After a treacherous two-game road trip that resulted in sitting in the driver’s seat of the Big 10 and moving into unchartered territory as far Iowa football history is concerned, the Iowa Hawkeyes come home for what appeared, at least at the beginning of the season, to be a welcomed two-game home stand. However, with the loss of Adam Robinson and Dace Richardson and a target the size of the state on their backs, the Hawkeyes will get the Indiana Hoosiers’ best shot. Here are my thoughts.
Running Back Situation. The entire Hawkeye Nation collectively became rightfully worried on Tuesday when it was announced at Kirk Ferentz’s press conference that Robinson would be out for the remainder of the year. Robinson has grown considerably in this season to become the fourth leading rusher in the Big Ten and a reliable back. Robinson has that knack to make a three yard gain become a five or six yard gain and, perhaps most importantly, secures the football. While Brandon Wegher will do a fine job, I am not sure that he is capable of being a 20-25 carry per game running back, especially given the fact that he bruised his ribs against Michigan State. Look, I know Paki O’Meara is probably not the best running back in Division I, but get ready for him to see some playing time. O’Meara must do two things on Saturday: secure the football and successfully execute his blocking assignments. If he does those two things, you will hear absolutely zero complaints from me about O’Meara’s performance on the field. Any yards he picks up while rushing or catching the ball out of the backfield is just gravy. Some people this week have been curious as to whether true freshmen Brad Rogers will have his redshirt taken off to give Iowa another option in the backfield. I have one qualm about that possibility. If there is even the slightest hesitance about his blocking ability, then I would be inclined to keep the redshirt on Rogers. The most important asset of this team at this point in the season is Ricky Stanzi. One missed block by Rogers that leads to a hit that takes out Stanzi would spell utter doom for this team. Granted, the coaches see Rogers in practice and know what he is capable of doing, so I am not stating that I think he is poor blocker; rather I am saying why there might be a good reason to keep the redshirt on for now. Also, if Rogers loses his redshirt, Iowa would have five scholarship sophomore running backs next season.
Offensive Sets. Say what you want, but I have been very impressed with Ken O’Keefe’s game plans and play calling this season. I am curious to see what O’Keefe has in mind this Saturday given the loss of Robinson. I think we will see several four and five receiver sets and a west coast passing attack to create high percentage pass attempts. While Indiana certainly has an experienced secondary with Austin Thomas, Nick Polk, and converted wide receiver Ray Fisher, I think we will see Iowa try to stretch the field similar to the first quarter of the Arkansas State game. On the other hand, maybe Indiana plays to stop the pass opening up the Iowa ground game. Either way, I think the Iowa offense has a breakout game in which we see backup quarterback James Vandenberg late in the fourth quarter.
Edge Matchups. The Kyle Calloway/Jammie Kirlew and Bryan Bulaga/Greg Middleton matchups are going to be exciting to watch, as both matchups pit NFL caliber players against one another. Kirlew leads the Big Ten in forced fumbles, while his counterpart, Middleton, wreaked havoc against the Hawkeyes two years ago with 2.5 sacks in a 38-20 Iowa win. Although it is tough to watch the offensive tackle/defensive end battle during a game, try your best to do so because you will not be disappointed.
Defense. For some reason, the tone of the message boards and Iowa fans in general this week was one of doom and woe is me. Could Iowa lose all of their remaining games? Absolutely. Will they? Probably not. Indiana is deflated coming into this game after their loss last week to Northwestern in which they led at one point 28-3. While Indiana’s offensive statistics are pretty much all in the middle of the Big 10, do not forget how solid this Iowa defense has been all season. Indiana’s pistol offense is somewhat flashy, relying on a lot of misdirection plays, reverses, and semi-tricky plays, but this Iowa defense has shown that it can handle a variety of offensive attacks. Although Indiana’s quarterback Ben Chappell is an efficient passer, the pressure that the Iowa defensive front four will be able to apply and the ever-sturdy defensive backfield will make it a long day for Chappell.
Instead of having a fragile psyche about this game, I think Iowa fans should look forward to Saturday to see how Stanzi does if O’Keefe gives him the keys to the offense. Personally, I am interested to see who the punt returner will be on Saturday. In his call-in show on Wednesday night, Ferentz indicated that Amari Spievey would return punts. Call me crazy, but I have a hunch that Keenan Davis will be back there. Although we have been calling for it all year, I think this the game that the Hawkeyes put up some serious points on the scoreboard and win by a sizeable margin. The weather looks to be absolutely perfect for a fall Saturday in October. What better way to spend one’s Saturday than in Kinnick welcoming back the team that is 8-0 for the first time in school history, 4th in the BCS standings and, week in and week out, playing solid, fundamental football in a season that has been one for the ages.
Prediction: Iowa 31 Indiana 10
Pick to Click: Derrell Johnson-Koulianos
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Thoughts on Michigan State Game
Good seasons are defined by great games. Great seasons are defined by moments. What Iowa accomplished on Saturday was nothing short of incredible. This is a game that Hawkeye fans will forever remember where they were when Iowa scored the last second touchdown and the ensuing emotions they felt. Here are my thoughts on the game.
Special Moment. After struggling to move the ball most of the day, the Iowa offense marched 70 yards on ten plays on what people are starting to term “The Drive,” culminating in a seven yard pass from Ricky Stanzi to Marvin McNutt as time expired, in a play that certainly ranks in the top five of all-time Hawkeye football moments. Several Iowa based media outlets have posed the question as to where McNutt’s catch ranks on the all-time list of Hawkeye football moments. Did the Hawkeyes become 8-0 for the first time in school history? Yes. Did the Hawkeyes vault to fourth in the BCS standings? Yes. Does this compare to 1985 #1 vs. #2 or The Catch? Absolutely not. Sorry, Iowa fans of the 2000s, although McNutt’s catch could be the moment we remember most about this magical season, it still does not rank above those other two moments in Iowa football history. The context and background of the other two games outweighs the one surrounding this Michigan State game, at least in my opinion, but with the way this season is going, who knows what else may happen.
Finding a Way. The offense did not have one of their better games, but as I mentioned before the game, the Michigan State defense is a very solid group. Judging from the injuries that occurred during the game and the comments made by the players afterwards, this was by far the most physical game that Iowa has played this season. I do not think that I am crazy for thinking that Iowa should have won this game 24-17 had the offense converted on those two red zone possessions in the third and fourth quarters. While I certainly think one can criticize the play calls in those possessions, after watching the game again, it appeared that there were some missed blocks and perhaps some poor decisions on the part of the running backs. Speaking of running backs, Adam Robinson had a very quiet 109 yards rushing the football; however, Iowa fans should be holding their breath to hear the prognosis on his ankle. Do not be surprised to see Paki O’Meara see significant carries against Indiana due to Robinson’s injury and what appeared to be a rib injury to Brandon Wegher. I have to say, I feel pretty good in retrospect about selecting Stanzi as my pick to click for Saturday. His uncanny ability to forget mistakes and stay calm and collected when the pressure of a game is at its highest is something that you just cannot teach. His statistics certainly do not compare, but I think by the time his career is over, he will deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Chuck Long, Chuck Hartlieb, Matt Rodgers, and Brad Banks.
Another Gutty Performance. Perhaps the biggest moment in the game came in the third quarter when the Iowa defense kept Michigan State out of the endzone on 1st and Goal with the ball at the Iowa one yard line. Three consecutive gutty plays by the Iowa defense forced a Brett Swenson 23 yard field goal. It was no coincidence that Pat Angerer and AJ Edds, two seniors, played critical roles in that goal line stand. As much as it makes me sad to think about, I think Adrian Clayborn is playing himself into a solid NFL draft prospect for this year’s draft. In every game this season, it seems as though once Clayborn gets his first sack or quarterback hurry he seems to feed off of that play and become a man who is possessed for the remainder of each game.
Hands. I know I have become a broken record each and every week about Stanzi, but sooner or later, the passing offense is going to break out in a big way. The receiving weapons on this team are nothing short of an arsenal with Tony Moeaki, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Trey Stross, Marvin McNutt, Allen Reisner, Keenan Davis, and Colin Sandeman. If the running back situation is as dire as it sounds at this point in time, Iowa will likely be throwing the ball all over the field against Indiana. Count me as a fan that will enjoy watching that offensive display.
I am still in utter, joyful disbelief about what happened in the final two seconds of the Michigan State game. Moments like that come around once every five to ten years, but those moments are the reason why we love sports and why we pour all of our emotion into sports. While the next two weeks are games that Iowa should win convincingly, it is never easy in the Big 10, let alone when you are the number six team in the country with a giant target on your back. I believe that we will see the Iowa offense really start to click the next two weeks before another big game against Ohio State in the Horseshoe. For right now, I am enjoying every single moment of this season, even if it is listening to folks like Todd McShay and Jessie Palmer doubt Iowa’s legitimacy and question their chance of playing for the national championship. The words “Iowa” and “national championship” have rarely been spoken in the same sentence in my lifetime, so I am going to enjoy every second of the coverage, even if it is listening to the haters, because seasons like this only come around so often.
Special Moment. After struggling to move the ball most of the day, the Iowa offense marched 70 yards on ten plays on what people are starting to term “The Drive,” culminating in a seven yard pass from Ricky Stanzi to Marvin McNutt as time expired, in a play that certainly ranks in the top five of all-time Hawkeye football moments. Several Iowa based media outlets have posed the question as to where McNutt’s catch ranks on the all-time list of Hawkeye football moments. Did the Hawkeyes become 8-0 for the first time in school history? Yes. Did the Hawkeyes vault to fourth in the BCS standings? Yes. Does this compare to 1985 #1 vs. #2 or The Catch? Absolutely not. Sorry, Iowa fans of the 2000s, although McNutt’s catch could be the moment we remember most about this magical season, it still does not rank above those other two moments in Iowa football history. The context and background of the other two games outweighs the one surrounding this Michigan State game, at least in my opinion, but with the way this season is going, who knows what else may happen.
Finding a Way. The offense did not have one of their better games, but as I mentioned before the game, the Michigan State defense is a very solid group. Judging from the injuries that occurred during the game and the comments made by the players afterwards, this was by far the most physical game that Iowa has played this season. I do not think that I am crazy for thinking that Iowa should have won this game 24-17 had the offense converted on those two red zone possessions in the third and fourth quarters. While I certainly think one can criticize the play calls in those possessions, after watching the game again, it appeared that there were some missed blocks and perhaps some poor decisions on the part of the running backs. Speaking of running backs, Adam Robinson had a very quiet 109 yards rushing the football; however, Iowa fans should be holding their breath to hear the prognosis on his ankle. Do not be surprised to see Paki O’Meara see significant carries against Indiana due to Robinson’s injury and what appeared to be a rib injury to Brandon Wegher. I have to say, I feel pretty good in retrospect about selecting Stanzi as my pick to click for Saturday. His uncanny ability to forget mistakes and stay calm and collected when the pressure of a game is at its highest is something that you just cannot teach. His statistics certainly do not compare, but I think by the time his career is over, he will deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Chuck Long, Chuck Hartlieb, Matt Rodgers, and Brad Banks.
Another Gutty Performance. Perhaps the biggest moment in the game came in the third quarter when the Iowa defense kept Michigan State out of the endzone on 1st and Goal with the ball at the Iowa one yard line. Three consecutive gutty plays by the Iowa defense forced a Brett Swenson 23 yard field goal. It was no coincidence that Pat Angerer and AJ Edds, two seniors, played critical roles in that goal line stand. As much as it makes me sad to think about, I think Adrian Clayborn is playing himself into a solid NFL draft prospect for this year’s draft. In every game this season, it seems as though once Clayborn gets his first sack or quarterback hurry he seems to feed off of that play and become a man who is possessed for the remainder of each game.
Hands. I know I have become a broken record each and every week about Stanzi, but sooner or later, the passing offense is going to break out in a big way. The receiving weapons on this team are nothing short of an arsenal with Tony Moeaki, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Trey Stross, Marvin McNutt, Allen Reisner, Keenan Davis, and Colin Sandeman. If the running back situation is as dire as it sounds at this point in time, Iowa will likely be throwing the ball all over the field against Indiana. Count me as a fan that will enjoy watching that offensive display.
I am still in utter, joyful disbelief about what happened in the final two seconds of the Michigan State game. Moments like that come around once every five to ten years, but those moments are the reason why we love sports and why we pour all of our emotion into sports. While the next two weeks are games that Iowa should win convincingly, it is never easy in the Big 10, let alone when you are the number six team in the country with a giant target on your back. I believe that we will see the Iowa offense really start to click the next two weeks before another big game against Ohio State in the Horseshoe. For right now, I am enjoying every single moment of this season, even if it is listening to folks like Todd McShay and Jessie Palmer doubt Iowa’s legitimacy and question their chance of playing for the national championship. The words “Iowa” and “national championship” have rarely been spoken in the same sentence in my lifetime, so I am going to enjoy every second of the coverage, even if it is listening to the haters, because seasons like this only come around so often.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Michigan State Predictions
Although I am not one for hyperboles, I do not think it is a stretch to say that this is one of the most critical games for the Iowa football program in the past ten years. A win on Saturday would result in the first ever 8-0 start for an Iowa football team, a very good chance at a Big Ten championship, and a possible Rose Bowl berth, something that has not happened since 1991. Here are my thoughts leading up to the game.
Quarterback Play. Call me crazy, but I really think that Ricky Stanzi has turned the corner and will become the solid performer that we all expected him to be this year. His arm strength and precision has never really been an issue, rather it has been his decisionmaking process. Although Stanzi has always been mature beyond his years under center, I think the 4th down play on the final offensive drive last weekend really illustrates his growth with respect to the decisionmaking process. I am sure the coaching staff told him not to throw it unless the tight end was clearly wide open or if he could pick up the first down on the ground. Although Allen Reisner was open enough, Stanzi made the smart play by running out of bounds and not risking the interception. Stanzi’s performance against Wisconsin makes me think that he is going to have an outstanding game against Michigan State. His counterpart for Michigan State, Kirk Cousins, will certainly do his best to be the better quarterback in this contest. Cousins currently leads the Big Ten in pass efficiency, completing around 64% of his attempts. As goes Stanzi and Cousins, so goes their respective team. Stanzi will have to step up his game once again this week, as Michigan State’s defense has allowed only 99 yards per game on the ground, which is good enough for 19th nationally. This statistic really concerns me due to the struggles Iowa has had on the ground as of late. In my view, the quarterback who makes fewer mistakes will end up being on the winning end of this football game.
Defensive Struggle. Both Iowa and Michigan State have incredible defenses. Michigan State is probably the only team Iowa will face this year with a linebacker corps that is better than Iowa. Greg Jones, a junior, is the unequivocal leader of the Spartan defense, as he leads the Big Ten in tackles and is tied for fourth in the league in sack with five on the year. The other Michigan State linebackers, Eric Gordon and Brandon Denson, are two solid players whose names Iowa fans will likely hear regularly on Saturday. Mind you, Iowa’s defense is no slouch. Iowa leads the Big Ten in pass efficiency defense, and everyone knows that Iowa leads the nation in interceptions. Given the predicted weather for East Lansing, I hope that Iowa fans are looking forward to a classic Big Ten showdown because this game has all the making of a slugfest. After the loss of Javon Ringer and the midseason injury to Glenn Winston, Michigan State has had to rely on freshmen running back Larry Caper. This week, the Spartans will also feature another true freshmen running back, Edwin Baker in the backfield, who had his redshirt pulled last week against Northwestern. One other item that makes me think that the Iowa defensive line will have a solid game is that Michigan State has had to replace three starters from its offensive line from last year. Because Wisconsin and Michigan State are somewhat similar in their offensive approaches, I think the Iowa defense will be very well prepared for the game this week and will shut down the Spartan ground game like they did in the second half against Wisconsin.
Kicking Delight. As they always say, special teams play is crucial in any big game. Similar to the defense, both teams have very solid kicking games. Brett Swenson is 10 of 11 on the year and, as a senior, has seen his fair share of important kicks during his time. Maybe it is me, but I think one statistic that has not been emphasized enough is net punting. Iowa has had only thirteen punts returned for a total of 46 yards, which is a 3.5 yard average per return. Those “hidden” yards can make a huge difference in winning the field position battle, a battle that often determines the winner. Daniel Murray’s career best 48 yard boot at the end of the first half against Wisconsin gives the coaching staff a reason to have more confidence when the ball is in Michigan State territory. If I had to venture a guess, I would guess that Murray will have at least three opportunities to put three points up on the board on Saturday. I only need to remind you of last year’s final score of 16-13 to emphasize that field goals will likely play an important role again this weekend.
Strange Numbers. The recurring theme all week has been numbers. First, Kirk Ferentz’s record in East Lansing and that the Hawkeyes have not won in East Lansing since 1995. Second, Iowa has the opportunity to go 8-0 for the first time in school history. Well here are a few other numbers for you. Michigan State has not defeated a team ranked in the Top 50 in total defense. In case you were curious, Iowa is ranked 22nd. Likewise, Michigan State gave up 14 points to an Illinois team that has not scored more than 17 points against any 1-A opponent this entire season and gave up 38 points to a Wisconsin team that scored only 10 points against Iowa.
As unbelievable as it may sound this early in the season, the winner of this game has the inside track on representing the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl. Iowa plays three of its remaining four games at home, while Michigan State closes out the season against Minnesota on the road, Western Michigan at home, Purdue on the road, and Penn State at home. While the national pundits continue to have doubts about this Iowa team, you and I all know that they are putting together a season that will not soon be forgotten. This team just has a knack to find a way to win games. Something tells me that they will find a way to come up with a win on Saturday that continues this magical ride.
Prediction: Iowa 20 Michigan State 14
Pick to Click: Ricky Stanzi
Quarterback Play. Call me crazy, but I really think that Ricky Stanzi has turned the corner and will become the solid performer that we all expected him to be this year. His arm strength and precision has never really been an issue, rather it has been his decisionmaking process. Although Stanzi has always been mature beyond his years under center, I think the 4th down play on the final offensive drive last weekend really illustrates his growth with respect to the decisionmaking process. I am sure the coaching staff told him not to throw it unless the tight end was clearly wide open or if he could pick up the first down on the ground. Although Allen Reisner was open enough, Stanzi made the smart play by running out of bounds and not risking the interception. Stanzi’s performance against Wisconsin makes me think that he is going to have an outstanding game against Michigan State. His counterpart for Michigan State, Kirk Cousins, will certainly do his best to be the better quarterback in this contest. Cousins currently leads the Big Ten in pass efficiency, completing around 64% of his attempts. As goes Stanzi and Cousins, so goes their respective team. Stanzi will have to step up his game once again this week, as Michigan State’s defense has allowed only 99 yards per game on the ground, which is good enough for 19th nationally. This statistic really concerns me due to the struggles Iowa has had on the ground as of late. In my view, the quarterback who makes fewer mistakes will end up being on the winning end of this football game.
Defensive Struggle. Both Iowa and Michigan State have incredible defenses. Michigan State is probably the only team Iowa will face this year with a linebacker corps that is better than Iowa. Greg Jones, a junior, is the unequivocal leader of the Spartan defense, as he leads the Big Ten in tackles and is tied for fourth in the league in sack with five on the year. The other Michigan State linebackers, Eric Gordon and Brandon Denson, are two solid players whose names Iowa fans will likely hear regularly on Saturday. Mind you, Iowa’s defense is no slouch. Iowa leads the Big Ten in pass efficiency defense, and everyone knows that Iowa leads the nation in interceptions. Given the predicted weather for East Lansing, I hope that Iowa fans are looking forward to a classic Big Ten showdown because this game has all the making of a slugfest. After the loss of Javon Ringer and the midseason injury to Glenn Winston, Michigan State has had to rely on freshmen running back Larry Caper. This week, the Spartans will also feature another true freshmen running back, Edwin Baker in the backfield, who had his redshirt pulled last week against Northwestern. One other item that makes me think that the Iowa defensive line will have a solid game is that Michigan State has had to replace three starters from its offensive line from last year. Because Wisconsin and Michigan State are somewhat similar in their offensive approaches, I think the Iowa defense will be very well prepared for the game this week and will shut down the Spartan ground game like they did in the second half against Wisconsin.
Kicking Delight. As they always say, special teams play is crucial in any big game. Similar to the defense, both teams have very solid kicking games. Brett Swenson is 10 of 11 on the year and, as a senior, has seen his fair share of important kicks during his time. Maybe it is me, but I think one statistic that has not been emphasized enough is net punting. Iowa has had only thirteen punts returned for a total of 46 yards, which is a 3.5 yard average per return. Those “hidden” yards can make a huge difference in winning the field position battle, a battle that often determines the winner. Daniel Murray’s career best 48 yard boot at the end of the first half against Wisconsin gives the coaching staff a reason to have more confidence when the ball is in Michigan State territory. If I had to venture a guess, I would guess that Murray will have at least three opportunities to put three points up on the board on Saturday. I only need to remind you of last year’s final score of 16-13 to emphasize that field goals will likely play an important role again this weekend.
Strange Numbers. The recurring theme all week has been numbers. First, Kirk Ferentz’s record in East Lansing and that the Hawkeyes have not won in East Lansing since 1995. Second, Iowa has the opportunity to go 8-0 for the first time in school history. Well here are a few other numbers for you. Michigan State has not defeated a team ranked in the Top 50 in total defense. In case you were curious, Iowa is ranked 22nd. Likewise, Michigan State gave up 14 points to an Illinois team that has not scored more than 17 points against any 1-A opponent this entire season and gave up 38 points to a Wisconsin team that scored only 10 points against Iowa.
As unbelievable as it may sound this early in the season, the winner of this game has the inside track on representing the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl. Iowa plays three of its remaining four games at home, while Michigan State closes out the season against Minnesota on the road, Western Michigan at home, Purdue on the road, and Penn State at home. While the national pundits continue to have doubts about this Iowa team, you and I all know that they are putting together a season that will not soon be forgotten. This team just has a knack to find a way to win games. Something tells me that they will find a way to come up with a win on Saturday that continues this magical ride.
Prediction: Iowa 20 Michigan State 14
Pick to Click: Ricky Stanzi
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Thoughts on Wisconsin Game
Well this supposed “Hawk Hater,” based on my last installment, is eating some serious crow today. Although Iowa is certainly capable of winning and losing every remaining game on their schedule, there is just something about this team that makes me think that they will follow the mantra of the 2004 season by “finding a way.” Here are my thoughts on the game.
The Manzi. Other than the lost fumble, Ricky Stanzi had an outstanding game at the helm. In only the way a solid quarterback can, Stanzi stayed calm and collected after Iowa was down early 10-0. It has been said many a time by many a writer, but Stanzi’s best attribute is his ability to have a short memory. One can certainly tell that he has quietly, yet confidently assumed the leadership role of the offense as the season has progressed. Stanzi’s maturation on the field is quickly growing and I think it is only a matter of time before he plays a complete game.
Beasts of the Line. What more can I say about Adrian Clayborn that has not already been said? Clayborn looked like a man possessed yesterday from Wisconsin’s last possession in the second quarter through the remainder of the game. This game also reinforced the fact that the Iowa coaching staff makes some of the best halftime adjustments of any coaching staff in the country. After looking porous in the first half, the Iowa defense limited the Wisconsin offense to just 58 yards in the second half, including just four yards on the ground. Something tells me that this Iowa defense is only going to get better with its run defense the rest of this season.
Unsung Heroes. There are several players on this Iowa team that are quietly turning in outstanding seasons. AJ Edds will likely not be remembered fifteen years from now in the same breath as Chad Greenway and Abdul Hodge, but Edds has been so solid in his four years, especially this year that he deserves significant recognition. The Iowa defense is not only going to miss his leadership next year, but they are going to miss his quiet, yet solid-performing presence on the field. Likewise, Amari Spievey has been relatively quiet this year. One of the reasons that Iowa fans have not heard his name called is that teams have purposely been avoiding throwing the ball on his side of the field. Nonetheless, Spievey showed on Saturday why he will be playing on Sundays and why he has a chance to be an All-American. His six tackle, two interception performance became even more impressive when it was discovered that Spievey was playing through the flu. In fact, he was in need of liquids so bad that he had to receive fluids through an IV before the game. I am really looking forward to watching Spievey line up against Blair White of Michigan State this week.
Targets. It is pretty clear after the Wisconsin game that the Iowa offense clicks much better when Tony Moeaki and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos are both in the game. DJK ended up with eight receptions for 113 yards, while Moeaki ended up with three receptions for 55 yards, including a very important 24 yard touchdown reception in the third quarter. Wisconsin tried to do all it could in the first half to double team Moeaki, but as Stanzi indicated in his postgame interview, Iowa worked out of different formations in the second half in order to free up Moeaki. As teams continue to commit an extra defender to Moeaki, it will open up other receivers downfield, which will cause teams to commit to the pass, which will open up the run, and then, well you get the point.
Enjoy every moment of coverage, Hawkeye fans. The Hawks are sixth in the first BCS poll of the season. Yes, they are behind Boise State and Cincinnati in this first poll, but have no fear, if the Hawks take care of business, everything will take care of itself. Besides, the way this college football season is shaping up, Texas, Florida, and Alabama are the likely teams that will vie to play for the national championship. Yes, playing for a national championship is a once in a lifetime opportunity, but playing for the Rose Bowl would be almost as sweet. Keep up the national championship talk though because the fact that Iowa is even in the picture is a once every decade occurrence. The game this Saturday is going to be a difficult one, as Michigan State is starting to play better football and the atmosphere at night in Spartan Stadium will be rowdy. Nonetheless, I think it will be hard to pick against the Hawks.
The Manzi. Other than the lost fumble, Ricky Stanzi had an outstanding game at the helm. In only the way a solid quarterback can, Stanzi stayed calm and collected after Iowa was down early 10-0. It has been said many a time by many a writer, but Stanzi’s best attribute is his ability to have a short memory. One can certainly tell that he has quietly, yet confidently assumed the leadership role of the offense as the season has progressed. Stanzi’s maturation on the field is quickly growing and I think it is only a matter of time before he plays a complete game.
Beasts of the Line. What more can I say about Adrian Clayborn that has not already been said? Clayborn looked like a man possessed yesterday from Wisconsin’s last possession in the second quarter through the remainder of the game. This game also reinforced the fact that the Iowa coaching staff makes some of the best halftime adjustments of any coaching staff in the country. After looking porous in the first half, the Iowa defense limited the Wisconsin offense to just 58 yards in the second half, including just four yards on the ground. Something tells me that this Iowa defense is only going to get better with its run defense the rest of this season.
Unsung Heroes. There are several players on this Iowa team that are quietly turning in outstanding seasons. AJ Edds will likely not be remembered fifteen years from now in the same breath as Chad Greenway and Abdul Hodge, but Edds has been so solid in his four years, especially this year that he deserves significant recognition. The Iowa defense is not only going to miss his leadership next year, but they are going to miss his quiet, yet solid-performing presence on the field. Likewise, Amari Spievey has been relatively quiet this year. One of the reasons that Iowa fans have not heard his name called is that teams have purposely been avoiding throwing the ball on his side of the field. Nonetheless, Spievey showed on Saturday why he will be playing on Sundays and why he has a chance to be an All-American. His six tackle, two interception performance became even more impressive when it was discovered that Spievey was playing through the flu. In fact, he was in need of liquids so bad that he had to receive fluids through an IV before the game. I am really looking forward to watching Spievey line up against Blair White of Michigan State this week.
Targets. It is pretty clear after the Wisconsin game that the Iowa offense clicks much better when Tony Moeaki and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos are both in the game. DJK ended up with eight receptions for 113 yards, while Moeaki ended up with three receptions for 55 yards, including a very important 24 yard touchdown reception in the third quarter. Wisconsin tried to do all it could in the first half to double team Moeaki, but as Stanzi indicated in his postgame interview, Iowa worked out of different formations in the second half in order to free up Moeaki. As teams continue to commit an extra defender to Moeaki, it will open up other receivers downfield, which will cause teams to commit to the pass, which will open up the run, and then, well you get the point.
Enjoy every moment of coverage, Hawkeye fans. The Hawks are sixth in the first BCS poll of the season. Yes, they are behind Boise State and Cincinnati in this first poll, but have no fear, if the Hawks take care of business, everything will take care of itself. Besides, the way this college football season is shaping up, Texas, Florida, and Alabama are the likely teams that will vie to play for the national championship. Yes, playing for a national championship is a once in a lifetime opportunity, but playing for the Rose Bowl would be almost as sweet. Keep up the national championship talk though because the fact that Iowa is even in the picture is a once every decade occurrence. The game this Saturday is going to be a difficult one, as Michigan State is starting to play better football and the atmosphere at night in Spartan Stadium will be rowdy. Nonetheless, I think it will be hard to pick against the Hawks.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Wisconsin Predictions
If you would have told me before the season started that Jewel Hampton would not play a single down, Bryan Bulaga would miss three games, and that the offensive line was playing musical chairs, I would have said 3-3 at best. Nonetheless, Iowa is 6-0 for the first time since 1985 with quality wins at Penn State and against Michigan and Arizona. Iowa’s Big 10 road schedule was always brought up as a reason why the Hawkeyes could have a so-so year. Iowa passed its first test in Happy Valley and now faces an uber-critical matchup against rival Wisconsin in Madison. Here are my thoughts on the game.
Running Game. Despite an ever-changing offensive line, Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher have been able to make the most of their opportunity and are quickly establishing themselves as consistent, dependable backs. As a team, the Hawkeyes are only averaging 3.7 yards a carry compared to the 4.8 average last year. Last week, the Iowa rushing attack was able to muster together 83 total yards and while that takes into account several sacks and a bad snap, it is somewhat worrisome. As they say, it is going to be tough sledding against Wisconsin. Wisconsin allows 122 rushing yards a game, which is good enough for fifth in the Big Ten. Something will give this weekend and I think it is Iowa’s running game. Look for the Hawkeyes to struggle running the ball against a pretty salty Wisconsin defensive line led by O’Brien Schofield. Schofield leads the nation in tackles for loss with 14.5. The way Brandon Graham ate up Bulaga and Kyle Calloway last week, I think Iowa fans will be hearing Schofield’s name on a regular basis this Saturday.
Stop the Run. One thing that I have always loved about the Iowa-Wisconsin game is that it is a brand of football that harkens back to football games of yesteryear with both teams committed to running the football and both teams committed to playing a style of smash-mouth football on defense. Wisconsin running back John Clay is 17th in the nation averaging 107 yards a game. Although Wisconsin’s style of offense fits well into Iowa’s gameplan on defense, Iowa did not exactly look stout against Michigan last week when Michigan lined up in the power-I formation and ran at will. Granted, Iowa was likely still concerned about the spread and playing contain defense, leaving open the middle gaps, but it is still a cause of concern leading up to this game. Wisconsin’s offensive line brings a whole new meaning to the Keith Jackson phrase “Big Hog Mollies,” as Wisconsin averages 312 pounds on the offensive line. While I am still really excited about Christian Ballard at defensive tackle, I think that he and Karl Klug will have a long day trying to clog the “A” gaps, which would allow the linebackers the opportunity to penetrate into the backfield.
Distance. Daniel Murray has proved that he is a solid kicker in the clutch and is for all intents and purposes a steady kicker from 20-39 yards. While Murray should have had an opportunity to hit a 48 yarder before halftime last week, he still seems to struggle from long distances. Although his career long is from 47 yards, because this game will be a game of field position, Iowa will likely need to rely on Murray to put several long field goals through the uprights. Murray’s lack of distance on kickoffs is also a cause for concern, and with a dangerous David Gilreath back to receive, who knows what could happen.
Mistakes. Normally, I am an Iowa kool-aid drinker, but I think that the mistakes that have been made so far this season will begin to catch up with this team. While those mistakes obviously include the oft-discussed “pick 6s,” it also includes poor blocking technique, wrong routes, and missed assignments on defense. Any and all mistakes are compounded on the road, and I think this week is when Iowa’s magic number runs out, unfortunately.
Sorry for the bitter and very negative thoughts, Hawkeye fans. I have not had a good feeling about this game all week. With rumors flying around about the flu bug hitting the team, it makes things seem that much worse. Last week, the Wisconsin defense made Terrelle Pryor look silly, which does not bode well for Iowa’s inconsistent offense. Although I think the Iowa defense can hang tough against Wisconsin, I am afraid that they will be out on the field too long due to Iowa’s inability to sustain drives with a consistent running game. As if playing on the road was not hard enough, Wisconsin is 34-3 at Camp Randall since 2004, with those three losses coming against Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State. Perhaps the only two items that give me hope are the fact that Wisconsin’s style of offense really matches up well against Iowa’s defense, and due to the fact that, sans Ohio State, Wisconsin has not played anyone worth two beans this year (Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Wofford, MSU, Minnesota, and OSU). Thanks for the wonderful ten-game winning streak, Hawkeyes. It has been fun while it has lasted, but I am afraid that the winning streak and undefeated season will end on Saturday in Madison. If the Hawkeyes are able to win, I think they will stay undefeated going into Columbus. Likewise, if Iowa wins, I am sure Bret Bielema will give Iowa zero credit for winning the game, just like last year.
Prediction: Wisconsin 20 Iowa 17
Pick to Click: Pat Angerer
Running Game. Despite an ever-changing offensive line, Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher have been able to make the most of their opportunity and are quickly establishing themselves as consistent, dependable backs. As a team, the Hawkeyes are only averaging 3.7 yards a carry compared to the 4.8 average last year. Last week, the Iowa rushing attack was able to muster together 83 total yards and while that takes into account several sacks and a bad snap, it is somewhat worrisome. As they say, it is going to be tough sledding against Wisconsin. Wisconsin allows 122 rushing yards a game, which is good enough for fifth in the Big Ten. Something will give this weekend and I think it is Iowa’s running game. Look for the Hawkeyes to struggle running the ball against a pretty salty Wisconsin defensive line led by O’Brien Schofield. Schofield leads the nation in tackles for loss with 14.5. The way Brandon Graham ate up Bulaga and Kyle Calloway last week, I think Iowa fans will be hearing Schofield’s name on a regular basis this Saturday.
Stop the Run. One thing that I have always loved about the Iowa-Wisconsin game is that it is a brand of football that harkens back to football games of yesteryear with both teams committed to running the football and both teams committed to playing a style of smash-mouth football on defense. Wisconsin running back John Clay is 17th in the nation averaging 107 yards a game. Although Wisconsin’s style of offense fits well into Iowa’s gameplan on defense, Iowa did not exactly look stout against Michigan last week when Michigan lined up in the power-I formation and ran at will. Granted, Iowa was likely still concerned about the spread and playing contain defense, leaving open the middle gaps, but it is still a cause of concern leading up to this game. Wisconsin’s offensive line brings a whole new meaning to the Keith Jackson phrase “Big Hog Mollies,” as Wisconsin averages 312 pounds on the offensive line. While I am still really excited about Christian Ballard at defensive tackle, I think that he and Karl Klug will have a long day trying to clog the “A” gaps, which would allow the linebackers the opportunity to penetrate into the backfield.
Distance. Daniel Murray has proved that he is a solid kicker in the clutch and is for all intents and purposes a steady kicker from 20-39 yards. While Murray should have had an opportunity to hit a 48 yarder before halftime last week, he still seems to struggle from long distances. Although his career long is from 47 yards, because this game will be a game of field position, Iowa will likely need to rely on Murray to put several long field goals through the uprights. Murray’s lack of distance on kickoffs is also a cause for concern, and with a dangerous David Gilreath back to receive, who knows what could happen.
Mistakes. Normally, I am an Iowa kool-aid drinker, but I think that the mistakes that have been made so far this season will begin to catch up with this team. While those mistakes obviously include the oft-discussed “pick 6s,” it also includes poor blocking technique, wrong routes, and missed assignments on defense. Any and all mistakes are compounded on the road, and I think this week is when Iowa’s magic number runs out, unfortunately.
Sorry for the bitter and very negative thoughts, Hawkeye fans. I have not had a good feeling about this game all week. With rumors flying around about the flu bug hitting the team, it makes things seem that much worse. Last week, the Wisconsin defense made Terrelle Pryor look silly, which does not bode well for Iowa’s inconsistent offense. Although I think the Iowa defense can hang tough against Wisconsin, I am afraid that they will be out on the field too long due to Iowa’s inability to sustain drives with a consistent running game. As if playing on the road was not hard enough, Wisconsin is 34-3 at Camp Randall since 2004, with those three losses coming against Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State. Perhaps the only two items that give me hope are the fact that Wisconsin’s style of offense really matches up well against Iowa’s defense, and due to the fact that, sans Ohio State, Wisconsin has not played anyone worth two beans this year (Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Wofford, MSU, Minnesota, and OSU). Thanks for the wonderful ten-game winning streak, Hawkeyes. It has been fun while it has lasted, but I am afraid that the winning streak and undefeated season will end on Saturday in Madison. If the Hawkeyes are able to win, I think they will stay undefeated going into Columbus. Likewise, if Iowa wins, I am sure Bret Bielema will give Iowa zero credit for winning the game, just like last year.
Prediction: Wisconsin 20 Iowa 17
Pick to Click: Pat Angerer
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Thoughts on Michigan Game
The description of this year’s team could be summed up with a new phrase, the “Cardiac Kids.” Despite playing poorly at times and despite playing a slightly above average Michigan team, the Hawkeyes beat the Wolverines for only the eleventh time in school history and are now 6-0 for the first time since 1985. Like Kirk Ferentz said in his post-game interview, they do not award style points in football. Here are my thoughts on the game.
Point of Attack. Although there were several positives to take away from the game, one of the most disappointing points of the game was the way in which Michigan dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. In case you did not notice, Iowa was playing musical chairs on the offensive line. Riley Reiff got the start at left guard, but then was rotating with Dace Richardson and Julian Vandervelde both at left guard and right guard. I tend to think that the coaching staff thinks that Reiff is too good to stay off the field. It will be interesting to see what the offensive line lineup will be against Wisconsin. On the other side of the ball, the always sturdy and solid defensive line had problems shutting down the Michigan running attack giving up 195 yards on the ground. Brandon Minor and Denard Robinson made the Iowa defense look porous most of the night, which is concerning given that John Clay is on deck.
Running Back Tandem. Yes, their numbers were not anything to get excited about on Saturday, but Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher continue to play solid football at the running back position. Wegher is going to be something special before his time at Iowa is done. Robinson continues to impress me each and every week. His ability to gain two to three extra yards is a special intangible that sustains drives. I am worried about how all three (Hampton, Wegher, and Robinson) will share carries next year.
Tony, Where Have you Been? Saturday was a classic example of what Tony Moeaki is capable of doing when healthy. I think that Moeaki actually has better hands than Dallas Clark and is a better blocker. He has a promising NFL career ahead of him if he stays healthy; unfortunately, for whatever reason, he just has that unlucky bug that causes him to be injured. For the time being I hope that he can stay healthy for the rest of the year because he is an unbelievable athlete and helps the Iowa offense in so many ways.
Mistakes. The Hawkeyes have won three games this year decided by three points or fewer. While that is certainly a change from last season—when Iowa lost all four of its game by a total of twelve points—the continuous mistakes will begin to bite and will be magnified on the road. If Iowa is able to limit its mistakes (mainly not allow any pick 6s or turnovers in their own territory), they could easily win these next two games. On the other hand, costly mistakes will most certainly be worse on the road when the Iowa defense cannot rely on the home crowd to help with noise. On the bright side, it is encouraging that Iowa is 6-0 while still playing mistake-laden football.
Enjoy the moment, Iowa fans. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 and ranked 11th in the AP poll. Seasons like this do not come around very often. With that said the next two weeks are going to be as critical of a two game stretch as one could imagine. They could easily win both and could easily lose both. I do not think it is hyperbole to say that these two games will determine whether Iowa wins a Big Ten title or not. Although my prediction will come later this week, I will preliminarily say that I do not have a good feeling about this game. That feeling coupled with the fact that my Mom did not record the Michigan game, which she has done every single Saturday this year, gives me cause for concern. Crazy and superstitious? Yes. Creating a good justification for a loss on Saturday? Absolutely.
Go Hawks!
Point of Attack. Although there were several positives to take away from the game, one of the most disappointing points of the game was the way in which Michigan dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. In case you did not notice, Iowa was playing musical chairs on the offensive line. Riley Reiff got the start at left guard, but then was rotating with Dace Richardson and Julian Vandervelde both at left guard and right guard. I tend to think that the coaching staff thinks that Reiff is too good to stay off the field. It will be interesting to see what the offensive line lineup will be against Wisconsin. On the other side of the ball, the always sturdy and solid defensive line had problems shutting down the Michigan running attack giving up 195 yards on the ground. Brandon Minor and Denard Robinson made the Iowa defense look porous most of the night, which is concerning given that John Clay is on deck.
Running Back Tandem. Yes, their numbers were not anything to get excited about on Saturday, but Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher continue to play solid football at the running back position. Wegher is going to be something special before his time at Iowa is done. Robinson continues to impress me each and every week. His ability to gain two to three extra yards is a special intangible that sustains drives. I am worried about how all three (Hampton, Wegher, and Robinson) will share carries next year.
Tony, Where Have you Been? Saturday was a classic example of what Tony Moeaki is capable of doing when healthy. I think that Moeaki actually has better hands than Dallas Clark and is a better blocker. He has a promising NFL career ahead of him if he stays healthy; unfortunately, for whatever reason, he just has that unlucky bug that causes him to be injured. For the time being I hope that he can stay healthy for the rest of the year because he is an unbelievable athlete and helps the Iowa offense in so many ways.
Mistakes. The Hawkeyes have won three games this year decided by three points or fewer. While that is certainly a change from last season—when Iowa lost all four of its game by a total of twelve points—the continuous mistakes will begin to bite and will be magnified on the road. If Iowa is able to limit its mistakes (mainly not allow any pick 6s or turnovers in their own territory), they could easily win these next two games. On the other hand, costly mistakes will most certainly be worse on the road when the Iowa defense cannot rely on the home crowd to help with noise. On the bright side, it is encouraging that Iowa is 6-0 while still playing mistake-laden football.
Enjoy the moment, Iowa fans. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 and ranked 11th in the AP poll. Seasons like this do not come around very often. With that said the next two weeks are going to be as critical of a two game stretch as one could imagine. They could easily win both and could easily lose both. I do not think it is hyperbole to say that these two games will determine whether Iowa wins a Big Ten title or not. Although my prediction will come later this week, I will preliminarily say that I do not have a good feeling about this game. That feeling coupled with the fact that my Mom did not record the Michigan game, which she has done every single Saturday this year, gives me cause for concern. Crazy and superstitious? Yes. Creating a good justification for a loss on Saturday? Absolutely.
Go Hawks!
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Michigan Predictions
One of the most anticipated homecoming games in Iowa history is almost upon us. Let us all hope that this game turns out differently than the previous two homecomings—both losses. Here are my thoughts leading up to the game.
Defensive Pressure. Based on the weather forecast for Saturday, Iowa will need to look to old reliable (i.e. the Iowa defense) to force Tate Forcier into making poor decisions. Although Forcier can beat teams when a play breaks down, he is still young enough that by putting enough pressure on him, the Iowa zone defense may be able to come up with a few interceptions. If anything, the Iowa defense may struggle with Michigan’s misdirection plays and zone reads. The key for the Iowa defense will be to play solid assignment football to prevent plays from going to the outside. This well-disciplined Norm Parker coached defense has done that all year, but in the heat of the game, some guys may get too anxious and over pursue. As I mentioned in my previous post, Jon Miller of HawkeyeNation.com has been pointing to Iowa’s ability to tackle well as the key to the game, which I tend to also agree on as an important element for an Iowa victory. If the Iowa defense plays assignment football and tackles well, then I think that there is no reason why Iowa cannot keep the score of this game at an appropriate level for the offense to win the game. Keep in mind that Michigan is second in the Big Ten in scoring offense, scoring approximately 34 points a game, while Iowa is 10th nationally in scoring defense, allowing only 13 points a game. Something has to give this Saturday, and I think it is the Michigan offense.
Not If, But How and Where. I have given up on predicting that Ricky Stanzi is going to have a breakout game. Do not get me wrong, I am not down on Stanzi, as I think he is a very solid quarterback who is capable of great things; however, I also think that he is still trying to get back to the way he was playing toward the end of last season. I think Stanzi will have one or two interceptions on Saturday, but as the heading indicates, it will be a matter of where he turns the ball over and if it leads to a pick six like the Arizona and Arkansas State games. I hope that Ken O’Keefe decides to stretch the field again as he did last week. By stretching the field, it will open up the running game and if the Iowa running game gets on a roll, it could be a two touchdown victory for Iowa, unlikely but possible.
Special Teams Disadvantage. This is probably the only game in which Iowa does not have the special teams advantage. Zolton Mesko, Michigan’s punter, is considered one of the best in the country averaging 44 yards a punt this season with a long of 66 yards, while Michigan leads the Big Ten in net punting. Thus, enjoy the punting battle between Mesko and Ryan Donahue. Michigan kick returner Darryl Stonum is a dangerous one, and given Iowa’s so-so kickoff distance and kick coverage this season, he may change the field position battle with one swift return. Stonum averages 30 yards a return and has a long of 94, which he returned for a touchdown.
Big Hog Mollies. After an admitted poor game, the Iowa offensive line will need to get back on track this week to help establish the running game in order to help Stanzi and the rest of the offense. Perhaps the most concerning matchup is on the right side of the line where Julian Vandervelde and Kyle Calloway will have to face potential 1st team All American defensive end Brandon Graham who was second in the nation last year with 20 tackles for loss, and who already has 6.5 tackles for loss thus far this season. The right side of the line did not have one of their better games last week, but based on the comments made by Vandervelde, Bulaga and others this week, it sounds like the mistakes that were made are all easily correctable. One has to think that with the likely addition of Tony Moeaki, not only will the offensive line play be better, but the Iowa running game will improve this week.
If Iowa can score early and put pressure on Forcier early, good things are going to happen. Also, keep in mind that there is some chatter coming out of Ann Arbor that the Michigan offense has had several moving parts this week, with some rumors that Michigan running back Carlos Brown may be out. Likewise, Forcier appeared to have hurt his shoulder last week against Michigan State. Although no one wants to see him out of the game, one hard hit to Forcier may cause some damage. I officially take back my comments on the blackout. If the fans are able to pull it off, it is going to look very cool, especially if the rumor is true that gold towels will be handed out to fans as they enter Kinnick. By the time 7:00 rolls around, the Iowa fans will be well-oiled and ready to scream their lungs out. If Stanzi limits his turnovers and if the Iowa defense continues to play solid football, I think Iowa beats Michigan for only the eleventh time in school history.
Prediction: Iowa 24 Michigan 14
Pick to Click: Broderick Binns
Defensive Pressure. Based on the weather forecast for Saturday, Iowa will need to look to old reliable (i.e. the Iowa defense) to force Tate Forcier into making poor decisions. Although Forcier can beat teams when a play breaks down, he is still young enough that by putting enough pressure on him, the Iowa zone defense may be able to come up with a few interceptions. If anything, the Iowa defense may struggle with Michigan’s misdirection plays and zone reads. The key for the Iowa defense will be to play solid assignment football to prevent plays from going to the outside. This well-disciplined Norm Parker coached defense has done that all year, but in the heat of the game, some guys may get too anxious and over pursue. As I mentioned in my previous post, Jon Miller of HawkeyeNation.com has been pointing to Iowa’s ability to tackle well as the key to the game, which I tend to also agree on as an important element for an Iowa victory. If the Iowa defense plays assignment football and tackles well, then I think that there is no reason why Iowa cannot keep the score of this game at an appropriate level for the offense to win the game. Keep in mind that Michigan is second in the Big Ten in scoring offense, scoring approximately 34 points a game, while Iowa is 10th nationally in scoring defense, allowing only 13 points a game. Something has to give this Saturday, and I think it is the Michigan offense.
Not If, But How and Where. I have given up on predicting that Ricky Stanzi is going to have a breakout game. Do not get me wrong, I am not down on Stanzi, as I think he is a very solid quarterback who is capable of great things; however, I also think that he is still trying to get back to the way he was playing toward the end of last season. I think Stanzi will have one or two interceptions on Saturday, but as the heading indicates, it will be a matter of where he turns the ball over and if it leads to a pick six like the Arizona and Arkansas State games. I hope that Ken O’Keefe decides to stretch the field again as he did last week. By stretching the field, it will open up the running game and if the Iowa running game gets on a roll, it could be a two touchdown victory for Iowa, unlikely but possible.
Special Teams Disadvantage. This is probably the only game in which Iowa does not have the special teams advantage. Zolton Mesko, Michigan’s punter, is considered one of the best in the country averaging 44 yards a punt this season with a long of 66 yards, while Michigan leads the Big Ten in net punting. Thus, enjoy the punting battle between Mesko and Ryan Donahue. Michigan kick returner Darryl Stonum is a dangerous one, and given Iowa’s so-so kickoff distance and kick coverage this season, he may change the field position battle with one swift return. Stonum averages 30 yards a return and has a long of 94, which he returned for a touchdown.
Big Hog Mollies. After an admitted poor game, the Iowa offensive line will need to get back on track this week to help establish the running game in order to help Stanzi and the rest of the offense. Perhaps the most concerning matchup is on the right side of the line where Julian Vandervelde and Kyle Calloway will have to face potential 1st team All American defensive end Brandon Graham who was second in the nation last year with 20 tackles for loss, and who already has 6.5 tackles for loss thus far this season. The right side of the line did not have one of their better games last week, but based on the comments made by Vandervelde, Bulaga and others this week, it sounds like the mistakes that were made are all easily correctable. One has to think that with the likely addition of Tony Moeaki, not only will the offensive line play be better, but the Iowa running game will improve this week.
If Iowa can score early and put pressure on Forcier early, good things are going to happen. Also, keep in mind that there is some chatter coming out of Ann Arbor that the Michigan offense has had several moving parts this week, with some rumors that Michigan running back Carlos Brown may be out. Likewise, Forcier appeared to have hurt his shoulder last week against Michigan State. Although no one wants to see him out of the game, one hard hit to Forcier may cause some damage. I officially take back my comments on the blackout. If the fans are able to pull it off, it is going to look very cool, especially if the rumor is true that gold towels will be handed out to fans as they enter Kinnick. By the time 7:00 rolls around, the Iowa fans will be well-oiled and ready to scream their lungs out. If Stanzi limits his turnovers and if the Iowa defense continues to play solid football, I think Iowa beats Michigan for only the eleventh time in school history.
Prediction: Iowa 24 Michigan 14
Pick to Click: Broderick Binns
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Thoughts on Arkansas State Game
Well that did not exactly turn out the way it should have. As they say though, a win is a win. Iowa is now 5-0 for the first time in fourteen years. If there had been two plays or so that went differently, I think we would be talking about a 41-7 finish rather than 24-21. Nonetheless, I think there are certainly some things to take away from the win over Arkansas State.
Defensive Line Dominance. Once again the defensive line showed why they deserve all of the accolades that they have been receiving. Adrian Clayborn continues to wreak havoc in the backfield, while Karl Klug, Broderick Binns, and Christian Ballard continue to clog up running lanes. The only thing that this unit could improve on is finishing plays in the backfield. There were several times when both Clayborn and Klug had the opportunity to make the sack but were unable to finish the play. Yes, that is an extremely ridiculous criticism but, hey, there is always room for improvement, right? It is going to be a joy watching these four play for the next seven weeks.
Decisionmaking Process. Ricky Stanzi looked very sharp on the first two drives of the game throwing touchdown passes of 33 yards and 41 yards. Then, on cue, things started to go south. As one astute observer mentioned to me, it is not that Stanzi is throwing the ball inaccurately; rather, he is making poor decisions. Fortunately, that is a problem that can be fixed. I truly believe that Stanzi will continue to improve his decisionmaking and will go back to the flashes of brilliance we saw last year. Although Stanzi has thrown only eight touchdowns compared to seven interceptions, he is now 13-3 as a starter—the most important statistic.
Kicking Game. Ryan Donahue did not have one of his better games. Again, I think that I am probably being overcritical on a day in which the wind was swirling a bit, but even on a bad day for Donahue, Arkansas State had only one return for -3 yards. I will take that every day of the week. Daniel Murray’s miss looked like me off the tee when I am too quick from the top—a hard snap hook. While I still think Murray is a very solid kicker, I worry about his ability to make one in the 42-49 yard range. At this point in the season, I would hope that the coaching staff has made the decision to redshirt Trent Mossbrucker. It will be more advantageous for the continuity of the kicking game for him to have three more years at Iowa. However, I think at some point this season, Iowa will be put in a tough spot when they need a long field goal and have to rely on Murray’s untested distance.
Game Strategy. Although I know that an anti-Ken O’Keefe crowd exists, I have been thoroughly impressed with his game planning this season. Despite the excellent game planning and play calling, the execution has not been there at times. Yes, I have been saying it all year, but at some point this offense is going to being to click and execute on a consistent basis. Is this week finally the week that my prediction on this point will come true?
Although no player would ever directly say it, I am sure some of the players were looking more forward to the Michigan game than Arkansas State. As I mentioned last week, Arkansas State was a great game to have before Michigan given the similarities in offense. Along those lines, Arkansas State’s quarterback, Corey Leonard is similar to Tate Forcier, even though Leonard is, at this point in time, the better quarterback. Well, Saturday cannot arrive soon enough. Until then, be sure to look for all of the gold clothing you can find as a protest to the Sports Marketing Department’s decision to declare the Michigan game as a “blackout.” Seriously, just give it a rest on the color scheming for games. While I think that they should only have “be bold, wear gold” games, I also think that they should use a color scheme once every few years rather than twice a year. (Remember that Arizona was a “blackout”). I know that superstition is bunk, but remember how the last “blackout” against Michigan turned out? Yeah, that is also secretly why I am going to protest by wearing gold.
Defensive Line Dominance. Once again the defensive line showed why they deserve all of the accolades that they have been receiving. Adrian Clayborn continues to wreak havoc in the backfield, while Karl Klug, Broderick Binns, and Christian Ballard continue to clog up running lanes. The only thing that this unit could improve on is finishing plays in the backfield. There were several times when both Clayborn and Klug had the opportunity to make the sack but were unable to finish the play. Yes, that is an extremely ridiculous criticism but, hey, there is always room for improvement, right? It is going to be a joy watching these four play for the next seven weeks.
Decisionmaking Process. Ricky Stanzi looked very sharp on the first two drives of the game throwing touchdown passes of 33 yards and 41 yards. Then, on cue, things started to go south. As one astute observer mentioned to me, it is not that Stanzi is throwing the ball inaccurately; rather, he is making poor decisions. Fortunately, that is a problem that can be fixed. I truly believe that Stanzi will continue to improve his decisionmaking and will go back to the flashes of brilliance we saw last year. Although Stanzi has thrown only eight touchdowns compared to seven interceptions, he is now 13-3 as a starter—the most important statistic.
Kicking Game. Ryan Donahue did not have one of his better games. Again, I think that I am probably being overcritical on a day in which the wind was swirling a bit, but even on a bad day for Donahue, Arkansas State had only one return for -3 yards. I will take that every day of the week. Daniel Murray’s miss looked like me off the tee when I am too quick from the top—a hard snap hook. While I still think Murray is a very solid kicker, I worry about his ability to make one in the 42-49 yard range. At this point in the season, I would hope that the coaching staff has made the decision to redshirt Trent Mossbrucker. It will be more advantageous for the continuity of the kicking game for him to have three more years at Iowa. However, I think at some point this season, Iowa will be put in a tough spot when they need a long field goal and have to rely on Murray’s untested distance.
Game Strategy. Although I know that an anti-Ken O’Keefe crowd exists, I have been thoroughly impressed with his game planning this season. Despite the excellent game planning and play calling, the execution has not been there at times. Yes, I have been saying it all year, but at some point this offense is going to being to click and execute on a consistent basis. Is this week finally the week that my prediction on this point will come true?
Although no player would ever directly say it, I am sure some of the players were looking more forward to the Michigan game than Arkansas State. As I mentioned last week, Arkansas State was a great game to have before Michigan given the similarities in offense. Along those lines, Arkansas State’s quarterback, Corey Leonard is similar to Tate Forcier, even though Leonard is, at this point in time, the better quarterback. Well, Saturday cannot arrive soon enough. Until then, be sure to look for all of the gold clothing you can find as a protest to the Sports Marketing Department’s decision to declare the Michigan game as a “blackout.” Seriously, just give it a rest on the color scheming for games. While I think that they should only have “be bold, wear gold” games, I also think that they should use a color scheme once every few years rather than twice a year. (Remember that Arizona was a “blackout”). I know that superstition is bunk, but remember how the last “blackout” against Michigan turned out? Yeah, that is also secretly why I am going to protest by wearing gold.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Arkansas State Predictions
It is hard and sad to believe that the college football season is 1/3 of the way over. Seriously, the anticipation builds up all spring and summer and then before you know it the season is almost over. This Saturday, Iowa will seek to become 5-0 for the first time since 1995. If they play even remotely well, they should be able to cruise through this game. Here are my thoughts.
Offense on the Move. This game should be a wonderful opportunity for the offense to get on track before heading back into a rigorous Big 10 schedule. Arkansas State is ranked 102d nationally in pass defense, which is why I think it gives Ricky Stanzi such a great opportunity to throw downfield with some success and establish a rhythm with the passing game. Despite the poor Red Hawk pass defense, I do not think there is anyway that their defensive line will be able to get any type of push against the Iowa offensive line. With Bryan Bulaga back this week, I think it is certainly possible for Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher to eclipse the 200 yd mark collectively. Although some people think that Iowa will be sluggish in the wake of the Penn State win, I think that it will be quite the opposite. Nonetheless, even if the offense looks less than spectacular on Saturday, I will not be worried because I think the sky is the limit for what this offense can accomplish this season.
Hands. The overarching complaint, if you can call it that, of the Iowa team has been the drops by the receivers. Granted, Stanzi has been less than accurate most of the season, but as my Mom always said, if the ball hits you in the hands, then you need to catch it. Maybe I am being optimistic, but I think now that the entire receiver corps is healthy, it will be an entirely different unit. Jon Miller of HawkeyeNation.com has continuously quoted Kirk Ferentz as saying that this season has been one of the most disjointed in terms of continuity of personnel on offense during practice. Throwing to the same guys in practice each and every day makes a big difference as the quarterback and receivers need those repetitions in order to develop the precise timing necessary to make the passing offense work effectively. Like I said, I may be crazy, but I really think that the offense will get out of its rut on Saturday.
Defense Warm Up. I do not know what can be said about the Iowa defense that has not already been said. Fortunately, Arkansas State runs a spread offense, which will be great preparation for the following Saturday’s contest against Michigan. Although it will be very difficult to do, the defense will look to extend their streak of not allowing a rushing touchdown for 29 consecutive quarters, which is a streak that dates back to the Penn State game from last year.
Yes, Arkansas State returns several skill position players, including quarterback Corey Leonard and running back Reggie Arnold who are both very solid football players. Yes, Arkansas State returns eight starters on defense from last year’s team. Yes, last year Arkansas State took Texas deep into the fourth quarter and beat Texas A&M in College Station. Nevertheless, this Iowa team is focused and, according to Kirk Ferentz, had their best week of practice so far this season. While at the beginning of the week I thought about predicting a close game, somewhere in the neighborhood of 34-14 or so, I think that it will be a larger margin of victory. If Iowa can take care of business this week, get ready for one heck of a matchup the following week.
Prediction: Iowa 41 Arkansas State 14
Pick to Click: Derrell Johnson-Koulianos
Offense on the Move. This game should be a wonderful opportunity for the offense to get on track before heading back into a rigorous Big 10 schedule. Arkansas State is ranked 102d nationally in pass defense, which is why I think it gives Ricky Stanzi such a great opportunity to throw downfield with some success and establish a rhythm with the passing game. Despite the poor Red Hawk pass defense, I do not think there is anyway that their defensive line will be able to get any type of push against the Iowa offensive line. With Bryan Bulaga back this week, I think it is certainly possible for Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher to eclipse the 200 yd mark collectively. Although some people think that Iowa will be sluggish in the wake of the Penn State win, I think that it will be quite the opposite. Nonetheless, even if the offense looks less than spectacular on Saturday, I will not be worried because I think the sky is the limit for what this offense can accomplish this season.
Hands. The overarching complaint, if you can call it that, of the Iowa team has been the drops by the receivers. Granted, Stanzi has been less than accurate most of the season, but as my Mom always said, if the ball hits you in the hands, then you need to catch it. Maybe I am being optimistic, but I think now that the entire receiver corps is healthy, it will be an entirely different unit. Jon Miller of HawkeyeNation.com has continuously quoted Kirk Ferentz as saying that this season has been one of the most disjointed in terms of continuity of personnel on offense during practice. Throwing to the same guys in practice each and every day makes a big difference as the quarterback and receivers need those repetitions in order to develop the precise timing necessary to make the passing offense work effectively. Like I said, I may be crazy, but I really think that the offense will get out of its rut on Saturday.
Defense Warm Up. I do not know what can be said about the Iowa defense that has not already been said. Fortunately, Arkansas State runs a spread offense, which will be great preparation for the following Saturday’s contest against Michigan. Although it will be very difficult to do, the defense will look to extend their streak of not allowing a rushing touchdown for 29 consecutive quarters, which is a streak that dates back to the Penn State game from last year.
Yes, Arkansas State returns several skill position players, including quarterback Corey Leonard and running back Reggie Arnold who are both very solid football players. Yes, Arkansas State returns eight starters on defense from last year’s team. Yes, last year Arkansas State took Texas deep into the fourth quarter and beat Texas A&M in College Station. Nevertheless, this Iowa team is focused and, according to Kirk Ferentz, had their best week of practice so far this season. While at the beginning of the week I thought about predicting a close game, somewhere in the neighborhood of 34-14 or so, I think that it will be a larger margin of victory. If Iowa can take care of business this week, get ready for one heck of a matchup the following week.
Prediction: Iowa 41 Arkansas State 14
Pick to Click: Derrell Johnson-Koulianos
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