, Penn State lost an onsides kick and kicker Colin Wagner is an unimpressive 2 of 4 on the season. The field position battle will be crucial in this game, and Iowa certainly has the advantage thanks to the leg of Donahue.
Six Seconds of Hell. The new rallying cry of Norm Parker’s defense became public last weekend after the Arizona game. The Iowa defense will have to continue their steady rise to becoming one of the best defenses in the country this Saturday. Yes, Penn State presents a significant challenge with Daryll Clark and Evan Royster in the backfield. Clark leads the Big 10 in yards per game and touchdowns, while Royster is turning in another impressive season, as Penn State is 7-0, including last year, when Royster runs for over 100 yards. Thus, Iowa will certainly have its hands full trying to contain those two. Keep in mind, however, that Penn State lost three All Big 10 offensive linemen from last year, and that all-time great PSU receivers Jordan Norwood, Derrick Williams, and Deon Butler are gone. So, while Penn State presents significant challenges on the offensive side of the ball, they are not the same Penn State of last season, and Iowa’s defense has certainly proved that it is capable of giving its opponent “six seconds of hell.”
Come to Penn State. Kirk Ferentz has Joe Paterno’s number when it comes to playing Joe Pa in State College as Iowa won in 2000, 2002, and 2004. Likewise, the Big Ten Network mentioned during one of their shows that Ferentz has a better winning percentage against Penn State than all of the other active coaches in the Big Ten combined, other than Jim Tressel. Penn State’s pro-style offense fits nicely into Iowa’s 4-3 base defense and Norm Parker always seems to make adjustments at halftime that shut down opponents. Do not take this as a slight to Joe Pa in any manner, but I think that Iowa has the advantage when it comes to coaching in this game.
At the beginning of the year, I initially marked this game as a loss. Regardless of the outcome last year, it is always difficult to go into Happy Valley and come away with a win. Up until about thirty seconds ago, I was going to pick Penn State to win in a close one, but I think I have convinced myself otherwise. Given Penn State’s personnel losses and the fact that they have played a ridiculously easy non-conference schedule of Akron, Syracuse, and Temple, and the fact that Iowa always seems to have an answer to Penn State’s offense, I am going to pick the Hawks. If my prediction comes to fruition, it could be the beginning of a very special season.
Prediction: Iowa 20 Penn State 17
Pick to Click: Ricky Stanzi
Sunday, September 20, 2009
What We Learned in Week 3
In my last installment, I mentioned that we would know much more about this Iowa team by the end of the day on Saturday. Well, we certainly did learn more about this team, and what we learned was that the rest of this year could be a good one.
Brick Wall. The most important thing we learned on Saturday was that this defense has the potential to be one of Norm Parker’s best. Arizona averaged 305 yards on the ground and Nick Grigsby was the second leading rusher in the country leading up to the Iowa game. Other than the long 58 yard run by Grigsby, the Iowa defense held Arizona to only 90 yards on the ground. Along with the impressive showing by the run defense, it is evident that one of the differences in this Norm Parker defense is the overall team speed on defense. One needs to look no further than the play Adrian Clayborn made when he came from the opposite of the field to chase Grigsby down on a stretch play. If the defense continues to shut down opponents’ ground game the way they did against Arizona, we are in for a fun ride.
Boomer. Mesko who? I mentioned to several people before the season started that Ryan Donahue had the potential to be 1st team All Big Ten. Well I made that statement forgetting that Zoltan Mesko was still at Michigan. Despite that fact, I am sticking with my prediction. Donahue has averaged 44.6 yards per punt while Mesko has averaged 42.2. Although Donahue and Mesko are currently ranked 4th and 6th, respectively, in the Big Ten, by the time the season is over, they will not only be at the top of the Big Ten but, mark my words, they will be finalists for the Ray Guy Award, which is given to the nation’s top punter.
Inconsistent 1st Half. Ricky Stanzi’s Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act has at least been consistent thus far. (Quick: Is Jekyll or Hyde the bad one?). Jon Miller, publisher of HawkeyeNation.com, made a post after the Arizona game noting that in the first half of the first three games, Stanzi has a completion rate of 49.2% with an ugly efficiency rating of 93.09, while in the second half he has thrown for a completion rate of 73.3% and a 163.09 efficiency rating. I thought the use of high percentage passes would fix the problem, but Stanzi was very efficient on the first drive of the Arizona game, so that theory has now been debunked. Regardless of the solution, something needs to happen because Iowa’s success is dependant on his ability to take pressure off the Iowa running game.
Come to Penn State!!!. The Hawkeyes start out their Big Ten campaign this season at one of the most difficult venues in the entire country—Beaver Stadium in Happy Valley. Not only is the game in State College, but it is a nationally-televised night game, with a PSU declared “whiteout,” and the set of College Gameday on hand. During the week and leading up to the game you will hear the national pundits talk the “revenge” factor after Iowa’s 24-23 win last year. I am sure that Darryl Clark will throw more accurately than normal and that Evan Royster will be quicker than usually, because, you know, they are out for revenge. (Please note the sarcasm). I digress. Needless to say, it is going to be a great game and an even better atmosphere. When I mentioned that the game was nationally televised, I meant it. Everyone in the country who turns on their local ABC affiliate at 7 p.m. CST will be watching Iowa at Penn State.
Although you will have to wait for my prediction later in the week, know that some of Penn State’s weaknesses play into Iowa’s strengths and that Penn State has not been challenged at all this year.
Go Hawks!
Brick Wall. The most important thing we learned on Saturday was that this defense has the potential to be one of Norm Parker’s best. Arizona averaged 305 yards on the ground and Nick Grigsby was the second leading rusher in the country leading up to the Iowa game. Other than the long 58 yard run by Grigsby, the Iowa defense held Arizona to only 90 yards on the ground. Along with the impressive showing by the run defense, it is evident that one of the differences in this Norm Parker defense is the overall team speed on defense. One needs to look no further than the play Adrian Clayborn made when he came from the opposite of the field to chase Grigsby down on a stretch play. If the defense continues to shut down opponents’ ground game the way they did against Arizona, we are in for a fun ride.
Boomer. Mesko who? I mentioned to several people before the season started that Ryan Donahue had the potential to be 1st team All Big Ten. Well I made that statement forgetting that Zoltan Mesko was still at Michigan. Despite that fact, I am sticking with my prediction. Donahue has averaged 44.6 yards per punt while Mesko has averaged 42.2. Although Donahue and Mesko are currently ranked 4th and 6th, respectively, in the Big Ten, by the time the season is over, they will not only be at the top of the Big Ten but, mark my words, they will be finalists for the Ray Guy Award, which is given to the nation’s top punter.
Inconsistent 1st Half. Ricky Stanzi’s Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act has at least been consistent thus far. (Quick: Is Jekyll or Hyde the bad one?). Jon Miller, publisher of HawkeyeNation.com, made a post after the Arizona game noting that in the first half of the first three games, Stanzi has a completion rate of 49.2% with an ugly efficiency rating of 93.09, while in the second half he has thrown for a completion rate of 73.3% and a 163.09 efficiency rating. I thought the use of high percentage passes would fix the problem, but Stanzi was very efficient on the first drive of the Arizona game, so that theory has now been debunked. Regardless of the solution, something needs to happen because Iowa’s success is dependant on his ability to take pressure off the Iowa running game.
Come to Penn State!!!. The Hawkeyes start out their Big Ten campaign this season at one of the most difficult venues in the entire country—Beaver Stadium in Happy Valley. Not only is the game in State College, but it is a nationally-televised night game, with a PSU declared “whiteout,” and the set of College Gameday on hand. During the week and leading up to the game you will hear the national pundits talk the “revenge” factor after Iowa’s 24-23 win last year. I am sure that Darryl Clark will throw more accurately than normal and that Evan Royster will be quicker than usually, because, you know, they are out for revenge. (Please note the sarcasm). I digress. Needless to say, it is going to be a great game and an even better atmosphere. When I mentioned that the game was nationally televised, I meant it. Everyone in the country who turns on their local ABC affiliate at 7 p.m. CST will be watching Iowa at Penn State.
Although you will have to wait for my prediction later in the week, know that some of Penn State’s weaknesses play into Iowa’s strengths and that Penn State has not been challenged at all this year.
Go Hawks!
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Thoughts on Arizona Game
By 6 p.m. on Saturday we are all going to know much more about this 2009 team. Yes, the Hawkeyes played a very, very good UNI team and beat up on little brother last Saturday, but the Arizona game, more so than the other two, will serve as a good measuring stick of whether this is going to be a great Iowa team or merely a good Iowa team. Here are some of the thoughts going through my mind leading up to the Arizona game.
Battered and Bruised. Does the fact that Iowa will be (potentially) without Bryan Bulaga and Tony Moeaki spell doom? No, not necessarily, but the lack of continuity on the offensive line certainly hurts the Hawks heading into the Big Ten slate next weekend. Likewise, although Ricky Stanzi may certainly miss having one of his favorite targets in Moeaki, he will also miss having one of the best blockers on the team not named Bulaga blocking for his running backs (that would be Moeaki). It sounds like it is purely preventative on the Moeaki front, but you have to think that each game he sits, the more it hurts his NFL draft prospects. Do I think he should play through an injury with the potential of aggravating it? Absolutely not. His health is more important, but the NFL scouts will, for better or worse, take note of the fact that for some reason he cannot string together one season of playing injury free. Here is to hoping that they both play, but I am not going to hold my breath. Likewise, what are the odds of Iowa going a week without a major injury issue this season? I say small.
Second Half in the First Half. Ricky Stanzi will need to be sharp on Saturday. Arizona boasts a very fast and physical defense. Arizona is more than capable of loading the box and letting their corners play press man coverage. Thus, it will not only be key for the Iowa receivers to create separation on their routes, but it will also be crucial for Stanzi to be accurate early in the game in order to set up the run. For whatever reason, Stanzi has looked too anxious in the first half of the first two games missing targets badly; while in the second half, he has looked like Stanzi circa 2d half against PSU. Perhaps the best way to remedy this problem is to roll him out early in the game, which will give him the opportunity to throw high percentage passes. Do not be surprised to see ole Ken O’Keefe calling plenty of pass plays early and often similar to what he did last week against Iowa State.
Field Position. Do not kid yourself, this game is going to be a close one. Ryan Donahue gives Iowa a weapon with his ability to not only boom long punts, but also his knack for making balls die down by the ten yard line. His ability to continue that trend and help Iowa win the field position battle will be an important part of the game. Speaking of special teams, Arizona had a field goal and punt blocked against them last week against Northern Arizona. Mark it down, Iowa will do something big on special teams this Saturday. Here is a fearless prediction that it involves Paul Chaney, Jr.
Boy Wonder. No, not Steve Alford. Brandon Wegher (pronounced WAY-gur) has quickly become a fan favorite following his 100 yd. performance last week against Iowa State. Like everyone else, I am excited to see what he can do against a formidable defense. I would be very surprised to see him run for more than 100 yards this week, but I also think he gives Iowa an option that they have not had since Albert Young—a running back who is a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield.
Do not overlook the fact that this game is a 2:30 start. Iowa would have had a significant advantage with an 11:00 start given the time zone difference. That is probably over analyzing a minor detail, but I was in Tempe in 2004 to watch Iowa get throttled by ASU during a 6:30-7(?) kickoff (AZ time), so who knows. If you are in the mood for a high-scoring affair, then I am afraid you will be sorely disappointed. This is going to be a defensive struggle that will likely turn on a key special teams play or a crucial mistake. Either way, I think we will know a lot about this team by the end of it.
Prediction: Iowa 21 Arizona 17
Pick to Click: Paul Chaney, Jr.
Battered and Bruised. Does the fact that Iowa will be (potentially) without Bryan Bulaga and Tony Moeaki spell doom? No, not necessarily, but the lack of continuity on the offensive line certainly hurts the Hawks heading into the Big Ten slate next weekend. Likewise, although Ricky Stanzi may certainly miss having one of his favorite targets in Moeaki, he will also miss having one of the best blockers on the team not named Bulaga blocking for his running backs (that would be Moeaki). It sounds like it is purely preventative on the Moeaki front, but you have to think that each game he sits, the more it hurts his NFL draft prospects. Do I think he should play through an injury with the potential of aggravating it? Absolutely not. His health is more important, but the NFL scouts will, for better or worse, take note of the fact that for some reason he cannot string together one season of playing injury free. Here is to hoping that they both play, but I am not going to hold my breath. Likewise, what are the odds of Iowa going a week without a major injury issue this season? I say small.
Second Half in the First Half. Ricky Stanzi will need to be sharp on Saturday. Arizona boasts a very fast and physical defense. Arizona is more than capable of loading the box and letting their corners play press man coverage. Thus, it will not only be key for the Iowa receivers to create separation on their routes, but it will also be crucial for Stanzi to be accurate early in the game in order to set up the run. For whatever reason, Stanzi has looked too anxious in the first half of the first two games missing targets badly; while in the second half, he has looked like Stanzi circa 2d half against PSU. Perhaps the best way to remedy this problem is to roll him out early in the game, which will give him the opportunity to throw high percentage passes. Do not be surprised to see ole Ken O’Keefe calling plenty of pass plays early and often similar to what he did last week against Iowa State.
Field Position. Do not kid yourself, this game is going to be a close one. Ryan Donahue gives Iowa a weapon with his ability to not only boom long punts, but also his knack for making balls die down by the ten yard line. His ability to continue that trend and help Iowa win the field position battle will be an important part of the game. Speaking of special teams, Arizona had a field goal and punt blocked against them last week against Northern Arizona. Mark it down, Iowa will do something big on special teams this Saturday. Here is a fearless prediction that it involves Paul Chaney, Jr.
Boy Wonder. No, not Steve Alford. Brandon Wegher (pronounced WAY-gur) has quickly become a fan favorite following his 100 yd. performance last week against Iowa State. Like everyone else, I am excited to see what he can do against a formidable defense. I would be very surprised to see him run for more than 100 yards this week, but I also think he gives Iowa an option that they have not had since Albert Young—a running back who is a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield.
Do not overlook the fact that this game is a 2:30 start. Iowa would have had a significant advantage with an 11:00 start given the time zone difference. That is probably over analyzing a minor detail, but I was in Tempe in 2004 to watch Iowa get throttled by ASU during a 6:30-7(?) kickoff (AZ time), so who knows. If you are in the mood for a high-scoring affair, then I am afraid you will be sorely disappointed. This is going to be a defensive struggle that will likely turn on a key special teams play or a crucial mistake. Either way, I think we will know a lot about this team by the end of it.
Prediction: Iowa 21 Arizona 17
Pick to Click: Paul Chaney, Jr.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
ISU Postgame
As they say, “All is right in the universe.” After the Hawkeyes dominated in-state rival Iowa State with a convincing 35-3 win, Hawkeye fans have all breathed a collective sigh of relief. Many people wondered how this team would respond following the all too close for comfort 17-16 win over UNI, but they did respond in a convincing manner. (By the way, UNI put up 712 yards of offense in a 66-7 beat down of North Dakota). There are several positives to take away from the Iowa State game, so here we go.
Ball Hawking. Needless to say, Tyler Sash was an absolute force on Saturday. Sash grabbed three interceptions, forced one fumble and had 10 tackles. Sash’s athleticism is evident with his play at strong safety and it is certainly going to be a pleasure to watch him not only this year but for the next two years.
RRBC? My running back by committee idea is going to be all but gone by the end of the Arizona game. Adam Robinson looked more than serviceable at running back, carrying the ball 12 times for 69 yards. The bigger story at running back was the emergence of Brandon Wegher. The ballyhooed recruit from Sioux City Heelan finally had his opportunity to show the Hawkeye Nation that the hype surrounding him was more than legitimate. Wegher eclipsed the 100 yard mark on fifteen carries, including a one-yard touchdown dive. The thing that impressed me the most about Wegher was his patience waiting for running lanes to develop. It always seems to me that having such patience is a trait that takes time for young running backs to develop. He just seems to have “it.” I am really excited to see what #3 does in an Iowa uniform the next four years. I think next week we will see the following distribution of carries: Robinson 45% Wegher 45% Brinson 10%.
KOK. I know some of you are probably Ken O’Keefe haters. I am not one of them. Nevertheless, I dare anyone to complain about O’Keefe’s play calling on Saturday. He came out with an aggressive game plan geared towards the pass. In fact, he showed several four and five receiver sets, something that we do not see regularly. Keep the good times rolling this season, O’Keefe.
Offensive Line. The offensive line came out with something to prove on Saturday. Without the help of Bryan Bulaga, the offensive line gave Ricky Stanzi all day long to throw and paved the way for 191 yards of total rushing. Speaking of which, I was really impressed with Riley Reiff. To be honest, I was a little surprised that Reiff was given the nod to start at left tackle. Julian Vandervelde looked great in his return, and Josh Koeppel looked pretty solid in some time he received at center. If you have a chance to watch the replay, watch the offensive line play as the Iowa offensive line dished out several pancakes. Based on what has been said by Kirk Ferentz and Bulaga himself, it appears that he will likely play against Arizona, which is certainly a relief. The Bulaga, Richardson, Eubanks (Koeppel?), Vandervelde, and Calloway line is only going to get better as the season progresses. And that, my friends, is going to be fun to watch.
The Iowa defense had a convincing game with five interceptions and an ability to slow down Iowa State’s no-huddle, spread offense. If I had one complaint, it would be the poor tackling. I am not worried about that at all because you can guarantee that Norm Parker, Darrell Wilson, Phil Parker, and Rick Kaczenski will address that issue in practice this week.
The overwhelming concern after the game was Ricky Stanzi’s inconsistency in the first half. There were several instances in which Stanzi had all day to throw and still missed his target by a wide margin. Although I am not worried about Stanzi, it was a little disconcerting to see him miss several wide open targets.
Yes, Iowa State is not exactly a world beater, but it was still refreshing to see Iowa dominate in the manner they did. The game this week against Arizona will give us all a good indication as to the possibilities for this team.
Go Hawks!
Ball Hawking. Needless to say, Tyler Sash was an absolute force on Saturday. Sash grabbed three interceptions, forced one fumble and had 10 tackles. Sash’s athleticism is evident with his play at strong safety and it is certainly going to be a pleasure to watch him not only this year but for the next two years.
RRBC? My running back by committee idea is going to be all but gone by the end of the Arizona game. Adam Robinson looked more than serviceable at running back, carrying the ball 12 times for 69 yards. The bigger story at running back was the emergence of Brandon Wegher. The ballyhooed recruit from Sioux City Heelan finally had his opportunity to show the Hawkeye Nation that the hype surrounding him was more than legitimate. Wegher eclipsed the 100 yard mark on fifteen carries, including a one-yard touchdown dive. The thing that impressed me the most about Wegher was his patience waiting for running lanes to develop. It always seems to me that having such patience is a trait that takes time for young running backs to develop. He just seems to have “it.” I am really excited to see what #3 does in an Iowa uniform the next four years. I think next week we will see the following distribution of carries: Robinson 45% Wegher 45% Brinson 10%.
KOK. I know some of you are probably Ken O’Keefe haters. I am not one of them. Nevertheless, I dare anyone to complain about O’Keefe’s play calling on Saturday. He came out with an aggressive game plan geared towards the pass. In fact, he showed several four and five receiver sets, something that we do not see regularly. Keep the good times rolling this season, O’Keefe.
Offensive Line. The offensive line came out with something to prove on Saturday. Without the help of Bryan Bulaga, the offensive line gave Ricky Stanzi all day long to throw and paved the way for 191 yards of total rushing. Speaking of which, I was really impressed with Riley Reiff. To be honest, I was a little surprised that Reiff was given the nod to start at left tackle. Julian Vandervelde looked great in his return, and Josh Koeppel looked pretty solid in some time he received at center. If you have a chance to watch the replay, watch the offensive line play as the Iowa offensive line dished out several pancakes. Based on what has been said by Kirk Ferentz and Bulaga himself, it appears that he will likely play against Arizona, which is certainly a relief. The Bulaga, Richardson, Eubanks (Koeppel?), Vandervelde, and Calloway line is only going to get better as the season progresses. And that, my friends, is going to be fun to watch.
The Iowa defense had a convincing game with five interceptions and an ability to slow down Iowa State’s no-huddle, spread offense. If I had one complaint, it would be the poor tackling. I am not worried about that at all because you can guarantee that Norm Parker, Darrell Wilson, Phil Parker, and Rick Kaczenski will address that issue in practice this week.
The overwhelming concern after the game was Ricky Stanzi’s inconsistency in the first half. There were several instances in which Stanzi had all day to throw and still missed his target by a wide margin. Although I am not worried about Stanzi, it was a little disconcerting to see him miss several wide open targets.
Yes, Iowa State is not exactly a world beater, but it was still refreshing to see Iowa dominate in the manner they did. The game this week against Arizona will give us all a good indication as to the possibilities for this team.
Go Hawks!
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Iowa State Predictions
I have not felt good about this game since before the 2005 game, and we all know that outcome. To add insult to injury, there are rumors going around the Hawkeye Nation that Bryan Bulaga has not practiced this week and may not play on Saturday. The topic first surfaced on Thursday during a chat with all of the CR Gazette beat writers. Marc Morehouse spilled the beans that Bulaga has not practiced this week. From that point, the message boards have been running rampant with speculation. Ken Miller of 1460 KXNO in Des Moines stated during the Matt & Miller show that he has it from several sources that Bulaga is in fact out for Saturday. I guess the only thing all of us can do is wait and see.
Offensive Keys: There is no other way to put it than simply stating that the Iowa offense has to improve from their performance last week against UNI. However, unlike the UNI game, I think it will be important for the offense to set-up the run through the pass. My guess is that the Iowa State defense will crowd the box as if to say, “Come on, Ricky Stanzi, show me what you got.” I would guess that Ken O’Keefe will have Stanzi throwing the ball on the run quite often, either through a roll-out or the classic, fake-stretch play waggle. Tony Moeaki will play a huge role if the Iowa offense has any type of success. I will be curious to see what Adam Robinson can do this week in a hostile environment. Regardless of how they do it, the Iowa offense must win the time of possession battle on Saturday. A failure to do so will result in a tired defense going up against a no-huddle, spread offense for an entire day, which equals a recipe for disaster.
Defensive Keys: I have had visions all week of Austin Arnaud having three step drops and hitting his receivers over the middle for 5-7 yard routes all day long. Nonetheless, it is hard to overlook the fact that Iowa State has not scored a touchdown against Iowa since 2006. Iowa State also has not won against a BCS opponent since September 6, 2008 in a home game against Kent State, so there is some optimism to think that Iowa’s defense is up to the challenge. Nonetheless, the stories about Tom Herman’s no-huddle offense have me worried. It was evident last week that the defensive line was worn down by the fourth quarter, so it is scary to think about what kind of shape they may be in against Iowa State late in the game. The key for the Iowa defense will be to cause disruption in the Iowa State backfield with the front four. Despite what many people think, Norm Parker actually did call some blitzes last week, but no one thinks that he did because none of the players executed by sacking Pat Grace. However, if Iowa’s front four can cause problems for Arnaud, then I think things will go well for the Hawks on defense. Either way, I think that you will see Norm utilize a nickel back during passing situations.
Like any game, the team that does not turn the ball over or shoot itself in the foot by getting penalized, usually has the advantage. Ever since Dan McCarney reinvigorated this rivalry during his tenure, this game has worried me. For some reason, Iowa always tends to make mental mistakes when they play in Ames, including penalties, turnovers, and just all-around poor play. If Bulaga does not play, I think that the offensive line will again struggle to work as a unit. I also think that Iowa State’s offense will move the ball up and down the field, but will likely have to settle for field goal attempts more often than not. The offense will likely sputter at times and have problems being able to sustain long, clock-eating drives. Add the fact that the home team has won this game the last five years and things begin to look bleak. My prediction is based on the fact that it goes against every fiber of my being to pick Iowa State to win. Despite my prediction, I am not going to be surprised one bit if Iowa State wins. Nonetheless, I will be up at 7:10 in the morning to get in line at The Other Place to cheer loudly for the Hawks with my fellow Kansas City Hawkeye fans.
Prediction: Iowa 17 Iowa State 13
Pick to Click: Pat Angerer
Go Hawks!
Offensive Keys: There is no other way to put it than simply stating that the Iowa offense has to improve from their performance last week against UNI. However, unlike the UNI game, I think it will be important for the offense to set-up the run through the pass. My guess is that the Iowa State defense will crowd the box as if to say, “Come on, Ricky Stanzi, show me what you got.” I would guess that Ken O’Keefe will have Stanzi throwing the ball on the run quite often, either through a roll-out or the classic, fake-stretch play waggle. Tony Moeaki will play a huge role if the Iowa offense has any type of success. I will be curious to see what Adam Robinson can do this week in a hostile environment. Regardless of how they do it, the Iowa offense must win the time of possession battle on Saturday. A failure to do so will result in a tired defense going up against a no-huddle, spread offense for an entire day, which equals a recipe for disaster.
Defensive Keys: I have had visions all week of Austin Arnaud having three step drops and hitting his receivers over the middle for 5-7 yard routes all day long. Nonetheless, it is hard to overlook the fact that Iowa State has not scored a touchdown against Iowa since 2006. Iowa State also has not won against a BCS opponent since September 6, 2008 in a home game against Kent State, so there is some optimism to think that Iowa’s defense is up to the challenge. Nonetheless, the stories about Tom Herman’s no-huddle offense have me worried. It was evident last week that the defensive line was worn down by the fourth quarter, so it is scary to think about what kind of shape they may be in against Iowa State late in the game. The key for the Iowa defense will be to cause disruption in the Iowa State backfield with the front four. Despite what many people think, Norm Parker actually did call some blitzes last week, but no one thinks that he did because none of the players executed by sacking Pat Grace. However, if Iowa’s front four can cause problems for Arnaud, then I think things will go well for the Hawks on defense. Either way, I think that you will see Norm utilize a nickel back during passing situations.
Like any game, the team that does not turn the ball over or shoot itself in the foot by getting penalized, usually has the advantage. Ever since Dan McCarney reinvigorated this rivalry during his tenure, this game has worried me. For some reason, Iowa always tends to make mental mistakes when they play in Ames, including penalties, turnovers, and just all-around poor play. If Bulaga does not play, I think that the offensive line will again struggle to work as a unit. I also think that Iowa State’s offense will move the ball up and down the field, but will likely have to settle for field goal attempts more often than not. The offense will likely sputter at times and have problems being able to sustain long, clock-eating drives. Add the fact that the home team has won this game the last five years and things begin to look bleak. My prediction is based on the fact that it goes against every fiber of my being to pick Iowa State to win. Despite my prediction, I am not going to be surprised one bit if Iowa State wins. Nonetheless, I will be up at 7:10 in the morning to get in line at The Other Place to cheer loudly for the Hawks with my fellow Kansas City Hawkeye fans.
Prediction: Iowa 17 Iowa State 13
Pick to Click: Pat Angerer
Go Hawks!
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Recap of the UNI Game
Wow. That three letter word pretty much sums up my thoughts after the game on Saturday. I will have to admit, I was in full crisis mode at halftime. I was calling and texting all of my diehard Hawkeye friends to rant and rave about Iowa’s performance in the first half. Nonetheless, the second half showed signs of (some) improvement and following a moment that you will never see again (i.e. blocking two field goals in a row), a win. Here are some of my thoughts on the game.
Defense. Following the game, I thought the Iowa defense looked terrible at times. I thought the run support from the secondary was poor in terms of tackling, I thought the front four were not able to put enough pressure on Patrick Grace, and I thought the linebackers were non-existent at times. Then, per usual, I thought about it some more and have come to the conclusion that this defense is going to be a standard Norm Parker defense. The Iowa defense gave up only two field goals in the second half. Yes, they did give up a lot of yards in the final drive. But, and this is important, they only gave up six points. We have seen this scene before with Norm Parker defenses, give up the short 7 yard plays all day long down the field, but when the opponent arrives at the Iowa 20 yard line, it becomes an entirely different story as the defense more often than not forces the opponent to kick a field goal. This defense is going to be just fine when it is all said and done.
Offensive Line Play. Our offensive line play was below average to poor at times on Saturday. However, as the eternal optimist when it comes to Iowa football, I think that once Kyle Calloway returns, which he will this week, and once Julian Vandervelde is starting again (he will see some snaps on Saturday according to Kirk Ferentz's presser on Tues.), this offensive line will be a totally different unite. The zone blocking scheme is predicated on cohesive movement and unspoken rhythm. Once the line begins to mold as a unit, I think the unit will live up to their pre-season expectations. Now do some of you believe me when I said going into the year that this team would miss Rob Bruggeman more than any other player?
Ground Game. Unfortunately, Paki O'Meara just did not have the type of game that many Iowa fans and perhaps the coaches expected. As I wrote before the game, one of the most important things for both running backs heading into the game was ball security. O’Meara unfortunately shot himself in the foot on the first drive of the third quarter, which landed him on the sidelines for the remainder of the second half. Although he will still receive some carries against ISU, the majority of the carries will go to former Lincoln Railsplitter Adam Robinson. Robinson showed some signs of ability to hit the hole hard and shake off tacklers. The area in which it appears as though he needs to improve is his patience for a running lane to develop. Young running backs seem to have a tendency to hit the hole too hard before the linemen have engaged the defenders. Likewise, they tend to not see the cutback lane. The ability to "see" the cutback lane is vital in the Iowa offense because of the zone blocking scheme. When the zone blocking scheme works well, the cutback lane is open for a running back to take full advantage. It is still unclear whether Jeff Brinson will play at all Saturday. If I had to break it down, my guess is that Robinson will receive 75% of the carries, O'Meara 15%, and Brinson 10%. Perhaps we will get a Brandon Wegher sighting at running back, but do not hold your breath. Would you give the ball to a true freshmen running back for his first carry in a rivalry game at the opponent's stadium? Yeah, I thought so.
Special Teams. Ryan Donahue was arguably the player of the game on Saturday. His booming punts that stopped on a dime inside the 20 were very important in causing UNI to have poor field position on several drives. I think Donahue is quietly moving himself up the ladder for all-time great Iowa punters. Certainly he has a long way to go to catch Reggie Roby, but he is making a case for being named in the same sentence as Jason Baker.
Those are some of my thoughts on the UNI game. I still think this team has a lot of potential. As usual, I think it will be a typical Kirk Ferentz team that continues to improve each week of the season. The game this weekend will serve as an obvious metric as to how good this team might be this season. The early forecast calls for rain. I think that rainy conditions would favor Iowa. I am still unsure on my prediction, but stay tuned for it later this week.
Go Hawks!
Friday, September 4, 2009
UNI Predictions
As I have been telling people all week, the best time of the year is finally upon us. The 120th season of Iowa Hawkeye football kicks off this Saturday at 11:05 as the Hawkeyes host the Northern Iowa Panthers. The beginning of the season and everything leading up to it has been analyzed three times over, so it is certainly a relief to begin to talk about actual games rather than the speculation coming out of Ft. Kenyon Practice Facility and Ft. Kinnick.
Here are the five things I would like to see on Saturday:
One Series, One Score- Although the Hawks were able to do this last season many a time, I would love for the offense to score on their first possession with a solid eight to ten play drive. Speaking of which, do you think Iowa will take the ball if they win the toss? (Please note the sarcasm)
Turkey- Did you know that the last time an Iowa quarterback threw for 300 yards was in 2007? Jake Christensen threw for 308 yards in a 38-20 loss to Indiana on September 28, 2007. Given the inexperience of UNI’s secondary, I fully expect Ricky Stanzi to eclipse the 300 yard mark on Saturday. Speaking of the Hoosiers, is there a more annoying “ditty” than the one the IU Marching Band plays after a first down? It is almost (emphasis on almost) as bad as “That’s good for another Golden Gopher….first down.” Sorry, I had to get my Gopher jab in there.
Takeaways- Iowa finished the 2008 season with 23 interceptions, which was good enough for fourth nationally. The turnover margin of +8 was good enough for third in the Big Ten and 22nd nationally. The defense’s ability to continue this trend will be instrumental in once again establishing the Iowa defense as one of the best in the country.
Running Game- RRBC (Running Back by Committee) begins on Saturday. Just like every other Iowa fan, I am very curious to see what Paki O’Meara, Adam Robinson, and Brandon Wegher can do. Regardless of their numbers and production, the two most important goals for them on Saturday should be: 1. Ball Security 2. Pick up Blitzes.
Dominance on the D-Line- I have said it before and I will say it again. This year’s defensive line has the potential to be scary good. I fully expect Broderick Binns and Adrian Clayborn to wreak havoc in the UNI backfield all day on Saturday.
Prediction:
Despite the fact that UNI is one of the best D-1AA (sorry, FCS) teams in the country, they lack the depth necessary to compete for four quarters with most D-1 (BCS) teams, let alone a Top 25 ranked team. I think the Iowa offense will have its usual slow start with some small mental mistakes (e.g. false starts, missed assignments); however, the defense will prevent UNI from doing much of anything on offense. After a series or two, the offense will start to click and will not look back from that point. The defense absolutely smothers the Panthers and frustrates Patrick Grace all day. Thus, although the Panthers may keep it close for a quarter or two, the Hawks will ultimately begin to pull away as the steady dose of running behind the “Big Hog Mollies” will wear down the UNI defense.
Final Score: Iowa 38 UNI 10
Pick to Click: Tony Moeaki
Here are the five things I would like to see on Saturday:
One Series, One Score- Although the Hawks were able to do this last season many a time, I would love for the offense to score on their first possession with a solid eight to ten play drive. Speaking of which, do you think Iowa will take the ball if they win the toss? (Please note the sarcasm)
Turkey- Did you know that the last time an Iowa quarterback threw for 300 yards was in 2007? Jake Christensen threw for 308 yards in a 38-20 loss to Indiana on September 28, 2007. Given the inexperience of UNI’s secondary, I fully expect Ricky Stanzi to eclipse the 300 yard mark on Saturday. Speaking of the Hoosiers, is there a more annoying “ditty” than the one the IU Marching Band plays after a first down? It is almost (emphasis on almost) as bad as “That’s good for another Golden Gopher….first down.” Sorry, I had to get my Gopher jab in there.
Takeaways- Iowa finished the 2008 season with 23 interceptions, which was good enough for fourth nationally. The turnover margin of +8 was good enough for third in the Big Ten and 22nd nationally. The defense’s ability to continue this trend will be instrumental in once again establishing the Iowa defense as one of the best in the country.
Running Game- RRBC (Running Back by Committee) begins on Saturday. Just like every other Iowa fan, I am very curious to see what Paki O’Meara, Adam Robinson, and Brandon Wegher can do. Regardless of their numbers and production, the two most important goals for them on Saturday should be: 1. Ball Security 2. Pick up Blitzes.
Dominance on the D-Line- I have said it before and I will say it again. This year’s defensive line has the potential to be scary good. I fully expect Broderick Binns and Adrian Clayborn to wreak havoc in the UNI backfield all day on Saturday.
Prediction:
Despite the fact that UNI is one of the best D-1AA (sorry, FCS) teams in the country, they lack the depth necessary to compete for four quarters with most D-1 (BCS) teams, let alone a Top 25 ranked team. I think the Iowa offense will have its usual slow start with some small mental mistakes (e.g. false starts, missed assignments); however, the defense will prevent UNI from doing much of anything on offense. After a series or two, the offense will start to click and will not look back from that point. The defense absolutely smothers the Panthers and frustrates Patrick Grace all day. Thus, although the Panthers may keep it close for a quarter or two, the Hawks will ultimately begin to pull away as the steady dose of running behind the “Big Hog Mollies” will wear down the UNI defense.
Final Score: Iowa 38 UNI 10
Pick to Click: Tony Moeaki
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