Random Thoughts

With two weeks left until the opener, I figured it was about time to spend some time behind the computer and hammer out a few words and thoughts on the upcoming season, the various happenings around the Big Ten and college football in general.

Uncertainty.  With Iowa breaking camp today, my optimism does not match the optimism that many fans have prior to the beginning of the season.  It does not take an Iowa football fanatic to state the obvious that there are many holes on this team.  The biggest question, of course, is how well the new defensive line will be able to play.  Call me skeptical, but this unit is going to frustrate fans all season long.  Mike Daniels and Broderick Binns anchor the group as the only two returning starters, but neither one of them gives me the confidence to think that the defensive line can stop the run or create pressure the way Iowa fans have become accustomed to under a Norm Parker coached defense.  But Daniels was an animal last year you say.  Yes, he was impressive at times last season albeit against some of the weaker teams.  In eight Big Ten conference games last season, Daniels totaled 22 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss and one sack.  Not exactly jaw dropping numbers from someone who fans are expecting to fill in for Karl Klug, who by the way is getting looks at earning a starting position at defensive tackle for the Tennessee Titans.  We all know how disappointing of a season that Binns had last year, due in large part to the emergence of Daniels, but nevertheless, it was a big drop off from his sophomore campaign.  Dominic Alvis, the other defensive tackle listed in the initial two deeps to start fall camp is listed at 6’4 250 lbs.—not exactly a bruising body on the interior.  Carl Davis, the redshirt freshman that many fans were rightfully excited about given his 6’1 310 lbs. frame has supposedly not turned heads in practice and evidently lacks the mean streak that is required of that position.  On the end opposite Binns, Lebron Daniel is a complete unknown as a fifth year senior who has not seen sparse playing time in his first four years on campus. Perhaps true freshman Darian Cooper provides some spark to this unit, but that is a complete unknown. We all knew that the defensive line was going to be a question mark this season and that seven to eight would be shuffled in and out of the lineup, but I think given the inexperience and small size of this unit, Iowa fans are going to become very frustrated at the group’s ability to stop the run and create pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Record.  When it comes to fans and media members making predictions on this year’s team, I find it entertaining that when asked to give the win total on the season, the typical response is something to the effect of, “Well I could see them winning 9 games this season, but I could also see them winning 7 games.”  Way to go out on a limb on a deviation of two, folks.  Look, the schedule this year is very, very favorable for a young team that will likely have some growing pains, but it is just difficult for me to get my mind around this team winning 9 games.  Where things stand now, I see a 7-5 season with losses coming against Pittsburgh, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Nebraska.  There are two weeks until the opener, so maybe some additional reports out of camp will change my mind, but the aforementioned issues with the defensive line and an unknown at the second string running back position bother me to the extent that I think that Iowa fans will be seeing déjà vu in the fourth quarter of several games this season, which is to say that the Hawkeyes will keep it close, but will not be able to close out games.

The Circus. As you can tell by this point, the tone of this entry is not exactly uplifting.  Maybe it was sparked in part due to the unveiling of the new Cy-Hawk trophy yesterday at the Iowa State Fair.  I am sure you all have now seen the trophy that belongs on a mantle in someone’s house who has zero taste when it comes to decorating.  Look at some of the best rivalry games in college football:  Michigan/Ohio State, Army/Navy, and Texas/Oklahoma, none of which have a lame trophy that goes to the winner.  Yes, the old Cy-Hawk was a joke of a trophy but it at least had an association with the game of football.  Of course, this does not come as a surprise to me given the fact that this was likely approved by the same marketing department that brought you “Let’s Get Mad Again,” “The Heroes Game,” and a gimmick for every Iowa home game.  Gary Barta has now shown that he has no chutzpah to maintain the University of Iowa brand as a longstanding brand that was around long before he was born and will be around long after he is gone.  The University of Iowa and Hawkeyes brand has been severely cheapened by all of the hokey marketing efforts that his athletic department has either approved or acquiesced to over the past few years.  Does every Iowa home game have to be associated with some type of color scheme?  Is it too much to maybe just designate one home game each year as a “Be Bold, Wear Gold,” “Blackout,” or alternating stripes game?  With his willingness to desecrate Carver Hawkeye Arena with Mediacom logos on the floor, do you have any doubt that if a sponsor was willing to put up the money that he would do the same at Kinnick?  Curse the day if that were to ever happen.  The stadium atmosphere at Kinnick is starting to resemble an NBA game with constant music and cheers generated by a sound system rather than a college football game. Hell, you cannot hear the band playing On Iowa when the swarm comes out on the field thanks to the lame video of a truck rolling over a graphic of the opponent’s mascot or logo.  Say what you want about Notre Dame, but it was refreshing to see no advertisements around the stadium and no sound system-induced music every five minutes.  The purpose of gathering at that beautiful stadium nestled in between Melrose Avenue and Hawkins Drive is to watch a football game, not be amused by the Panchero’s burrito lift or whatever other outrageous gimmick that Barta’s marketing department comes up with next.  Couple those developments over the past few years with the changes to tailgating, and I am not sure if we will recognize the gameday atmosphere in Iowa City in ten years

These are my random thoughts about Iowa football at the moment.  My predictions are subject to change, but for now I remain very bearish about this football season.  Despite my current prediction, I am ready for the season to begin so that the talk around the water cooler returns to talk about the game on the field and not the recent scandals and off the field miseries that the game of college football has endured for the past four months.

Missouri Predictions

Although it has only been a few weeks since my last entry, it seems like ages ago before Iowa fans expected the Hawkeyes to walk out of TCF Bank Stadium with a victory and a likely berth in the Outback Bowl. Instead, Iowa laid an absolute egg and has a date with a 10-2 Missouri Tigers squad in the Insight Bowl. Here are some of my thoughts on the recent developments relating to Iowa football and my predictions on the game.

Minnesota Game. There are few, if any, positive thoughts to take away from Iowa’s 27-24 loss to Minnesota. A team that had aspirations of playing in another BCS game has no business losing to a 2-9 Minnesota team last in the Big Ten in rush defense and rush offense with an interim head coach at the helm. Yet, the Hawkeyes came out and played uninspired football that was icing on the cake of the most disappointing Iowa football season since 1997. Adrian Clayborn’s comments after the game, while honest and true, drove the knife through the hearts of Iowa fans saying that he felt as though the team had lost its will to win—very discouraging comments coming from a leader of a team with so much promise at the beginning of the season. The worst loss of the Kirk Ferentz era in terms of unexpectedness since the Western Michigan senior day debacle in 2007 was the perfect conclusion of went wrong this season.

DJK. As added egg in the face of the Iowa football program and Iowa fans, Iowa’s all-time leading receiver was charged with several serious misdemeanors involving the possession of drugs. Derrell Johnson-Koulianos’ engaging personality and flair for the dramatic on the football field endeared him to Iowa fans during his four years in Iowa City, all of which came to a sudden halt upon hearing the news of the charges. At the beginning of the season it seemed as though Johnson-Koulianos had matured and was focused on playing up to his potential. Despite his likely NFL draft status as a third round or fourth round pick, Johnson-Koulianos has now not only tarnished his reputation in the hearts and minds of Iowa football fans but has also likely lost several hundred thousand dollars and will have to rely on being signed as an undrafted free agent. Given the types of narcotics that were found at his house, it is clear that Johnson-Koulianos has problems beyond just the obvious of using marijuana and cocaine. For his sake, I hope that he is able to receive the treatment and counseling necessary to help him. While I think many Iowa fans will be able to forgive his transgressions, they will have a difficult time looking at the cover of last year’s Sports Illustrated and his name in the record books without shaking their head of what could have been and without having a bitter taste in their mouth that his name at Iowa will forever be associated with his actions off the field and not his play on the field.

Rumor Mill. The rumor mill was running rampant leading up to the news on Tuesday, December 7 that Johnson-Koulianos had been arrested. While many of those rumors turned out to be true as they related to Johnson-Koulianos, the subsequent rumors that were given life in the Iowa message board community ranged from rumors that 25 players were getting kicked off the team to Kirk Ferentz retiring from coaching. Prior to a press conference at which Gary Barta and Kirk Ferentz were to speak, Iowa fans, having suffered a disappointing 7-5 season, the arrest of its all-time leading scorer, began to fear the worst of the rumors and listened with eagerness on their radios throughout the state when Barta and Ferentz merely stated that Iowa has a drug-testing program and wanted to make some changes to the already diligent testing program in an effort to prevent cheating. It was nothing more and nothing less, but Iowa fans, and certain Iowa media members, expected the apocalypse to descend upon the Hayden Fry Football Complex all because of rumors on message boards that were perpetuated further through social media sites like Facebook and Twitter. After being an avid Iowa message board reader for the past ten years or so, I am proud to say that I have now been message board free for the past three weeks. Not only was I sick of the rumors flying around, but I was sick of reading comments of people who did not attend the University of Iowa, have only been Iowa fans since 2002, and who could not form intelligible sentences and thoughts. Instead, I have decided to only read stories written by journalists who have to answer to editors, a reading public, and the threat of liability for libel or slander. I implore all of you to do the same. Andrew Logue, Marc Morehouse, Mike Hlas, Jon Miller, Rob Howe, Tom Kakert, and the many other Iowa beat writers are all excellent journalists who write well and do not post stories on their blogs or in the newspaper without credible sources and without first researching the story. If you must have the latest news on Hawkeye athletics, follow any of those gentlemen on Twitter. Not only do you cut through the garbage of the message boards, but you also are able to read stories that have credibility.

Insight Bowl. When it became apparent that Iowa was likely headed to the Insight Bowl, Iowa fans collectively began to hold a glimmer of excitement with the possibility of facing future rival Nebraska. Instead, the Big 12 Conference stepped in and prevented an early start to what will be a great rivalry and the associated publicity for the two Big Ten schools. Iowa faces a very talented Missouri team that finished 10-2 on the season with an outstanding, gun-slinger quarterback, Blaine Gabbert. There is an unscientific line of thinking that the team that wants to be at the bowl game less has a greater likelihood of losing. Iowa had its sights set on great things this season as an encore to last year’s Orange Bowl win. Missouri on the other hand was passed over for the Insight Bowl last year in favor of a 6-6 Iowa State team that beat a porous Minnesota team. Reading all of the stories coming out of Tempe this week it sounds as though Missouri is loose and relaxed while the Hawkeyes have been focused and a little tense.

This matchup has scared me ever since it was announced due to the Tiger passing attack. While Gabbert will not be confused with Dan Persa or Kirk Cousins anytime soon, he has an excellent arm and gets rid of the ball in a hurry. Missouri’s offense is most similar to Northwestern, which is an unsettling thought to Iowa fans. My concern in this game is that Missouri will exploit the Iowa defensive scheme the same way that Northwestern has done for the past five years—slant routs over the middle and quick passes to the outside, both forcing Iowa’s linebackers to make plays in space. Although the return of Jeff Tarpinian will help considerably, Iowa’s defensive line will not have any time to pressure Gabbert given how quickly he gets rid of the ball. On defense, Missouri boasts a very stout defense ranking tenth in the nation in pass defense efficiency and sixth in the nation in scoring defense. Without Adam Robinson, Iowa will have to rely on senior Ricky Stanzi’s arm and decisionmaking to pick apart the Missouri secondary, something that may be easier said than done, as I expect Missouri to sit back and force Iowa to utilize true freshman Marcus Coker. Given the way this season has gone, I have no strong feeling one way or the other as to how this game will go. It is not too cliché to say that the 2011 season starts tomorrow.

The momentum heading into the offseason can be helped considerably with a win. Likewise, things on the recruiting scene look almost as good as the vaunted class of 2005, especially with the signing of running back Rodney Coe.  A win tomorrow would do wonders not only for the players but also the psyche of the fanbase.

Regardless of the outcome, I would like to see Stanzi, Clayborn, Christian Ballard, Karl Klug, Brett Greenwood, Julian Vandervelde, Paki O'Meara, Jeff Tarpinian, Paul Chaney, Jr., Brett Morse, Allen Reisner, Colin Sandeman, Daniel Murray and Ryan Donahue to have great games for all of the hard work and time that they have dedicated to the Iowa football program the last four and five years. More than anything else, win or lose, I want to see this team play the hard-nosed, discipline football that has defined the Iowa program under Kirk Ferentz. Pressuring Gabbert and establishing a ground game will keep the Hawks in this game late into the fourth quarter. For the seniors’ sake, I hope it is enough.

Prediction: Iowa 24 Missouri 21

Pick to Click: Adrian Clayborn

Thoughts on Ohio State Game

It was a fitting end to the home season. Before the game I thought that if Iowa were to lose the game it would be because of one part of the game that has plagued Iowa all year long: a special team’s blunder, the defense not being able to make a stop in the fourth quarter, or the offense not sustaining a drive late in the game. Instead, this game contained elements of all three. Freshman kicker Michael Meyer missed from 40 yards in the second quarter, the defense gave up a 12 play, 76 yard drive in the fourth quarter that put the Buckeyes ahead, and the offense was unable to sustain a drive prior to that Ohio State scoring drive and was once again unable to operate a two minute offense late in the game. While there were several other plays that Iowa was unable to execute, those three instances encapsulate what has gone wrong this season.

For the twenty six seniors that played their final game at Kinnick, it was another heartbreaking loss that simply furthered the point that the margin of victory at Iowa has been and always will be slim. In 2008, Iowa went 9-4 with the four losses coming by a total of twelve points. The margin of victory in the four losses this season has been by a total of fifteen points. College football is a fickle sport where the bounce of a ball here or there can completely change the dynamics of a game. Add the fact that 18-22 year olds are the ones involved and there is a recipe for uncertainty one week to the next. For whatever reason the ball has not bounced Iowa’s way this season. Some say that teams create their own luck, but for whatever reason Iowa has not been able to make the big plays when it has mattered this year to re-create the luck and magic of 2009.

As much as all of these losses have stung for the fans this year, they have hurt the players even more. After all of the 5 a.m. weightlifting sessions and the sprint workouts during the dead heat of July, the pain of the losses must make those workouts seem like exercises in futility—no pun intended. Thus, it was nice to see the Iowa fans give those seniors the applause and support they deserved as they ran on to the field for their final time as Iowa Hawkeyes.

At this point in the season Iowa is playing for pride. Iowa travels to rival Minnesota on Saturday where they will play at TCF Bank for the first time against a Gopher squad that has only won two games this year and sports a rush defense that is dead last in the Big Ten. While Iowa fans have circled this game as an automatic win for several months, it is hard to tell the mentality of this team given what has happened. I am looking forward to see how this team responds knowing that a quality bowl appearance is still possible, but I would not be surprised to see the offense sputter the way it has the past few weeks.

Ohio State Predictions

After a week of trying to shake the disappointment of the Northwestern loss, the entire Hawkeye nation has to face the reality of playing a very talented and daunting Ohio State Buckeye team that is going for an unprecedented sixth straight Big Ten championship. A day that has been circled on the calendars of Iowa fans since the end of the Orange Bowl lost some of its luster after Iowa’s loss last week, but with a group of seniors that have given so much to this football program playing their final game in Kinnick, I have a feeling that the Hawkeye faithful will respond in kind with a raucous environment. Here are my thoughts.


The Manzi. Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi will go down as one of the best quarterbacks in Iowa football history with a 25-7 record as a starter, 53 touchdown passes, and 6,855 yards career passing. Stanzi also gave Hawkeyes fans several memorable moments over his three years as a starter with the 4th quarter drive against Penn State in 2008, Stanzi to McNutt against Michigan State in 2009, the wild comeback against Indiana in 2009, and a win in the Orange Bowl. One of the biggest question marks heading into the season was whether Stanzi would be able to improve on the 15 interceptions he threw last season. Without question, Stanzi has made remarkable progress in this department this season. Stanzi has thrown 22 touchdowns to only four interceptions this year, two of which were arguably not his fault. More than his ability to throw a good deep ball and his ability to commandeer his offense, the Hawkeyes are going to miss Stanzi’s leadership and calm demeanor in the huddle and under center, both qualities that are impossible to teach.

Mr. Clayborn. While Adrian Clayborn has not had the type of season statistically that either he hoped for or that Iowa fans expected, he has still wreaked havoc in opponents’ backfields all season and has forced opposing offensive coordinators to structure their game plans around him. Clayborn’s career at defensive end has been one of the best at Iowa since Matt Roth. Regardless of his statistical production this season, I would argue that his decision to come back was good for him to spend another year learning the techniques and skill that he will need at the next level in the NFL. Despite what know-it-all, or at least they think so, draft experts Mel Kiper, Jr. and Todd McShay think, Clayborn will make the NFL team that drafts him very happy due to his ferocious hand fighting abilities and his quickness on the edge. Something tells me that Clayborn will give the Kinnick crowd a few reasons to cheer on Saturday.

The Ohio State. The gaudy statistics on both offense and defense that Ohio State has put up this year is scary for any Iowa fan to see, especially after the offensive and defensive woes that Iowa has had the past two weeks. Ohio State leads the Big Ten in both scoring offense and scoring defense, which is good enough for sixth and fifth nationally, respectively. To add injury to insult, Ohio State is fifth in the nation in rushing defense surrendering only 86 yards a game and sixth in the nation in pass defense allowing only 151 yards a game. Suffice it to say, the Iowa offense will have to be at its absolute best on Saturday. Although several factors have played a role in the Iowa offense sputtering the past two weeks, it has seemed as though there has been no rhythm to the offense or play calling in general. I would expect no drastic changes to the Iowa play calling on Saturday, but, as is always the case, execution and minimizing mental mistakes will be critical against this stout Buckeyes defense.

Defensive Determination. After Northwestern’s late scoring touchdown drive last week, Iowa fans have questioned whether this defense has lost its ability to stop opponents when needed after giving up late scoring drives in Iowa’s losses to Arizona, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and what should have been a touchdown against Indiana. While many have questioned the conditioning of this unit in recent weeks, it is obvious that due to the offense’s inability to sustain drives, the defense has been on the field longer than normal leading to tired players at the end of the game. The offense will have to move the ball on Saturday against Ohio State or we will see the same story of a tired Iowa defense in the fourth quarter.

With Dan Gable serving as the honorary captain, a planned Air Force flyover, and the emotions of Senior Day, it is hard to imagine Iowa coming out flat on Saturday. The proof is in the pudding, however, that this Ohio State team is very talented and will capitalize on any Hawkeye mistakes. Despite having many of the intangibles mentioned above in their favor on Saturday, the Hawkeyes will have to play a near flawless game to win. While it is certainly not an impossibility, the way this season has gone, it seems appropriate that Iowa players and fans’ hearts will be broken once again.

Prediction: Iowa 21 Ohio State 23

Pick to Click: The Seniors

Thoughts on Northwestern Game

The Iowa football team received a big dose of reality on Saturday. Moreover, Iowa fans received a dose of what they have known deep down in their hearts for a long time. Iowa football and basketball have been and always will be just below the threshold of being considered elite. Teams that have a fifth year senior starting quarterback, top wide receivers, and an all-American defensive end do not play close games back-to-back against opponents like Indiana and Northwestern, especially when Wisconsin beats that same Indiana team by 63 points. I considered characterizing Northwestern as an inferior opponent, but that would be disservice to Pat Fitzgerald and his coaching staff who have outcoached the Iowa coaching staff and for Fitzgerald’s players who have made Iowa look like a high school team the past three years. For a team composed of this talent and this leadership, it is inexcusable to come out with the number of mental mistakes that this team committed yesterday. Holding penalties, false starts, and poor decisions all contributed to a loss to a Northwestern team that has now won five out of the last six against Iowa.

Northwestern quarterback Dan Persa did what Mike Kafka, Bret Basanez, and the other short, fleet-footed Wildcat quarterbacks before him have done against Iowa—make patient throws to the outside and outrun a slow linebacker corps. Before the game Persa made a comment that he believes one of the reasons for Northwestern’s success against Iowa is that they know exactly what the Iowa defense is going to do on each play. While I do not necessarily disagree with Iowa’s defensive philosophy, it has been the same play every year against Northwestern: six-seven yard passes to the outside and, when the coverage breaks down, an opportunity for the quarterback to scramble down the field for big gains. It would be very difficult to convince me that Iowa’s cornerbacks are not athletic enough to play closer to the line of scrimmage like every other team in the country does. Likewise, while I do not have the answers to explain what needs to be done on defense on Northwestern, I do know that Iowa cannot continue to run its simple, base defense against teams like Northwestern. The best example I can think of is using a school analogy. Certain professors like answers written in a particular manner. Going into a test, students that receive the best grades are able to adapt to that style and tailor their answers accordingly. Writing an answer in the same style or, in this case, playing the same type of defense, simply for the sake of not wanting to change is just plain ignorant and leads to unexpected grades and losses.

A wise friend once told me that the Hawks will always break your heart.  Without a doubt, they always do break it and, no matter how much I care, they always will.  Nevertheless, despite knowing that the Hawkeyes and sports in general can never give back what I put in and knowing that the Hawkeyes will break my heart several times for the rest of my life, I am going to cheer my heart out for the Hawkeyes on Saturday.  I hope that everyone that is at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday gives Ricky Stanzi, Adrian Clayborn, Christian Ballard, Karl Klug, Julian Vandervelde, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Jeff Tarpinian, and Ryan Donahue the support and appreciation they deserve for all of the memories they created during their time at Iowa and to show them that win or lose, Iowa fans will continue to support their Hawkeyes.  With the Hawkeyes in the underdog role, a role they cherish, Ohio State will have to be at its best because with a turnover here and a great play there, the Hawkeyes will be in this game with a chance to upset the Buckeyes late in the game.

Northwestern Predictions

Every team has that one opponent that gives them trouble and for the Iowa Hawkeyes it is clear that the Northwestern Wildcats is that opponent. With four wins over Iowa in the last five games, the Wildcats will once again be out to ruin Iowa’s hopes for a BCS berth and a Big Ten championship. Here are my thoughts.

Offensive Playbook. With the planned return of Adam Robinson, it will be curious to see what type of offensive game plan Ken O’Keefe will roll out on Saturday. The current forecast for Saturday in Evanston is a fifty percent chance of rain, which always favors teams that run the ball well. As evident by last week’s inability to score touchdowns in the red zone, Robinson is an integral part of this offense due to his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and get those extra two-three yards on rushing attempts. The weather notwithstanding, Ricky Stanzi and the Iowa passing game should be able to move the ball at will through the air against a Northwestern defense that ranks 100th in the nation in pass defense allowing an average of 247 yards per game. If the weather is a factor, I would guess that the Iowa passing attack will revolve around throwing short routes and, hopefully, getting the ball to tight end Allen Reisner, which they failed to do last week.

Protection Problems. While not quite a spread offense, Northwestern’s passing game relies heavily on quick developing pass plays and short routes. In light of that type of offense, it is stunning that the Wildcats rank last in the Big Ten in sacks allowed this year giving up 31 sacks, which is twelve more sacks than the 10th ranked team. For an Iowa defensive line that has been unfairly criticized for its lack of sacks, it will be an interesting to watch how much pressure the defensive line can apply to Dan Persa in the pocket and how many sacks, if any, they produce on Saturday. Despite the lack of protection, Persa is the most accurate passer in the entire nation completing just above 73% of his passes. Thus, it was good timing for Iowa to have played against a quality quarterback like Ben Chappell in preparation for the Wildcat passing game.

Coverage. Just when it appeared as though Iowa was improving with its kickoff coverage, it took two steps back against Indiana allowing 25 yards a return. For the season Iowa now ranks 83 in the country allowing just over 22 yards a game. Iowa’s special teams play in prior years played a quiet role in Iowa being so successful, but this year it is arguably one of the reasons why Iowa lost against Arizona and Wisconsin. As the weather turns cold and the ball gets harder, Michael Meyer will have a more difficult time kicking the ball deep, which forces the coverage unit to be at its best. While turnovers have been the demon in the past against Northwestern, it is very possible that Iowa’s special teams woes may rear their ugly head again on Saturday.

Linebacker Limbo. Two freshman will likely start at linebacker for Iowa on Saturday, as James Morris and Shane DiBona are listed alongside Jeremiha Hunter for the Hawkeyes. Morris is playing remarkably well at a position that is not exactly easy for anyone to just jump in and play mid-season, let alone for a true freshman. Jeff Tarpinian has slowly worked his way back into some playing time as the effects of a neck stinger suffered five weeks ago continue to linger. If Tarpinian is able to go, he would likely play in the place of DiBona, who is playing for the injured Tyler Nielsen. The play of Iowa’s linebackers will be crucial on Saturday against the Wildcats who live off of short pass plays and slants over the middle. The combination of that style of offense with a pinpoint accurate passer like Persa is a recipe for potential disaster; however, as I mentioned earlier this week, this defense could statistically turn out to be one of the best defenses in the Kirk Ferentz era and, if they play to their potential, have the ability to stop the Wildcat offense.

One of the most surprising statistics that I read earlier this week is that Iowa has not beat Indiana and Northwestern in the same season since 2002. As has been the case most of the time in the last four losses to Northwestern, this Iowa team is head and shoulders above the Wildcats, but in this matchup such disparity means nothing. With some of the unintended bulletin board material that likely found its way into the Iowa football complex this week and the way the Wildcats ruined Iowa’s undefeated season last year, it would seem impossible for Iowa to overlook Northwestern this year.

Prediction: Iowa 24 Northwestern 13

Pick to Click: James Morris

Thoughts on Indiana Game

It is virtually impossible for a college football team composed of 18-22 year olds to play to their potential every game over the course of twelve Saturdays. Nonetheless, successful teams are able to overcome games in which they do not play their best. Iowa’s 18-13 win over Indiana was such a game. Here are my thoughts.

Red Zone Woes. Is there any doubt that Adam Robinson is one of the most valuable players on this team? Granted, Marcus Coker had a fantastic premiere as the starting running back rushing for 129 yards on twenty two carries, but Iowa’s offense struggled the entire game in the red zone walking away with only twelve points. With Robinson in the lineup, the Iowa offense is much more dangerous in the red zone due to Robinson’s ability to gain the extra two to three yards as he is being tackled. If Iowa had scored on one of those drives, the game would have likely had a completely different outcome. Hopefully the Iowa coaching staff re-evaluates their red zone and goaline playbook this week.

Defensive Performance. During and shortly after the game, I was thinking about how disappointing the defense played against Indiana and how disappointing they have seemed to be at some points during the season, but after further reflection, the Iowa defense actually played a great game against the Hoosiers. Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell was limited to 222 yards through the air, well short of his 296 yard average. Likewise, the Iowa defense held the Hoosiers to only 91 yards on the ground, which was also below their average of 97 yards. Iowa fans have become spoiled with Iowa defenses of yesteryear that were able to come in and, as Norm Parker is fond of saying, “put out the fire.” As I thought about it more, I wondered if the statistics reflect the perception that this defense has not been able to put out the fire. My first thought was that the defense may not be as good on third down; however, when one looks at the actual numbers, Iowa is third in the Big Ten in third down conversion defense allowing opponents to convert at only a 33% clip. My next thought was that the number of sacks are low. However, the Iowa defense has 14 sacks on the year, which ranks in the middle of the Big Ten. Last year’s defense had 31 on the season, which was also in the middle of the Big Ten. Finally, Iowa’s pass defense is the best in the Big Ten allowing only 152 yards per game in conference play. So while the perception is that this defense has struggled at times this season, the numbers tell a completely different story. Thus, it seems as though Iowa fans’ expectations might be unrealistic especially given that last year’s unit featured two of the best linebackers in the Kirk Ferentz era and a shutdown corner that Iowa has not had in a long time.

Fearless Freshman. Say what you want about the suspect Iowa special teams this season, but Michael Meyer is having a very solid season as a freshman kicker. Meyer converted on four of five attempts on Saturday with a long of 42. Meyer is nine of eleven thus far on the season. As a freshman, Nate Kaeding missed eight field goals over the course of his inaugural campaign. Meyer’s miss came on a 22 yard attempt from the right hash mark. For a right footed kicker, a short kick from that hash mark is one of the more difficult kicks to ask a kicker to convert. Meyer’s ability to shake off his 22 yard miss and connect on a crucial 27 yard field goal showed me that he has the mental ability to be a kicker at the collegiate level.

The Leader. It was clear that Ricky Stanzi did not have one of his better games on Saturday, but when it mattered in the fourth quarter, Stanzi made the throws necessary to put his team in a position to win. Stanzi’s leadership in the huddle and calm presence in the fourth quarter is something that I am going to miss next year when he is gone. With only three regular season games and a bowl game left, I have to continue to remind myself how much I enjoy watching Stanzi play quarterback and how much Iowa fans will miss the intangibles that he brings to the position.

After breathing a collective sigh of relief on Saturday after Demarlo Belcher’s dropped pass, Iowa fans now have to look forward to Iowa’s most pesky opponent, the Northwestern Wildcats. While the fans have every reason to be concerned about the Wildcats, something tells me that this team is going to be focused in practice and will come out with a chip on its shoulder next Saturday.