Sunday, January 3, 2010

Georgia Tech Predictions

Iowa’s reward for a 10-2 record is a berth in the school’s second Bowl Championship Series bowl game and a return visit to Kinnick South in a January 5th matchup in the Orange Bowl against Georgia Tech. While Iowa fans are still likely in a state of disbelief over the Fiesta Bowl committee’s decision to pass on the swarm of bumblebees that would have surely descended upon the greater Phoenix metropolitan area, the Orange Bowl matchup against Georgia Tech gives Iowa an opportunity to play a BCS conference opponent that is well-respected on a national level. Although the BCS has only been in existence for eleven years, a victory for Iowa would be essentially their first BCS victory since the 1959 Rose Bowl victory against California. Here are my thoughts.

Stopping the Rambling Wreck. The talk leading up to the game has been a discussion of whether the Hawkeyes can stop the Georgia Tech offense. Georgia Tech led the ACC in total offense averaging 442 yards per game, 307 of which on the ground. Georgia Tech’s unconventional, triple-option running attack is led by quarterback Josh Nesbitt who was 5th in the ACC this past season in rushing with an average of 76 yards per game. Not only did Nesbitt punish teams with his legs, but he also showed a strong ability to beat teams with his arm, as he had a pass efficiency rating of 156, which would have been good enough for first in the ACC if he had the requisite number of attempts. Nesbitt’s partner in crime, Jonathan Dwyer, is arguably the best running back that Iowa will face this year, despite already facing Evan Royster, John Clay, and Dan Herron. Dwyer averaged 6 yards a carry and 103 yards a game, which was good enough to be in the top 25 in the country for yards per game. Dwyer has been described as a power running back who has the ability to run over defenders, yet still has the speed and quickness to elude tacklers in the open field. In Georgia Tech’s two losses this year, Nesbitt and Dwyer were both shut down, as neither eclipsed fifty yards. Likewise, in their two losses, the Yellow Jackets faced teams with rushing defenses ranked near Iowa’s overall rush defense. The Yellow Jackets like to spread the wealth on the ground, however, as it is not unusual to see five or more players have three or more carries a game. On the other hand, the Yellow Jackets, while efficient when they do pass, do not throw very often. During the course of the year, Georgia Tech attempted only 159 passes, which averages out to approximately 13 attempts a game. Iowa is certainly up to the task with their stout defense that held opponents to 122 yards a game this season. Couple that statistic with the fact that Iowa defenses under Norm Parker have always played well against run-first teams, seems to be a positive for the Hawkeyes. Adrian Clayborn and Broderick Binns will be in the spotlight often, as their ability to make the proper read on the option and force Nesbitt to make a decision will allow Pat Angerer, Jeremiha Hunter and AJ Edds to roam freely and make the tackle.

Effective Possessions. After nearly a six week layoff, the Iowa offense will take the field at Landshark Stadium with what should be an entirely healthy backfield. Ricky Stanzi has been practicing at full strength since practice resumed after the Thanksgiving break. Adam Robinson was supposedly at full strength following the high ankle sprain he suffered against Michigan State, but practice reports coming from Miami have said that he has been wearing a shoulder brace. Brandon Wegher also appears to be at full speed following his lingering rib injury. The biggest surprise coming out of Miami is the offensive line rotation. It sounds as though Kyle Calloway will see some time at right guard, while Riley Reiff will play some, if not all, of the game at right tackle. Based on Kirk Ferentz’s comments this past week, the decision to put Reiff at tackle appears to come from the coaching staff being uber-impressed with Reiff’s performance this season. While Georgia Tech’s offense is an impressive unit, the defense has struggled at times this year. In their final two games of the year, the Yellow Jacket defense surrendered 323 and 339 yards, respectively, on the ground. I think that Ken O’Keefe will attempt stay true to form by using the running game to set up the play action pass. Hopefully O’Keefe will find a way to get the ball to tight ends Tony Moeaki and Allen Reisner, as they only had a combined seven receptions in Iowa’s final five games. I also look for Iowa to throw the ball downfield to their two biggest playmakers, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt when they do go to the play-action pass.

Third Part of the Game. Iowa’s special teams play received a big boost in the Ohio State game when DJK ended a long dry spell by returning a kickoff 99 yards for a touchdown. On the other hand, Iowa special teams have accounted for some miscues this season, primarily in the kicking game, as Daniel Murray has had several ill-timed missed field goals. His counterpart for the Yellow Jackets, Scott Blair, has connected on 14 of 19 this season, including making five of six from beyond 40 yards. As he has been all season long, Ryan Donahue should be an ever-steady force punting the ball for the Hawkeyes. While my call for a kickoff return for a touchdown finally came to fruition in the Ohio State game, my next bold prediction is for a blocked punt. Iowa’s last blocked punt in a bowl game came in the 2005 Capital One Bowl when Miguel Merrick blocked a Chris Jackson punt and Sean Considine returned it seven yards for a touchdown. As many of you have seen in bowl games this year, special teams, especially the kicking game, can make the difference between a win and loss.

Program Statement. Iowa’s last BCS-equivalent bowl game win came in 1959 when arguably Iowa’s greatest team of all time defeated California in the Rose Bowl 38-12. Although there is no need to compare Kirk Ferentz and Hayden Fry, a win in the Orange Bowl would earn Coach Ferentz something that Coach Fy was never able to accomplish—a major bowl win. Not only would a win over Georgia Tech validate Iowa’s spectacular season, but it would mark the end of an incredible run that Iowa has had during the 2000s. With a majority of the starters set to return next year and a solid recruiting class set to enter Iowa City this next year, a win in the Orange Bowl would place the Iowa football program at a level that may be on par with the program during the late 1950s and the mid-1980s.

While the Georgia Tech offense presents a venerable challenge, I think that Coach Parker will have the defense ready to defend it and show the entire nation what “six seconds of hell” truly means. Although it is a key in every game, turnovers will play a big role in this game. Iowa cannot afford to give Georgia Tech favorable field position through turnovers. I will also be curious to see how the long layoff affects Iowa’s ability to tackle. If Iowa limits its turnovers and tackles well, I think they will certainly be in a good position to win this game. I am sad that the Orange Bowl will be the final time that we get to see this Iowa team take the field. The incredibly journey that they took all of us on this year is something that I will not forget anytime soon. With the drama that unfolded each and every week this season, it is improbable to think that the Orange Bowl will be any different. More than any other season, the Iowa players and fans deserve a win and, if they play to their ability, will be able to leave Miami with a trophy topped with a bowl of oranges.

Prediction: Iowa 27 Georgia Tech 17

Pick to Click: Iowa Defense