Sunday, November 22, 2009

Thoughts on Minnesota Game

The 120th season of Iowa football filled the entire spectrum of feelings one can feel during a season. Remember the feeling after the UNI game? A feeling that the season could be a long one. How about the win at Happy Valley? A feeling that we were on top of the world. The last second victory against MSU? A feeling that maybe this was our year. The loss against Northwestern? A feeling of what might have been. The heartbreaking loss against Ohio State? Oh so close. After riding this emotional roller coaster all year, it is hard to imagine what else we as fans might experience in the bowl game. At the end of the rollercoaster ride was the Minnesota game, which certainly was a microcosm of the entire season. Here are my thoughts.

Defense Rules the Day. The Iowa defense has been, as the defense puts it, putting out fires all season long. Yesterday’s game was no different. The Iowa defense caused two turnovers and five sacks while shutting out Minnesota for the second consecutive year. The goal line stand by the defense encompassed how the defense has responded to precarious positions all year. The defensive line looked dominate and the Iowa linebacker corps was stout. Speaking of which, Troy Johnson fit the “next man in” manta perfectly. Johnson ended up with eleven tackles, one forced fumble, a fumble recovery, and a sack. If he can build on that performance, he will be able to fill in nicely for AJ Edds. I mentioned this earlier in the year, but I am even more convinced that Iowa will miss Edds more than any other player on defense next season, even if Adrian Clayborn or Amari Spievey decide to enter the draft. Edds’ ability to cover receivers in space and be in the right position to make tackles will sorely be missed next year. I place the probability of Clayborn and Spievey turning professional at about 50/50 for each. Regardless of Iowa’s bowl opponent, I like Iowa’s chances to be able to shut down any offense in the country.

Offensive Struggles. As much as this game was a great example of how the defense has performed all season, the offense looked the way that it has looked most of the season. The inability of the offense to sustain drives and effectively establish a running game hurt Iowa again on Saturday. I think many of the problems resulted from Adam Robinson’s injury. Before Robinson left with an injury, he was averaging 6 yards a carry. Given that Brandon Wegher has been dealing with an injury to his intercostal muscles for a long time, it is no wonder that the running game has struggled at times since the Wisconsin game. My prediction about the offense stepping out did not come true, but I am really convinced that with a healthy Ricky Stanzi, Adam Robinson, and Dace Richardson, the Iowa offense will look completely different than the way they looked on Saturday.

Playbook. I know that the offensive game plans have been criticized at times this year and that people have been upset with the play calling at times. There were certainly times yesterday that I was frustrated with some of the calls that were made, but I also think that the coaches did not have the confidence in James Vandenberg to call pass plays that involve routes between the hash marks. In re-watching the game, it appears that most, if not all, of Vandenberg’s throws were either out routes or patterns that were thrown to the sideline. With more than three weeks to prepare for their bowl opponent, I am going to give the benefit of the doubt to Ken O’Keefe and Kirk Ferentz to develop a gameplan that will surprise Iowa’s opponent, especially with a healthy Stanzi.

Bowl Prediction. Iowa will able to sit back for the next two weeks and let teams ahead of them in the BCS rankings fall down, but on the other hand, they will not have the opportunity to win any games and impress voters. I still think that Iowa has all but secured a spot in the Fiesta Bowl. Even with an Oklahoma State win, the Fiesta Bowl representatives have to look at Iowa’s fanbase and the economic impact that Iowans would have in the greater Phoenix metropolitan area over the course of two to four days. Unless things change dramatically, I am going to hold strong with the Fiesta Bowl prediction that Iowa will play Boise State on January 4th in Glendale, AZ.

The comments made by AJ Edds in the postgame make me think that Iowa will be focused like they were for the 2004 Outback Bowl when they played Florida. Depending on how the rest of the regular season plays out, with a bowl victory Iowa would likely finish the season in the top five. Likewise, depending on the personnel that could return next year, I think that Iowa is looking at a preseason ranking in the top ten at worst. Get ready for a whirlwind two weeks, Iowa fans. December 6 will be an exciting day and given all of the possibilities out there, I still think we will hear Iowa announced as one of the teams to play in the Fiesta Bowl.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Minnesota Predictions

It is hard to believe that the regular season is almost over. The anticipation that begins to brew all summer once the preseason magazines begin to come out is followed by the beginning of camp and the opening weekend, and before you know it, we are at the final game. Here are my thoughts.

Leadership. Saturday marks the final time that fourteen seniors have the opportunity to don the black and gold and run out with the Swarm. I can only imagine the emotions that those seniors feel as they play in their last home game and go through the ritual of being announced to the Kinnick faithful before running out to midfield to greet their parents or loved ones. What a special moment, especially for those players from the state of Iowa that likely dreamed about playing for the Hawkeyes at a young age. One of the things that I will remember about this class is the leadership that it has provided throughout this season. AJ Edds, Pat Angerer, Rafael Eubanks, Tony Moeaki, Kyle Calloway, Trey Stross and Joe Conklin have all provided outstanding leadership and have shown the underclassmen what it takes to succeed. I think one of the primary reasons for Iowa’s success the past two seasons has been the outstanding leadership that the past two senior classes provided. During the lean years of 2006 and 2007, leadership seemed to be one of the elements that was lacking. Congratulations and thank you, seniors, for all of your hard work the past four or five years.

Offensive Explosion. Similar to my prediction of a kickoff return for a touchdown, I have been thinking that each week is the week that the Iowa offense will finally break out of its shell and explode. Minnesota ranks in the middle of the Big Ten in both run defense and pass offense, and while they have several talented linebackers with Simoni Lawrence, Nate Triplett, and Lee Campbell, they have had a tendency to be susceptible to the deep ball. I look for Iowa to come out throwing the ball from the start and will not be surprised if Ken O’Keefe calls for the play action pass with a deep route in the first series. Iowa should be back to the Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher one-two punch this week, and with the way the offensive line played last week against one of the best defensive lines in the country, I think Iowa will be able to establish the run and use the play-action pass effectively late in the game.

Double Shutout? After being shutout from the scoreboard last year, Minnesota likely has some thoughts of revenge on its mind. Unfortunately, after losing Adam Decker, their offense has resembled a very battered unit. Minnesota ranks dead last in the conference in total offense and dead last in rushing offense. To make matters worse for the Gophers, they have given up 34 sacks, which is good for first or last in the Big Ten, depending on how one views it. I am hopeful that the Iowa defense will be able to get back to its ball-hawking, turnover ways. Iowa has not had a meaningful turnover since Indiana. The key to Iowa’s success towards the end of last year and during the 9-0 run was the ability of the defense to force turnovers and setup the Iowa offense with good field position. Be sure to enjoy it while it lasts, because it very well could be the last home game for Adrian Clayborn and Amari Spievey, who certainly are in the discussion for being in the starting lineup for the All-Ferentz era team. Likewise, this could be one of the last games that Norm Parker coaches. Evidently, he has not been attending practices and has been struggling with his health since the Northwestern game. The attitude and consistency that Norm Parker has brought to Iowa defenses for the last eleven seasons has been remarkable. His outstanding coaching abilities, down to earth personality, and sense of a humor would certainly be missed.

Skill Players. Even when compared to the 2002 season, the skill players on this team are something that we have not seen at Iowa in awhile, if ever. There is so much talent on this team that it is a problem to distribute the wealth. I do not think Iowa has ever had hands like Marvin McNutt, big play ability like Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, the ability to throw the deep ball by Ricky Stanzi, and the athleticism of Tony Moeaki as a collective group ever. As I alluded to earlier, I really think that this is the game that we will see all of these offensive talents on display in one game. The scary part is thinking about all of the skill players that will be wearing an Iowa uniform for the next two seasons.

A win Saturday will give Iowa a very, very good opportunity to be selected as an at-large BCS team. I am of the thought of Jon Miller and many of the national pundits that an Iowa win all but guarantees the Hawkeyes a spot in the Fiesta Bowl. A BCS bowl berth would be a very handsome reward for this team given all of the adversity and odds that they have faced the entire season. I cannot think of a better way to send the seniors out than with a BCS bowl clinching win on a beautiful fall Saturday at Kinnick Stadium.

Prediction: Iowa 28 Minnesota 7

Pick to Click: The Seniors

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Thoughts on Ohio State Game

Oh so close. As I left Ohio Stadium on Saturday, I had nothing but feelings of pride for the way Iowa competed. No, I do not believe in moral victories, but there were several good things to come out of the game against the Buckeyes. Here are my thoughts.

Signal Caller. James Vandenberg’s performance on Saturday was nothing short of remarkable. While I think we had an idea that Vandenberg has a strong arm, what he showed on the field simply reinforced that notion, maybe even more than anyone outside of the Iowa football complex thought. The other quality that impressed me about Vandenberg was his poise on the field. As I have been saying all year with respect to Ricky Stanzi, the most important characteristic of a quarterback is an ability to show poise by not getting too high after great plays or getting too low after poor plays. Vandenberg seemed to mirror Stanzi in this regard and it showed, especially in the fourth quarter when Vandenberg led the Hawkeyes on an eight play, seventy yard scoring drive that ended with a ten yard touchdown pass to Marvin McNutt. While I am curious to see how Vandenberg performs this upcoming week, Iowa fans can be thankful that it appears as though the quarterback situation for the next three years will be set. If anything, Vandenberg’s performance is going to push Stanzi harder in practice this spring and into next year, which will do nothing but help Stanzi improve.

Gutsy Performance. In addition to Vandenberg, I thought Adam Robinson’s performance was illustrative of the heart that this team has shown the entire year. To think that he severely sprained his ankle just three weeks ago against Michigan State and was able to carry the ball twenty times for seventy-four yards was incredible. No, Robinson does not have great breakaway speed, but what he lacks in speed he makes up with his ability to gain that extra one or two yards, which makes a big difference between facing a third and seven situation versus third and five. I hope that Brandon Wegher will be able to move out to the slot position next year, as I think that Iowa will have two pretty special running backs in Robinson and Jewel Hampton.

Special Teams. We saw both the good and the bad with special teams. I will not go so far to say that I called the return by Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, but I did feel some sense of satisfaction when he returned the kick 99 yards to get Iowa back in the game. On the opposite side, we saw two poor kicks from Daniel Murray with the miss from 22 yards and the kickoff that went out of bounds. With the slim margin of error that Iowa had to work with in the first place, mistakes and missed opportunities like that make the margin of error paper thin, especially on the road at the Shoe. Although I think Murray will get back on track, it will interesting to see how the battle between him and Trent Mossbrucker will work out next season.

Coaching Decision. Much has been made about Kirk Ferentz’s decision to sit on the ball in Iowa’s final possession of regulation. When Iowa decided to run out the clock following the first play from the line of scrimmage, I was happy with the decision and I am still fine with the decision. Even though Iowa had some success moving the ball in the fourth quarter, the possible outcomes that could have resulted had Iowa tried to get in field goal range outweighed taking the game into overtime. In addition to the possibility of a turnover, if Iowa had tried to throw the ball with no success, the clock would have stopped and with all of their timeouts left, Ohio State might have had the opportunity to not only block a punt but also come up with their own drive, even if it would have only been with 30 seconds or so. Kirk Ferentz plays the percentages with his decisionmaking process. As I told many people after the game, if you asked the best coaches in the game what they would have done in a similar circumstance with a redshirt freshmen at the helm, I would venture to guess that 90% of them would say that they would do exactly what Kirk Ferentz did. To those calling out Kirk Ferentz and his staff for their decision, keep in mind that very coaching staff came up with an incredible game plan and have made several other crucial decisions that have allowed this team to be at 9-2.

The loss was hard to take because of the opportunities that Iowa had to win the game. As I mentioned in my last installment before the game, I noted that Iowa would have to force at least three turnovers against Ohio State to have a chance to win. Instead, they turned the ball over to the Buckeyes three times. Speaking of interceptions, while Iowa is second in the country in interceptions, they are also ranked second in the country for interceptions thrown, chew on that statistic for a bit. As we head to the final game of the season, there is still so much on the line for Iowa to accomplish. I share the same opinion as much of the media who believe that if Iowa wins against Minnesota, they will likely play in the Fiesta Bowl. If I told you that Iowa had the opportunity to go to a BCS bowl game after leaving Kinnick Stadium on September 5 when Iowa narrowly escaped with a victory against UNI, I think I would be able to guess your answer.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Ohio State Predictions

It is hard to believe that the regular season is down to two games. Can you think of a more intriguing storyline than a Big Ten Championship and Rose Bowl berth on the line with a redshirt freshmen’s first start to occur at Ohio Stadium? Given the way this season has transpired thus far, who knows what could happen on Saturday. Here are my thoughts on the game.

Quarterback Play. At the beginning of the week I thought that there was no way that James Vandenberg, even with a week of practice, would be able to lead this team to victory. That is not a slight at Vandenberg, rather it was a thought that was based in reality. As the week has progressed, however, I am starting to feel better about Vandenberg and the opportunity that is before him on Saturday. I think that Vandenberg may have a stronger arm than Ricky Stanzi. That arm strength was shown on Saturday in several of the out routes that Vandenberg threw. If Vandenberg can find a way to avoid the big mistakes and do his best to keep his composure, the Iowa offense has an opportunity to move the ball on Saturday.

Running Game. One of the more disappointing developments of the season has been the inability of the offensive line to consistently establish a running game. The talent on this line is certainly there, but the inability to consistently establish a run game has placed incredible pressure on the passing game and has resulted in the offense being forced to play from behind, resulting in more pass attempts, and thus, more opportunities for interceptions. If Adam Robinson is able to contribute 5-10 carries on Saturday it would certainly provide a big boost to the offense and lift some of the burden off of Brandon Wegher. Ohio State is, however, the best defense that Iowa has faced this entire season. Ohio State ranks first in the big ten in rush defense allowing a paltry 85 yards a game and ranks second in the Big Ten in pass defense allowing only 168 yards a game. Regardless of the outcome, if Iowa is able to score more than 14 points, I would consider it to be an extremely impressive accomplishment.

Defense the Key. While Ohio State certainly has the clear advantage when Iowa has the ball, as it has done all year, the Iowa defense can keep this team in the game. Terrelle Pryor has shown to be interception prone at times and, despite his performance at Penn State last week, is not a scary passing threat. If Adrian Clayborn and the rest of the defensive line are able to put enough pressure on Pryor to force him to make poor decisions, Iowa may be able to benefit in the field position game. One of the most important keys to this game is whether the Iowa defense can keep the game low scoring and create turnovers. If the Iowa defense can produce at least three turnovers, the Hawkeyes can stay in this game. Fortunately, Ohio State runs a traditional offense, which plays into the strength of Iowa’s defensive scheme. I would be very surprised if Ohio State is able to be successful on the ground.

Special Teams. Daniel Murray will have at least two chances on Saturday to put three points on the board. It will be absolutely crucial for him to be accurate on Saturday, as points will be hard to come by for the Iowa offense. Colin Sandeman is rumored to be playing on Saturday, which will certainly help the punt return game. The past few weeks, I have been very impressed with Derrell Johnson-Koulianos as a kick returner. He seems to have solid vision when picking a lane to run. Speaking of which, I am still waiting for the first kickoff return for a touchdown since 2002. As has been the case the entire season, Ryan Donahue will be a weapon on Saturday. His long punts may change the field position battle and help keep Ohio State out of Iowa territory, which is vital in order to keep this game low scoring.

Look, I am not going to wear black and gold shades while drinking Hawkeye kool-aid to say that Iowa is going to win this game. An Iowa win on Saturday would be something so remarkable that it is even hard to picture. Three wins in Columbus since Eisenhower was in office? The odds are stacked against Iowa in the worst way, but as I mentioned at the beginning, with the way this season has gone, who knows what may happen. If Iowa can keep the game low scoring, create at least three turnovers, and have no turnovers of their own, they will have a chance. Regardless of the outcome, I am looking forward to watch this Iowa team compete for the eleventh time this season and making my first visit to the Horseshoe.

Prediction: Ohio State 20 Iowa 13

Pick to Click: Tony Moeaki

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Thoughts on Northwestern Game

As a good friend once told me, they are the Hawks and they always break your heart. Do not get me wrong, this season has been one for the ages and I am not down on any of the players at all. It is just unfortunate that one injury totally changed the direction of this season from a path to glory to a path to uncertainty. Here are my thoughts on the game.

One Play. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that if Ricky Stanzi had not been injured, Iowa would have won the football game by more than two touchdowns. Iowa was moving the ball at will against Northwestern early and would have been able to do so for the remainder of the game. Arguably the biggest play in the game was Stanzi’s first interception that completely shifted the field position match and resulted in Iowa having the ball at their own six yard line, which led to the play Iowa fans would like to forget. Some people have questioned and criticized Ken O’Keefe’s play call on that play. While I have gone back and forth on it, I am convinced that it was not a bad call. Marvin McNutt scored on a 92 yard pass play the week before on that same play, unfortunately Corey Wootten read the play correctly and made a great play. It is ironic to think that just a week ago people were talking about what play from this season would be the most memorable: the blocked field goals against UNI, Adrian Clayborn’s blocked punt against Penn State, McNutt’s catch against Michigan State? At this point in time, it appears as though the most memorable, yet forgettable play might be Stanzi’s fumble that led to his injury.

Defense. The defense this year has been absolutely incredible in their ability to be placed in difficult situations and keep the team in the game. The defense only gave up ten points on Saturday. An offense that is incapable of scoring more than ten points does not deserve to win many games. Likewise, Iowa lost one match against Northwestern that it has been winning most of the season, the turnover margin game. Although I am sure there is statistical analysis on this next point, the probability of a team that turns the ball over four times winning a game is very low. Iowa has been playing with fire all year with their inability to put teams away, and although they were able to overcome six turnovers against Indiana, it finally caught up with them on Saturday. The defense can only respond against adversity so many times, and although they did everything possible to create turnovers, it was not enough.

Special Teams. Other than Daniel Murray’s miss from 46 yards, the special teams play was vastly improved from Indiana. Ryan Donahue’s 73 yard punt was what we have expected from him the entire year. Likewise, I was very impressed with the return game. Derrell Johnson-Koulianos was impressive on kickoff returns and Tyler Sash was more than serviceable when he was forced into punt return duty.

Penalties. I am going to comment on penalties with two caveats. First, Iowa has been the recipient of several favorable calls and non-calls this season. Second, officiating is part of the game and if the official throws a flag, then that is the call on the field. With that said, why in the world was there a holding penalty called against Rafael Eubanks on Brandon Wegher’s touchdown run? Explain to me the logic in the defender getting flat out beat and out-muscled and then penalizing the lineman? There were also several missed defensive holding calls on Northwestern, but again, a team should be able to overcome those calls.

Well, we are essentially down to a two game season going from talk about a Rose Bowl trip to the potential of falling all the way to the Outback Bowl. Granted, if you would have told me at the beginning of the year that we would be 9-1 at this point in the season, I would have accepted it in an instance. The way in which Iowa lost to Northwestern was more upsetting and is why Hawkeye fans have been in a state of shock and, in some cases, a state of anger. It is now the James Vandenberg show from here on out. Can you imagine a more high-pressure situation for the first start of a redshirt freshmen quarterback than at Ohio Stadium with a Rose Bowl berth and Big Ten championship at stake? While I think that the chances are low, there is a reason teams play the game. With a week of practice, Vandenberg will look more comfortable under center on Saturday. If the defense can limit Ohio State to ten points and if Iowa commits no turnovers, Iowa has a chance.

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Northwestern Predictions

Any other year this game would be a game that Iowa would need to become bowl eligible or to improve its bowl position. This game and this season, however, is a totally different story. To make matters even more interesting, Iowa has not exactly played well against Northwestern at home, thus this game has all of the elements of a classic Big Ten showdown. Here are my thoughts.

Another Quarterback Showdown. Despite their lackluster play so far this year, the Big Ten’s quarterbacks are, in my humble opinion, an underrated group. Ricky Stanzi has shown uncanny leadership. Scott Tolzien is an efficient and steady passer. Kirk Cousins has the tools to play at the next level. Tate Forcier is a fiery signal caller who will only get better. Terrelle Pryor is an incredible athlete still learning his role at quarterback. Daryll Clark as the elder statesmen of the bunch has his team headed toward another BCS bowl berth. Finally, Mike Kafka is arguably the best all-around quarterback in the league. Kafka leads the league in passing yards per game with a 243 average and leads the league in total offense with an average of 271 yards a game. To say he means a lot to his team would be an understatement, as he is responsible for approximately 69% of Northwestern’s offense this season. Like his predecessor, C.J. Bacher, Kafka has the ability to pick apart a defense with short routes and precise passes. Unlike Bacher, however, Kafka can be deadly with his legs. Although the Northwestern injury report did not list Kafka under any status, it will be pretty incredible if he goes the entire game without his hamstring flaring up at some point. Pat Fitzgerald can say all he wants, but a hamstring injury that causes a player to miss an entire half does not suddenly get better in a week. If Kafka does indeed play, there is no way that he will be playing at a capacity higher than seventy-five percent. His backup, Dan Persa, is a steady quarterback, but is not good enough to beat this Iowa defense with his arm or legs.

Defensive Looks. Just so that you are prepared for it on Saturday, Northwestern will be able to move the ball at six and seven yard increments for most of the day. One of the keys to preventing Northwestern from marching up and down the field is the ability of Iowa’s front four to get penetration to disrupt the timing of the Northwestern passing attack. Granted, most of Northwestern’s pass plays are predicated on short routes leaving almost no time to even have a chance for the defense to get to the quarterback, but the front seven’s ability to disrupt the timing and force the quarterback to improvise will be important to shutting down the Wildcat attack. Other than Kafka, Northwestern does not have much of a running threat ranking 10th in the Big Ten in rushing offense at 121 yards a game. Look for Pat Angerer and AJ Edds to have busy days as they drop back in coverage and contain the Northwestern receivers to their initial 6 or 7 yards and no more. Because of health concerns, it sounds as though Norm Parker will be spending the rest of the year in the press box. Although his presence on the field will be missed, I do not think that having Parker in the press box will have much effect on the defense.

Stretching the Field. If Northwestern saw anything from the film from Iowa’s win against Indiana, they likely saw how Iowa was able to exploit Indiana with the play-action waggle. Indiana had eight, sometimes nine, defenders in the box, just begging Iowa to beat them deep. With the wind at its back, Iowa did just that scoring on consecutive series with just two plays. Given the forecast for Saturday, I think we will see Iowa set-up the play action early on by going to Brandon Wegher often. Northwestern’s defense is beaten up, as they have had twenty different players start for them on defense this season, including nine different players in the defensive backfield. I also hope that Ken O’Keefe gets Stanzi off on the right foot by slowly working him into the game by throwing short routes to Tony Moeaki and the rest of the receiving corps. Iowa has had a tendency to look for the deep ball on first down early in the game, and while I am happy with O’Keefe looking to throw the ball down field, I wish the timing were better. Maybe it is something that the defense is showing that leads to those calls. Either way, it would be nice to see the Iowa offense get out to an early start and move the ball convincingly.

Kicking Game. As I mentioned after the Indiana game, I think what we saw out of Iowa’s special teams was an aberration. Ryan Donahue will be back to his normal self after trying to knock one out of the park last week, which led to an eight yard punt. Likewise, I think Daniel Murray will have a few opportunities on Saturday to put some points on the board and work on increasing his trajectory. Fortunately, because Northwestern’s kicker doubles as their punter, Iowa will not have many opportunities to return a punt. Opponents have only returned ten punts against Northwestern this year, but that is due, in large part, to being dead last in the Big Ten in punting average. Given Iowa’s disaster of a punt return game last week, that is definitely a positive mark in Iowa’s column.

Normally, the week leading up to a game against Northwestern is always one filled with some anxiety due to their offensive scheme. However, I think Iowa went through their sleepwalking game of the year last week against Indiana. With all that is at stake and with the finish line of the regular season almost near, there is no way that this team will overlook Northwestern. If Kafka is a no go for the Wildcats, this game could get ugly. I think the Iowa offense gets on track and turns the keys over to the defense to do what they do best, which is stifling opponents’ offenses. Be sure to pay attention to the Ohio State/Penn State game on Saturday. An Iowa win and a Nittany Lion win almost assures Iowa a Rose Bowl berth, even if the Hawkeyes stub their toe in Columbus.

Prediction: Iowa 38 Northwestern 13

Pick to Click: Tony Moeaki

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Thoughts on Indiana Game

Once again the Hawkeyes found a way to overcome adversity to win another football game and become 9-0 on the season. We have seen all kinds of once in a lifetime type plays this season, but nothing was more bizarre than the events that unfolded during the Indiana game. Here are my thoughts on the game.

Leadership. I have said it many times this season, but Ricky Stanzi has one of the best intangible attributes of a quarterback that is impossible to coach. His ability to stay in the moment and forget what has happened, whether good or bad, is one of the best intangibles a quarterback can possess. Two of Stanzi’s interceptions can be attributed to the swirling winds in Kinnick Stadium, and another can be attributed to the umpire interfering with Keenan Davis’s route. I would echo the sentiments of Stanzi’s teammates who all have said that they would not want anyone else leading this team at quarterback. As the old golf euphemism goes, it is not how, but how many. In Stanzi’s case, it is 9-0 this season and 16-3 as a starter. I will take that person as my quarterback and leader any day of the week.

Defense. The Iowa defense answered the call yet again on Saturday. They were placed in several precarious positions and were able to hold Indiana from putting the game out of reach. Tyler Sash’s interception was something out of a video game but was certainly needed at that juncture in the game as it seemed to breathe new life into the team and the Kinnick faithful. Sash is now two interceptions away from tying Lou King and Nile Kinnick for the Iowa single season interception record of eight. With three interception prone quarterbacks on deck, it is certainly possible that the pride of Oskaloosa will be able to tie or break the record. Despite being forced to coach from the press box on Saturday due to health reasons, Norm Parker again showed why he and his defensive coaching staff are incredible at making second half adjustments. Indiana was held to only 3 points and only 117 yards of offense in the second half. Granted, I still think that Iowa got away with one with the overturned touchdown call in the third quarter, but I still think that the Iowa offense would have put up 28 points in the fourth quarter even if they would have been down 28-14. Speaking of which, maybe it is because I have been subjecting myself to Joe Buck and Tim McCarver during the World Series and, unfortunately, Terry Bradshaw’s blabbering when the BCS standings were released, but why does everyone in our society point to officiating as reasons why a team loses a game? Indiana got beat on Saturday because Iowa was the better team. The officials may have missed a call or two, but to say that it had a bearing on the outcome is ludicrous. Likewise, it is asinine to imply that the officials were intentionally trying to keep Iowa undefeated to help the Big Ten’s BCS hopes, as CBSSports writer Gregg Doyel wrote. Although it will not happen, I wish that writers who write material like that were reprimanded by not receiving press credentials or were prevented from obtaining interview access.

Special Teams Conundrum. This is not a slight at Colin Sandeman in any way, but I did not think that Iowa would miss him on Saturday as much as they did. Boy was I wrong. Yes, the wind was a factor, but Iowa’s punt return game was an adventure all day long. My prediction on Keenan Davis returning punts came true, but after mishandling his first return, Amari Spievey was given the duty. Spievey’s fumble at the end of the second quarter capped off what was one of worst halves of Iowa football that I have seen in a long time. Here is to hoping that it is a calm day this next Saturday. Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, however, looked very comfortable returning kicks on Saturday and was able to give Iowa very favorable field position on two returns, even though one was called back for a penalty. By the way, the last time Iowa returned a kickoff for a touchdown was CJ Jones’s return in the Orange Bowl, and the last kickoff return for a touchdown during the regular season was in that same 2002 season against Michigan State by Jermelle Lewis. Given some of the parallels between this season and that 2002 season, do you think a kickoff return for a touchdown is in the cards? Daniel Murray has been a very reliable kicker this season, but the yanked 44 yard attempt looked like a kick made by those people who have to make a field goal on national television during a conference championship game as part of a contest in order to win a large cash prize. Likewise, Ryan Donahue’s shanked eight yard punt was essentially a turnover, as it gave Indiana great field position and led to a Hoosier touchdown. Here is to thinking that both kickers had a poor game and will bounce back this week.

Team Mentality. In each game this season, a different person has stepped up to make that special play to vault the Hawkeyes to victory. Tyler Sash was that person against Iowa State, Adrian Clayborn against Penn State, Tony Moeaki against Michigan, and Marvin McNutt against Michigan State. While those memorable plays and performances will be engrained in our memories forever, the ability of this team to pick one another up is one of the things I will remember the most about this season. The outside world, both fans and critics, has no effect on this team. The players view each week as just another opportunity to improve and, on each Saturday this fall, play the game they love. The famous Bo Schembechler quote seems very appropriate for this year’s Iowa team: No one man is more important than the team. No one coach is more important than the team. The team, the team, the team.

Boy is this fun. The Hawkeyes are 9-0 and have an opportunity to improve to 10-0 on Saturday against a deflated Northwestern team. I know it sounds like a broken record, but I really think that the Iowa offense is close to putting together a 60 minute ballgame. With the defense continuing to play great football, I have a great feeling about Saturday’s contest.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Indiana Predictions

After a treacherous two-game road trip that resulted in sitting in the driver’s seat of the Big 10 and moving into unchartered territory as far Iowa football history is concerned, the Iowa Hawkeyes come home for what appeared, at least at the beginning of the season, to be a welcomed two-game home stand. However, with the loss of Adam Robinson and Dace Richardson and a target the size of the state on their backs, the Hawkeyes will get the Indiana Hoosiers’ best shot. Here are my thoughts.

Running Back Situation. The entire Hawkeye Nation collectively became rightfully worried on Tuesday when it was announced at Kirk Ferentz’s press conference that Robinson would be out for the remainder of the year. Robinson has grown considerably in this season to become the fourth leading rusher in the Big Ten and a reliable back. Robinson has that knack to make a three yard gain become a five or six yard gain and, perhaps most importantly, secures the football. While Brandon Wegher will do a fine job, I am not sure that he is capable of being a 20-25 carry per game running back, especially given the fact that he bruised his ribs against Michigan State. Look, I know Paki O’Meara is probably not the best running back in Division I, but get ready for him to see some playing time. O’Meara must do two things on Saturday: secure the football and successfully execute his blocking assignments. If he does those two things, you will hear absolutely zero complaints from me about O’Meara’s performance on the field. Any yards he picks up while rushing or catching the ball out of the backfield is just gravy. Some people this week have been curious as to whether true freshmen Brad Rogers will have his redshirt taken off to give Iowa another option in the backfield. I have one qualm about that possibility. If there is even the slightest hesitance about his blocking ability, then I would be inclined to keep the redshirt on Rogers. The most important asset of this team at this point in the season is Ricky Stanzi. One missed block by Rogers that leads to a hit that takes out Stanzi would spell utter doom for this team. Granted, the coaches see Rogers in practice and know what he is capable of doing, so I am not stating that I think he is poor blocker; rather I am saying why there might be a good reason to keep the redshirt on for now. Also, if Rogers loses his redshirt, Iowa would have five scholarship sophomore running backs next season.

Offensive Sets. Say what you want, but I have been very impressed with Ken O’Keefe’s game plans and play calling this season. I am curious to see what O’Keefe has in mind this Saturday given the loss of Robinson. I think we will see several four and five receiver sets and a west coast passing attack to create high percentage pass attempts. While Indiana certainly has an experienced secondary with Austin Thomas, Nick Polk, and converted wide receiver Ray Fisher, I think we will see Iowa try to stretch the field similar to the first quarter of the Arkansas State game. On the other hand, maybe Indiana plays to stop the pass opening up the Iowa ground game. Either way, I think the Iowa offense has a breakout game in which we see backup quarterback James Vandenberg late in the fourth quarter.

Edge Matchups. The Kyle Calloway/Jammie Kirlew and Bryan Bulaga/Greg Middleton matchups are going to be exciting to watch, as both matchups pit NFL caliber players against one another. Kirlew leads the Big Ten in forced fumbles, while his counterpart, Middleton, wreaked havoc against the Hawkeyes two years ago with 2.5 sacks in a 38-20 Iowa win. Although it is tough to watch the offensive tackle/defensive end battle during a game, try your best to do so because you will not be disappointed.

Defense. For some reason, the tone of the message boards and Iowa fans in general this week was one of doom and woe is me. Could Iowa lose all of their remaining games? Absolutely. Will they? Probably not. Indiana is deflated coming into this game after their loss last week to Northwestern in which they led at one point 28-3. While Indiana’s offensive statistics are pretty much all in the middle of the Big 10, do not forget how solid this Iowa defense has been all season. Indiana’s pistol offense is somewhat flashy, relying on a lot of misdirection plays, reverses, and semi-tricky plays, but this Iowa defense has shown that it can handle a variety of offensive attacks. Although Indiana’s quarterback Ben Chappell is an efficient passer, the pressure that the Iowa defensive front four will be able to apply and the ever-sturdy defensive backfield will make it a long day for Chappell.

Instead of having a fragile psyche about this game, I think Iowa fans should look forward to Saturday to see how Stanzi does if O’Keefe gives him the keys to the offense. Personally, I am interested to see who the punt returner will be on Saturday. In his call-in show on Wednesday night, Ferentz indicated that Amari Spievey would return punts. Call me crazy, but I have a hunch that Keenan Davis will be back there. Although we have been calling for it all year, I think this the game that the Hawkeyes put up some serious points on the scoreboard and win by a sizeable margin. The weather looks to be absolutely perfect for a fall Saturday in October. What better way to spend one’s Saturday than in Kinnick welcoming back the team that is 8-0 for the first time in school history, 4th in the BCS standings and, week in and week out, playing solid, fundamental football in a season that has been one for the ages.

Prediction: Iowa 31 Indiana 10

Pick to Click: Derrell Johnson-Koulianos

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Thoughts on Michigan State Game

Good seasons are defined by great games. Great seasons are defined by moments. What Iowa accomplished on Saturday was nothing short of incredible. This is a game that Hawkeye fans will forever remember where they were when Iowa scored the last second touchdown and the ensuing emotions they felt. Here are my thoughts on the game.

Special Moment. After struggling to move the ball most of the day, the Iowa offense marched 70 yards on ten plays on what people are starting to term “The Drive,” culminating in a seven yard pass from Ricky Stanzi to Marvin McNutt as time expired, in a play that certainly ranks in the top five of all-time Hawkeye football moments. Several Iowa based media outlets have posed the question as to where McNutt’s catch ranks on the all-time list of Hawkeye football moments. Did the Hawkeyes become 8-0 for the first time in school history? Yes. Did the Hawkeyes vault to fourth in the BCS standings? Yes. Does this compare to 1985 #1 vs. #2 or The Catch? Absolutely not. Sorry, Iowa fans of the 2000s, although McNutt’s catch could be the moment we remember most about this magical season, it still does not rank above those other two moments in Iowa football history. The context and background of the other two games outweighs the one surrounding this Michigan State game, at least in my opinion, but with the way this season is going, who knows what else may happen.

Finding a Way. The offense did not have one of their better games, but as I mentioned before the game, the Michigan State defense is a very solid group. Judging from the injuries that occurred during the game and the comments made by the players afterwards, this was by far the most physical game that Iowa has played this season. I do not think that I am crazy for thinking that Iowa should have won this game 24-17 had the offense converted on those two red zone possessions in the third and fourth quarters. While I certainly think one can criticize the play calls in those possessions, after watching the game again, it appeared that there were some missed blocks and perhaps some poor decisions on the part of the running backs. Speaking of running backs, Adam Robinson had a very quiet 109 yards rushing the football; however, Iowa fans should be holding their breath to hear the prognosis on his ankle. Do not be surprised to see Paki O’Meara see significant carries against Indiana due to Robinson’s injury and what appeared to be a rib injury to Brandon Wegher. I have to say, I feel pretty good in retrospect about selecting Stanzi as my pick to click for Saturday. His uncanny ability to forget mistakes and stay calm and collected when the pressure of a game is at its highest is something that you just cannot teach. His statistics certainly do not compare, but I think by the time his career is over, he will deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Chuck Long, Chuck Hartlieb, Matt Rodgers, and Brad Banks.

Another Gutty Performance. Perhaps the biggest moment in the game came in the third quarter when the Iowa defense kept Michigan State out of the endzone on 1st and Goal with the ball at the Iowa one yard line. Three consecutive gutty plays by the Iowa defense forced a Brett Swenson 23 yard field goal. It was no coincidence that Pat Angerer and AJ Edds, two seniors, played critical roles in that goal line stand. As much as it makes me sad to think about, I think Adrian Clayborn is playing himself into a solid NFL draft prospect for this year’s draft. In every game this season, it seems as though once Clayborn gets his first sack or quarterback hurry he seems to feed off of that play and become a man who is possessed for the remainder of each game.

Hands. I know I have become a broken record each and every week about Stanzi, but sooner or later, the passing offense is going to break out in a big way. The receiving weapons on this team are nothing short of an arsenal with Tony Moeaki, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Trey Stross, Marvin McNutt, Allen Reisner, Keenan Davis, and Colin Sandeman. If the running back situation is as dire as it sounds at this point in time, Iowa will likely be throwing the ball all over the field against Indiana. Count me as a fan that will enjoy watching that offensive display.

I am still in utter, joyful disbelief about what happened in the final two seconds of the Michigan State game. Moments like that come around once every five to ten years, but those moments are the reason why we love sports and why we pour all of our emotion into sports. While the next two weeks are games that Iowa should win convincingly, it is never easy in the Big 10, let alone when you are the number six team in the country with a giant target on your back. I believe that we will see the Iowa offense really start to click the next two weeks before another big game against Ohio State in the Horseshoe. For right now, I am enjoying every single moment of this season, even if it is listening to folks like Todd McShay and Jessie Palmer doubt Iowa’s legitimacy and question their chance of playing for the national championship. The words “Iowa” and “national championship” have rarely been spoken in the same sentence in my lifetime, so I am going to enjoy every second of the coverage, even if it is listening to the haters, because seasons like this only come around so often.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Michigan State Predictions

Although I am not one for hyperboles, I do not think it is a stretch to say that this is one of the most critical games for the Iowa football program in the past ten years. A win on Saturday would result in the first ever 8-0 start for an Iowa football team, a very good chance at a Big Ten championship, and a possible Rose Bowl berth, something that has not happened since 1991. Here are my thoughts leading up to the game.

Quarterback Play. Call me crazy, but I really think that Ricky Stanzi has turned the corner and will become the solid performer that we all expected him to be this year. His arm strength and precision has never really been an issue, rather it has been his decisionmaking process. Although Stanzi has always been mature beyond his years under center, I think the 4th down play on the final offensive drive last weekend really illustrates his growth with respect to the decisionmaking process. I am sure the coaching staff told him not to throw it unless the tight end was clearly wide open or if he could pick up the first down on the ground. Although Allen Reisner was open enough, Stanzi made the smart play by running out of bounds and not risking the interception. Stanzi’s performance against Wisconsin makes me think that he is going to have an outstanding game against Michigan State. His counterpart for Michigan State, Kirk Cousins, will certainly do his best to be the better quarterback in this contest. Cousins currently leads the Big Ten in pass efficiency, completing around 64% of his attempts. As goes Stanzi and Cousins, so goes their respective team. Stanzi will have to step up his game once again this week, as Michigan State’s defense has allowed only 99 yards per game on the ground, which is good enough for 19th nationally. This statistic really concerns me due to the struggles Iowa has had on the ground as of late. In my view, the quarterback who makes fewer mistakes will end up being on the winning end of this football game.

Defensive Struggle. Both Iowa and Michigan State have incredible defenses. Michigan State is probably the only team Iowa will face this year with a linebacker corps that is better than Iowa. Greg Jones, a junior, is the unequivocal leader of the Spartan defense, as he leads the Big Ten in tackles and is tied for fourth in the league in sack with five on the year. The other Michigan State linebackers, Eric Gordon and Brandon Denson, are two solid players whose names Iowa fans will likely hear regularly on Saturday. Mind you, Iowa’s defense is no slouch. Iowa leads the Big Ten in pass efficiency defense, and everyone knows that Iowa leads the nation in interceptions. Given the predicted weather for East Lansing, I hope that Iowa fans are looking forward to a classic Big Ten showdown because this game has all the making of a slugfest. After the loss of Javon Ringer and the midseason injury to Glenn Winston, Michigan State has had to rely on freshmen running back Larry Caper. This week, the Spartans will also feature another true freshmen running back, Edwin Baker in the backfield, who had his redshirt pulled last week against Northwestern. One other item that makes me think that the Iowa defensive line will have a solid game is that Michigan State has had to replace three starters from its offensive line from last year. Because Wisconsin and Michigan State are somewhat similar in their offensive approaches, I think the Iowa defense will be very well prepared for the game this week and will shut down the Spartan ground game like they did in the second half against Wisconsin.

Kicking Delight. As they always say, special teams play is crucial in any big game. Similar to the defense, both teams have very solid kicking games. Brett Swenson is 10 of 11 on the year and, as a senior, has seen his fair share of important kicks during his time. Maybe it is me, but I think one statistic that has not been emphasized enough is net punting. Iowa has had only thirteen punts returned for a total of 46 yards, which is a 3.5 yard average per return. Those “hidden” yards can make a huge difference in winning the field position battle, a battle that often determines the winner. Daniel Murray’s career best 48 yard boot at the end of the first half against Wisconsin gives the coaching staff a reason to have more confidence when the ball is in Michigan State territory. If I had to venture a guess, I would guess that Murray will have at least three opportunities to put three points up on the board on Saturday. I only need to remind you of last year’s final score of 16-13 to emphasize that field goals will likely play an important role again this weekend.

Strange Numbers. The recurring theme all week has been numbers. First, Kirk Ferentz’s record in East Lansing and that the Hawkeyes have not won in East Lansing since 1995. Second, Iowa has the opportunity to go 8-0 for the first time in school history. Well here are a few other numbers for you. Michigan State has not defeated a team ranked in the Top 50 in total defense. In case you were curious, Iowa is ranked 22nd. Likewise, Michigan State gave up 14 points to an Illinois team that has not scored more than 17 points against any 1-A opponent this entire season and gave up 38 points to a Wisconsin team that scored only 10 points against Iowa.

As unbelievable as it may sound this early in the season, the winner of this game has the inside track on representing the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl. Iowa plays three of its remaining four games at home, while Michigan State closes out the season against Minnesota on the road, Western Michigan at home, Purdue on the road, and Penn State at home. While the national pundits continue to have doubts about this Iowa team, you and I all know that they are putting together a season that will not soon be forgotten. This team just has a knack to find a way to win games. Something tells me that they will find a way to come up with a win on Saturday that continues this magical ride.

Prediction: Iowa 20 Michigan State 14

Pick to Click: Ricky Stanzi

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Thoughts on Wisconsin Game

Well this supposed “Hawk Hater,” based on my last installment, is eating some serious crow today. Although Iowa is certainly capable of winning and losing every remaining game on their schedule, there is just something about this team that makes me think that they will follow the mantra of the 2004 season by “finding a way.” Here are my thoughts on the game.

The Manzi. Other than the lost fumble, Ricky Stanzi had an outstanding game at the helm. In only the way a solid quarterback can, Stanzi stayed calm and collected after Iowa was down early 10-0. It has been said many a time by many a writer, but Stanzi’s best attribute is his ability to have a short memory. One can certainly tell that he has quietly, yet confidently assumed the leadership role of the offense as the season has progressed. Stanzi’s maturation on the field is quickly growing and I think it is only a matter of time before he plays a complete game.

Beasts of the Line. What more can I say about Adrian Clayborn that has not already been said? Clayborn looked like a man possessed yesterday from Wisconsin’s last possession in the second quarter through the remainder of the game. This game also reinforced the fact that the Iowa coaching staff makes some of the best halftime adjustments of any coaching staff in the country. After looking porous in the first half, the Iowa defense limited the Wisconsin offense to just 58 yards in the second half, including just four yards on the ground. Something tells me that this Iowa defense is only going to get better with its run defense the rest of this season.

Unsung Heroes. There are several players on this Iowa team that are quietly turning in outstanding seasons. AJ Edds will likely not be remembered fifteen years from now in the same breath as Chad Greenway and Abdul Hodge, but Edds has been so solid in his four years, especially this year that he deserves significant recognition. The Iowa defense is not only going to miss his leadership next year, but they are going to miss his quiet, yet solid-performing presence on the field. Likewise, Amari Spievey has been relatively quiet this year. One of the reasons that Iowa fans have not heard his name called is that teams have purposely been avoiding throwing the ball on his side of the field. Nonetheless, Spievey showed on Saturday why he will be playing on Sundays and why he has a chance to be an All-American. His six tackle, two interception performance became even more impressive when it was discovered that Spievey was playing through the flu. In fact, he was in need of liquids so bad that he had to receive fluids through an IV before the game. I am really looking forward to watching Spievey line up against Blair White of Michigan State this week.

Targets. It is pretty clear after the Wisconsin game that the Iowa offense clicks much better when Tony Moeaki and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos are both in the game. DJK ended up with eight receptions for 113 yards, while Moeaki ended up with three receptions for 55 yards, including a very important 24 yard touchdown reception in the third quarter. Wisconsin tried to do all it could in the first half to double team Moeaki, but as Stanzi indicated in his postgame interview, Iowa worked out of different formations in the second half in order to free up Moeaki. As teams continue to commit an extra defender to Moeaki, it will open up other receivers downfield, which will cause teams to commit to the pass, which will open up the run, and then, well you get the point.

Enjoy every moment of coverage, Hawkeye fans. The Hawks are sixth in the first BCS poll of the season. Yes, they are behind Boise State and Cincinnati in this first poll, but have no fear, if the Hawks take care of business, everything will take care of itself. Besides, the way this college football season is shaping up, Texas, Florida, and Alabama are the likely teams that will vie to play for the national championship. Yes, playing for a national championship is a once in a lifetime opportunity, but playing for the Rose Bowl would be almost as sweet. Keep up the national championship talk though because the fact that Iowa is even in the picture is a once every decade occurrence. The game this Saturday is going to be a difficult one, as Michigan State is starting to play better football and the atmosphere at night in Spartan Stadium will be rowdy. Nonetheless, I think it will be hard to pick against the Hawks.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Wisconsin Predictions

If you would have told me before the season started that Jewel Hampton would not play a single down, Bryan Bulaga would miss three games, and that the offensive line was playing musical chairs, I would have said 3-3 at best. Nonetheless, Iowa is 6-0 for the first time since 1985 with quality wins at Penn State and against Michigan and Arizona. Iowa’s Big 10 road schedule was always brought up as a reason why the Hawkeyes could have a so-so year. Iowa passed its first test in Happy Valley and now faces an uber-critical matchup against rival Wisconsin in Madison. Here are my thoughts on the game.

Running Game. Despite an ever-changing offensive line, Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher have been able to make the most of their opportunity and are quickly establishing themselves as consistent, dependable backs. As a team, the Hawkeyes are only averaging 3.7 yards a carry compared to the 4.8 average last year. Last week, the Iowa rushing attack was able to muster together 83 total yards and while that takes into account several sacks and a bad snap, it is somewhat worrisome. As they say, it is going to be tough sledding against Wisconsin. Wisconsin allows 122 rushing yards a game, which is good enough for fifth in the Big Ten. Something will give this weekend and I think it is Iowa’s running game. Look for the Hawkeyes to struggle running the ball against a pretty salty Wisconsin defensive line led by O’Brien Schofield. Schofield leads the nation in tackles for loss with 14.5. The way Brandon Graham ate up Bulaga and Kyle Calloway last week, I think Iowa fans will be hearing Schofield’s name on a regular basis this Saturday.

Stop the Run. One thing that I have always loved about the Iowa-Wisconsin game is that it is a brand of football that harkens back to football games of yesteryear with both teams committed to running the football and both teams committed to playing a style of smash-mouth football on defense. Wisconsin running back John Clay is 17th in the nation averaging 107 yards a game. Although Wisconsin’s style of offense fits well into Iowa’s gameplan on defense, Iowa did not exactly look stout against Michigan last week when Michigan lined up in the power-I formation and ran at will. Granted, Iowa was likely still concerned about the spread and playing contain defense, leaving open the middle gaps, but it is still a cause of concern leading up to this game. Wisconsin’s offensive line brings a whole new meaning to the Keith Jackson phrase “Big Hog Mollies,” as Wisconsin averages 312 pounds on the offensive line. While I am still really excited about Christian Ballard at defensive tackle, I think that he and Karl Klug will have a long day trying to clog the “A” gaps, which would allow the linebackers the opportunity to penetrate into the backfield.

Distance. Daniel Murray has proved that he is a solid kicker in the clutch and is for all intents and purposes a steady kicker from 20-39 yards. While Murray should have had an opportunity to hit a 48 yarder before halftime last week, he still seems to struggle from long distances. Although his career long is from 47 yards, because this game will be a game of field position, Iowa will likely need to rely on Murray to put several long field goals through the uprights. Murray’s lack of distance on kickoffs is also a cause for concern, and with a dangerous David Gilreath back to receive, who knows what could happen.

Mistakes. Normally, I am an Iowa kool-aid drinker, but I think that the mistakes that have been made so far this season will begin to catch up with this team. While those mistakes obviously include the oft-discussed “pick 6s,” it also includes poor blocking technique, wrong routes, and missed assignments on defense. Any and all mistakes are compounded on the road, and I think this week is when Iowa’s magic number runs out, unfortunately.

Sorry for the bitter and very negative thoughts, Hawkeye fans. I have not had a good feeling about this game all week. With rumors flying around about the flu bug hitting the team, it makes things seem that much worse. Last week, the Wisconsin defense made Terrelle Pryor look silly, which does not bode well for Iowa’s inconsistent offense. Although I think the Iowa defense can hang tough against Wisconsin, I am afraid that they will be out on the field too long due to Iowa’s inability to sustain drives with a consistent running game. As if playing on the road was not hard enough, Wisconsin is 34-3 at Camp Randall since 2004, with those three losses coming against Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State. Perhaps the only two items that give me hope are the fact that Wisconsin’s style of offense really matches up well against Iowa’s defense, and due to the fact that, sans Ohio State, Wisconsin has not played anyone worth two beans this year (Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Wofford, MSU, Minnesota, and OSU). Thanks for the wonderful ten-game winning streak, Hawkeyes. It has been fun while it has lasted, but I am afraid that the winning streak and undefeated season will end on Saturday in Madison. If the Hawkeyes are able to win, I think they will stay undefeated going into Columbus. Likewise, if Iowa wins, I am sure Bret Bielema will give Iowa zero credit for winning the game, just like last year.

Prediction: Wisconsin 20 Iowa 17

Pick to Click: Pat Angerer

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Thoughts on Michigan Game

The description of this year’s team could be summed up with a new phrase, the “Cardiac Kids.” Despite playing poorly at times and despite playing a slightly above average Michigan team, the Hawkeyes beat the Wolverines for only the eleventh time in school history and are now 6-0 for the first time since 1985. Like Kirk Ferentz said in his post-game interview, they do not award style points in football. Here are my thoughts on the game.

Point of Attack. Although there were several positives to take away from the game, one of the most disappointing points of the game was the way in which Michigan dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. In case you did not notice, Iowa was playing musical chairs on the offensive line. Riley Reiff got the start at left guard, but then was rotating with Dace Richardson and Julian Vandervelde both at left guard and right guard. I tend to think that the coaching staff thinks that Reiff is too good to stay off the field. It will be interesting to see what the offensive line lineup will be against Wisconsin. On the other side of the ball, the always sturdy and solid defensive line had problems shutting down the Michigan running attack giving up 195 yards on the ground. Brandon Minor and Denard Robinson made the Iowa defense look porous most of the night, which is concerning given that John Clay is on deck.

Running Back Tandem. Yes, their numbers were not anything to get excited about on Saturday, but Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher continue to play solid football at the running back position. Wegher is going to be something special before his time at Iowa is done. Robinson continues to impress me each and every week. His ability to gain two to three extra yards is a special intangible that sustains drives. I am worried about how all three (Hampton, Wegher, and Robinson) will share carries next year.

Tony, Where Have you Been? Saturday was a classic example of what Tony Moeaki is capable of doing when healthy. I think that Moeaki actually has better hands than Dallas Clark and is a better blocker. He has a promising NFL career ahead of him if he stays healthy; unfortunately, for whatever reason, he just has that unlucky bug that causes him to be injured. For the time being I hope that he can stay healthy for the rest of the year because he is an unbelievable athlete and helps the Iowa offense in so many ways.

Mistakes. The Hawkeyes have won three games this year decided by three points or fewer. While that is certainly a change from last season—when Iowa lost all four of its game by a total of twelve points—the continuous mistakes will begin to bite and will be magnified on the road. If Iowa is able to limit its mistakes (mainly not allow any pick 6s or turnovers in their own territory), they could easily win these next two games. On the other hand, costly mistakes will most certainly be worse on the road when the Iowa defense cannot rely on the home crowd to help with noise. On the bright side, it is encouraging that Iowa is 6-0 while still playing mistake-laden football.

Enjoy the moment, Iowa fans. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 and ranked 11th in the AP poll. Seasons like this do not come around very often. With that said the next two weeks are going to be as critical of a two game stretch as one could imagine. They could easily win both and could easily lose both. I do not think it is hyperbole to say that these two games will determine whether Iowa wins a Big Ten title or not. Although my prediction will come later this week, I will preliminarily say that I do not have a good feeling about this game. That feeling coupled with the fact that my Mom did not record the Michigan game, which she has done every single Saturday this year, gives me cause for concern. Crazy and superstitious? Yes. Creating a good justification for a loss on Saturday? Absolutely.

Go Hawks!

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Michigan Predictions

One of the most anticipated homecoming games in Iowa history is almost upon us. Let us all hope that this game turns out differently than the previous two homecomings—both losses. Here are my thoughts leading up to the game.

Defensive Pressure. Based on the weather forecast for Saturday, Iowa will need to look to old reliable (i.e. the Iowa defense) to force Tate Forcier into making poor decisions. Although Forcier can beat teams when a play breaks down, he is still young enough that by putting enough pressure on him, the Iowa zone defense may be able to come up with a few interceptions. If anything, the Iowa defense may struggle with Michigan’s misdirection plays and zone reads. The key for the Iowa defense will be to play solid assignment football to prevent plays from going to the outside. This well-disciplined Norm Parker coached defense has done that all year, but in the heat of the game, some guys may get too anxious and over pursue. As I mentioned in my previous post, Jon Miller of HawkeyeNation.com has been pointing to Iowa’s ability to tackle well as the key to the game, which I tend to also agree on as an important element for an Iowa victory. If the Iowa defense plays assignment football and tackles well, then I think that there is no reason why Iowa cannot keep the score of this game at an appropriate level for the offense to win the game. Keep in mind that Michigan is second in the Big Ten in scoring offense, scoring approximately 34 points a game, while Iowa is 10th nationally in scoring defense, allowing only 13 points a game. Something has to give this Saturday, and I think it is the Michigan offense.

Not If, But How and Where. I have given up on predicting that Ricky Stanzi is going to have a breakout game. Do not get me wrong, I am not down on Stanzi, as I think he is a very solid quarterback who is capable of great things; however, I also think that he is still trying to get back to the way he was playing toward the end of last season. I think Stanzi will have one or two interceptions on Saturday, but as the heading indicates, it will be a matter of where he turns the ball over and if it leads to a pick six like the Arizona and Arkansas State games. I hope that Ken O’Keefe decides to stretch the field again as he did last week. By stretching the field, it will open up the running game and if the Iowa running game gets on a roll, it could be a two touchdown victory for Iowa, unlikely but possible.

Special Teams Disadvantage. This is probably the only game in which Iowa does not have the special teams advantage. Zolton Mesko, Michigan’s punter, is considered one of the best in the country averaging 44 yards a punt this season with a long of 66 yards, while Michigan leads the Big Ten in net punting. Thus, enjoy the punting battle between Mesko and Ryan Donahue. Michigan kick returner Darryl Stonum is a dangerous one, and given Iowa’s so-so kickoff distance and kick coverage this season, he may change the field position battle with one swift return. Stonum averages 30 yards a return and has a long of 94, which he returned for a touchdown.

Big Hog Mollies. After an admitted poor game, the Iowa offensive line will need to get back on track this week to help establish the running game in order to help Stanzi and the rest of the offense. Perhaps the most concerning matchup is on the right side of the line where Julian Vandervelde and Kyle Calloway will have to face potential 1st team All American defensive end Brandon Graham who was second in the nation last year with 20 tackles for loss, and who already has 6.5 tackles for loss thus far this season. The right side of the line did not have one of their better games last week, but based on the comments made by Vandervelde, Bulaga and others this week, it sounds like the mistakes that were made are all easily correctable. One has to think that with the likely addition of Tony Moeaki, not only will the offensive line play be better, but the Iowa running game will improve this week.

If Iowa can score early and put pressure on Forcier early, good things are going to happen. Also, keep in mind that there is some chatter coming out of Ann Arbor that the Michigan offense has had several moving parts this week, with some rumors that Michigan running back Carlos Brown may be out. Likewise, Forcier appeared to have hurt his shoulder last week against Michigan State. Although no one wants to see him out of the game, one hard hit to Forcier may cause some damage. I officially take back my comments on the blackout. If the fans are able to pull it off, it is going to look very cool, especially if the rumor is true that gold towels will be handed out to fans as they enter Kinnick. By the time 7:00 rolls around, the Iowa fans will be well-oiled and ready to scream their lungs out. If Stanzi limits his turnovers and if the Iowa defense continues to play solid football, I think Iowa beats Michigan for only the eleventh time in school history.

Prediction: Iowa 24 Michigan 14

Pick to Click: Broderick Binns

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Thoughts on Arkansas State Game

Well that did not exactly turn out the way it should have. As they say though, a win is a win. Iowa is now 5-0 for the first time in fourteen years. If there had been two plays or so that went differently, I think we would be talking about a 41-7 finish rather than 24-21. Nonetheless, I think there are certainly some things to take away from the win over Arkansas State.

Defensive Line Dominance. Once again the defensive line showed why they deserve all of the accolades that they have been receiving. Adrian Clayborn continues to wreak havoc in the backfield, while Karl Klug, Broderick Binns, and Christian Ballard continue to clog up running lanes. The only thing that this unit could improve on is finishing plays in the backfield. There were several times when both Clayborn and Klug had the opportunity to make the sack but were unable to finish the play. Yes, that is an extremely ridiculous criticism but, hey, there is always room for improvement, right? It is going to be a joy watching these four play for the next seven weeks.

Decisionmaking Process. Ricky Stanzi looked very sharp on the first two drives of the game throwing touchdown passes of 33 yards and 41 yards. Then, on cue, things started to go south. As one astute observer mentioned to me, it is not that Stanzi is throwing the ball inaccurately; rather, he is making poor decisions. Fortunately, that is a problem that can be fixed. I truly believe that Stanzi will continue to improve his decisionmaking and will go back to the flashes of brilliance we saw last year. Although Stanzi has thrown only eight touchdowns compared to seven interceptions, he is now 13-3 as a starter—the most important statistic.

Kicking Game. Ryan Donahue did not have one of his better games. Again, I think that I am probably being overcritical on a day in which the wind was swirling a bit, but even on a bad day for Donahue, Arkansas State had only one return for -3 yards. I will take that every day of the week. Daniel Murray’s miss looked like me off the tee when I am too quick from the top—a hard snap hook. While I still think Murray is a very solid kicker, I worry about his ability to make one in the 42-49 yard range. At this point in the season, I would hope that the coaching staff has made the decision to redshirt Trent Mossbrucker. It will be more advantageous for the continuity of the kicking game for him to have three more years at Iowa. However, I think at some point this season, Iowa will be put in a tough spot when they need a long field goal and have to rely on Murray’s untested distance.

Game Strategy. Although I know that an anti-Ken O’Keefe crowd exists, I have been thoroughly impressed with his game planning this season. Despite the excellent game planning and play calling, the execution has not been there at times. Yes, I have been saying it all year, but at some point this offense is going to being to click and execute on a consistent basis. Is this week finally the week that my prediction on this point will come true?

Although no player would ever directly say it, I am sure some of the players were looking more forward to the Michigan game than Arkansas State. As I mentioned last week, Arkansas State was a great game to have before Michigan given the similarities in offense. Along those lines, Arkansas State’s quarterback, Corey Leonard is similar to Tate Forcier, even though Leonard is, at this point in time, the better quarterback. Well, Saturday cannot arrive soon enough. Until then, be sure to look for all of the gold clothing you can find as a protest to the Sports Marketing Department’s decision to declare the Michigan game as a “blackout.” Seriously, just give it a rest on the color scheming for games. While I think that they should only have “be bold, wear gold” games, I also think that they should use a color scheme once every few years rather than twice a year. (Remember that Arizona was a “blackout”). I know that superstition is bunk, but remember how the last “blackout” against Michigan turned out? Yeah, that is also secretly why I am going to protest by wearing gold.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Arkansas State Predictions

It is hard and sad to believe that the college football season is 1/3 of the way over. Seriously, the anticipation builds up all spring and summer and then before you know it the season is almost over. This Saturday, Iowa will seek to become 5-0 for the first time since 1995. If they play even remotely well, they should be able to cruise through this game. Here are my thoughts.

Offense on the Move. This game should be a wonderful opportunity for the offense to get on track before heading back into a rigorous Big 10 schedule. Arkansas State is ranked 102d nationally in pass defense, which is why I think it gives Ricky Stanzi such a great opportunity to throw downfield with some success and establish a rhythm with the passing game. Despite the poor Red Hawk pass defense, I do not think there is anyway that their defensive line will be able to get any type of push against the Iowa offensive line. With Bryan Bulaga back this week, I think it is certainly possible for Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher to eclipse the 200 yd mark collectively. Although some people think that Iowa will be sluggish in the wake of the Penn State win, I think that it will be quite the opposite. Nonetheless, even if the offense looks less than spectacular on Saturday, I will not be worried because I think the sky is the limit for what this offense can accomplish this season.

Hands. The overarching complaint, if you can call it that, of the Iowa team has been the drops by the receivers. Granted, Stanzi has been less than accurate most of the season, but as my Mom always said, if the ball hits you in the hands, then you need to catch it. Maybe I am being optimistic, but I think now that the entire receiver corps is healthy, it will be an entirely different unit. Jon Miller of HawkeyeNation.com has continuously quoted Kirk Ferentz as saying that this season has been one of the most disjointed in terms of continuity of personnel on offense during practice. Throwing to the same guys in practice each and every day makes a big difference as the quarterback and receivers need those repetitions in order to develop the precise timing necessary to make the passing offense work effectively. Like I said, I may be crazy, but I really think that the offense will get out of its rut on Saturday.

Defense Warm Up. I do not know what can be said about the Iowa defense that has not already been said. Fortunately, Arkansas State runs a spread offense, which will be great preparation for the following Saturday’s contest against Michigan. Although it will be very difficult to do, the defense will look to extend their streak of not allowing a rushing touchdown for 29 consecutive quarters, which is a streak that dates back to the Penn State game from last year.

Yes, Arkansas State returns several skill position players, including quarterback Corey Leonard and running back Reggie Arnold who are both very solid football players. Yes, Arkansas State returns eight starters on defense from last year’s team. Yes, last year Arkansas State took Texas deep into the fourth quarter and beat Texas A&M in College Station. Nevertheless, this Iowa team is focused and, according to Kirk Ferentz, had their best week of practice so far this season. While at the beginning of the week I thought about predicting a close game, somewhere in the neighborhood of 34-14 or so, I think that it will be a larger margin of victory. If Iowa can take care of business this week, get ready for one heck of a matchup the following week.

Prediction: Iowa 41 Arkansas State 14

Pick to Click: Derrell Johnson-Koulianos

Monday, September 28, 2009

Penn State Aftermath

Oh baby! That is all one can say after what arguably is one of the best wins of the Kirk Ferentz era. Iowa battled the elements and a rabid Penn State fanbase to top the then 5th ranked team in the country. As one of the 2,000 or so Iowa fans in attendance, I can say that it was well worth standing in the rain for 12 hours to watch the fourth quarter of that game. The thing that leaves me even more optimistic about the season is that this team has not even played its best football yet. Here are some of my thoughts following the game.

Defensive Line. The “six seconds of hell” mantra held true last Saturday as the Iowa defense shut down the Penn State offense following the 79 yard score in the first half. The pressure that Adrian Clayborn, Karl Klug, Christian Ballard, and Broderick Binns were able to put on Darryl Clark forced enough disruption to cause Clark to make poor choices leading him to, at least in part, throw three interceptions. While some Iowa fans continue to harp on Norm Parker for not blitzing enough, the performance put on by the defensive line is nothing but proof that blitzing is not essential to Iowa’s defensive scheme.

Bomber. I mentioned in my last installment that Ryan Donahue is a weapon that can change the field position battle. His punt that landed inside the five, which led to the safety, was the beginning of the dominance of the Iowa defense. Donahue’s ability to change field position with the swing of his leg will be an incredible advantage this season and will more likely than not win Iowa another game this year due to his ability to win the field position battle.

Game Management. Ricky Stanzi did not play one of his better games but he also did not play poorly. Stanzi was able to manage the game and calmly lead the offense in the second half after Iowa gained the lead following Adrian Clayborn’s blocked punt return for a touchdown. Yes, Stanzi’s numbers are pretty unimpressive (11 of 26 for 135 yards), but I do not think many quarterbacks would have done well in that type of weather. Stanzi should be able to get back on track this week against an Arkansas State defense that has given up a significant number of yards through the air in its first three games of the season.

Areas of Improvement. Despite the 4-0 start, there are still several areas in which Iowa can improve. Kickoff coverage on this team has been just ok this year. Currently, Iowa is giving up 19.5 games per return, which puts them at 35th nationally. Well, I guess I am being too picky. We still have not seen Ricky Stanzi play an above average game. As mentioned earlier, the upcoming game appears to be the week in which Stanzi could have a breakout performance. These are just a few of the obvious things that stand out right now. Clearly, the entire team has areas in which they can improve as evident by several comments made by Iowa players following the game. To think that this team can improve, by their own admission nonetheless, gives me great hope about things to come.

The challenge this week against Arkansas State will be to avoid the classic trap game and to see how the team plays having tasted success in an important game. As Kirk Ferentz said, it is more difficult to deal with success than adversity. I think that this Arkansas State game is a great game leading up to the Michigan game for several reasons. First, Arkansas State is a decent football team that returns several skill position players from last year’s team. Second, they run a spread offense, which is similar to the offense that Iowa will see against the Wolverines in two weeks. Although my prediction will come later in the week, I think we will see the Iowa offense finally click for the entire game as well as see the Iowa defense continue to dominate.

Go Hawks!

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Penn State Predictions

It is finally here—the opening of the Big Ten conference season and the beginning of what appears to be a competitive race. The Hawkeyes open up the conference season on the road (weird, given that the Hawkeyes are on the road for the conference opener for the 8th time in Ferentz’s eleven years at Iowa). This game has been on the minds of Penn State players since last year’s loss in Iowa City. However, like I wrote in my last post, I think the “revenge” factor is a bunch of overblown hype that has little to no bearing on the game. Nevertheless, the 100,000+ in Beaver Stadium will be ready to roll following a full day of imbibing in adult beverages. Without a doubt, this game will play a large role in shaping the Big Ten title race. Here are my thoughts leading up to the game.

Stanzi Show. It is not rocket science or a profound thought, but in order for Iowa to have a chance on Saturday, Ricky Stanzi must play like 2d half Ricky during Saturday’s first half. I noted Stanzi’s completion percentage differential between the first half and second half. If Stanzi can minimize mistakes and manage the game so that Iowa is able to sustain long drives, then the Hawks will have a chance to stay in the game.

Special, Special Teams. Ryan Donahue has turned into an absolute weapon for the Hawkeyes with his ability to pin opponents back near their goal line and have an unbelievably long hang time giving his teammates the opportunity to get down the field to tackle the returner. Through three games, Donahue has had four punts returned for a total of five yards. Yes, you read that right. Five. Penn State graduated their star kicker Kevin Kelly and have had problems in various areas of special teams. Last week against Temple, Penn State lost an onsides kick and kicker Colin Wagner is an unimpressive 2 of 4 on the season. The field position battle will be crucial in this game, and Iowa certainly has the advantage thanks to the leg of Donahue.


Six Seconds of Hell. The new rallying cry of Norm Parker’s defense became public last weekend after the Arizona game. The Iowa defense will have to continue their steady rise to becoming one of the best defenses in the country this Saturday. Yes, Penn State presents a significant challenge with Daryll Clark and Evan Royster in the backfield. Clark leads the Big 10 in yards per game and touchdowns, while Royster is turning in another impressive season, as Penn State is 7-0, including last year, when Royster runs for over 100 yards. Thus, Iowa will certainly have its hands full trying to contain those two. Keep in mind, however, that Penn State lost three All Big 10 offensive linemen from last year, and that all-time great PSU receivers Jordan Norwood, Derrick Williams, and Deon Butler are gone. So, while Penn State presents significant challenges on the offensive side of the ball, they are not the same Penn State of last season, and Iowa’s defense has certainly proved that it is capable of giving its opponent “six seconds of hell.”

Come to Penn State. Kirk Ferentz has Joe Paterno’s number when it comes to playing Joe Pa in State College as Iowa won in 2000, 2002, and 2004. Likewise, the Big Ten Network mentioned during one of their shows that Ferentz has a better winning percentage against Penn State than all of the other active coaches in the Big Ten combined, other than Jim Tressel. Penn State’s pro-style offense fits nicely into Iowa’s 4-3 base defense and Norm Parker always seems to make adjustments at halftime that shut down opponents. Do not take this as a slight to Joe Pa in any manner, but I think that Iowa has the advantage when it comes to coaching in this game.

At the beginning of the year, I initially marked this game as a loss. Regardless of the outcome last year, it is always difficult to go into Happy Valley and come away with a win. Up until about thirty seconds ago, I was going to pick Penn State to win in a close one, but I think I have convinced myself otherwise. Given Penn State’s personnel losses and the fact that they have played a ridiculously easy non-conference schedule of Akron, Syracuse, and Temple, and the fact that Iowa always seems to have an answer to Penn State’s offense, I am going to pick the Hawks. If my prediction comes to fruition, it could be the beginning of a very special season.

Prediction: Iowa 20 Penn State 17

Pick to Click
: Ricky Stanzi

Sunday, September 20, 2009

What We Learned in Week 3

In my last installment, I mentioned that we would know much more about this Iowa team by the end of the day on Saturday. Well, we certainly did learn more about this team, and what we learned was that the rest of this year could be a good one.

Brick Wall. The most important thing we learned on Saturday was that this defense has the potential to be one of Norm Parker’s best. Arizona averaged 305 yards on the ground and Nick Grigsby was the second leading rusher in the country leading up to the Iowa game. Other than the long 58 yard run by Grigsby, the Iowa defense held Arizona to only 90 yards on the ground. Along with the impressive showing by the run defense, it is evident that one of the differences in this Norm Parker defense is the overall team speed on defense. One needs to look no further than the play Adrian Clayborn made when he came from the opposite of the field to chase Grigsby down on a stretch play. If the defense continues to shut down opponents’ ground game the way they did against Arizona, we are in for a fun ride.

Boomer. Mesko who? I mentioned to several people before the season started that Ryan Donahue had the potential to be 1st team All Big Ten. Well I made that statement forgetting that Zoltan Mesko was still at Michigan. Despite that fact, I am sticking with my prediction. Donahue has averaged 44.6 yards per punt while Mesko has averaged 42.2. Although Donahue and Mesko are currently ranked 4th and 6th, respectively, in the Big Ten, by the time the season is over, they will not only be at the top of the Big Ten but, mark my words, they will be finalists for the Ray Guy Award, which is given to the nation’s top punter.

Inconsistent 1st Half. Ricky Stanzi’s Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act has at least been consistent thus far. (Quick: Is Jekyll or Hyde the bad one?). Jon Miller, publisher of HawkeyeNation.com, made a post after the Arizona game noting that in the first half of the first three games, Stanzi has a completion rate of 49.2% with an ugly efficiency rating of 93.09, while in the second half he has thrown for a completion rate of 73.3% and a 163.09 efficiency rating. I thought the use of high percentage passes would fix the problem, but Stanzi was very efficient on the first drive of the Arizona game, so that theory has now been debunked. Regardless of the solution, something needs to happen because Iowa’s success is dependant on his ability to take pressure off the Iowa running game.

Come to Penn State!!!. The Hawkeyes start out their Big Ten campaign this season at one of the most difficult venues in the entire country—Beaver Stadium in Happy Valley. Not only is the game in State College, but it is a nationally-televised night game, with a PSU declared “whiteout,” and the set of College Gameday on hand. During the week and leading up to the game you will hear the national pundits talk the “revenge” factor after Iowa’s 24-23 win last year. I am sure that Darryl Clark will throw more accurately than normal and that Evan Royster will be quicker than usually, because, you know, they are out for revenge. (Please note the sarcasm). I digress. Needless to say, it is going to be a great game and an even better atmosphere. When I mentioned that the game was nationally televised, I meant it. Everyone in the country who turns on their local ABC affiliate at 7 p.m. CST will be watching Iowa at Penn State.

Although you will have to wait for my prediction later in the week, know that some of Penn State’s weaknesses play into Iowa’s strengths and that Penn State has not been challenged at all this year.

Go Hawks!

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Thoughts on Arizona Game

By 6 p.m. on Saturday we are all going to know much more about this 2009 team. Yes, the Hawkeyes played a very, very good UNI team and beat up on little brother last Saturday, but the Arizona game, more so than the other two, will serve as a good measuring stick of whether this is going to be a great Iowa team or merely a good Iowa team. Here are some of the thoughts going through my mind leading up to the Arizona game.

Battered and Bruised. Does the fact that Iowa will be (potentially) without Bryan Bulaga and Tony Moeaki spell doom? No, not necessarily, but the lack of continuity on the offensive line certainly hurts the Hawks heading into the Big Ten slate next weekend. Likewise, although Ricky Stanzi may certainly miss having one of his favorite targets in Moeaki, he will also miss having one of the best blockers on the team not named Bulaga blocking for his running backs (that would be Moeaki). It sounds like it is purely preventative on the Moeaki front, but you have to think that each game he sits, the more it hurts his NFL draft prospects. Do I think he should play through an injury with the potential of aggravating it? Absolutely not. His health is more important, but the NFL scouts will, for better or worse, take note of the fact that for some reason he cannot string together one season of playing injury free. Here is to hoping that they both play, but I am not going to hold my breath. Likewise, what are the odds of Iowa going a week without a major injury issue this season? I say small.

Second Half in the First Half. Ricky Stanzi will need to be sharp on Saturday. Arizona boasts a very fast and physical defense. Arizona is more than capable of loading the box and letting their corners play press man coverage. Thus, it will not only be key for the Iowa receivers to create separation on their routes, but it will also be crucial for Stanzi to be accurate early in the game in order to set up the run. For whatever reason, Stanzi has looked too anxious in the first half of the first two games missing targets badly; while in the second half, he has looked like Stanzi circa 2d half against PSU. Perhaps the best way to remedy this problem is to roll him out early in the game, which will give him the opportunity to throw high percentage passes. Do not be surprised to see ole Ken O’Keefe calling plenty of pass plays early and often similar to what he did last week against Iowa State.

Field Position. Do not kid yourself, this game is going to be a close one. Ryan Donahue gives Iowa a weapon with his ability to not only boom long punts, but also his knack for making balls die down by the ten yard line. His ability to continue that trend and help Iowa win the field position battle will be an important part of the game. Speaking of special teams, Arizona had a field goal and punt blocked against them last week against Northern Arizona. Mark it down, Iowa will do something big on special teams this Saturday. Here is a fearless prediction that it involves Paul Chaney, Jr.

Boy Wonder. No, not Steve Alford. Brandon Wegher (pronounced WAY-gur) has quickly become a fan favorite following his 100 yd. performance last week against Iowa State. Like everyone else, I am excited to see what he can do against a formidable defense. I would be very surprised to see him run for more than 100 yards this week, but I also think he gives Iowa an option that they have not had since Albert Young—a running back who is a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield.

Do not overlook the fact that this game is a 2:30 start. Iowa would have had a significant advantage with an 11:00 start given the time zone difference. That is probably over analyzing a minor detail, but I was in Tempe in 2004 to watch Iowa get throttled by ASU during a 6:30-7(?) kickoff (AZ time), so who knows. If you are in the mood for a high-scoring affair, then I am afraid you will be sorely disappointed. This is going to be a defensive struggle that will likely turn on a key special teams play or a crucial mistake. Either way, I think we will know a lot about this team by the end of it.

Prediction: Iowa 21 Arizona 17

Pick to Click: Paul Chaney, Jr.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

ISU Postgame

As they say, “All is right in the universe.” After the Hawkeyes dominated in-state rival Iowa State with a convincing 35-3 win, Hawkeye fans have all breathed a collective sigh of relief. Many people wondered how this team would respond following the all too close for comfort 17-16 win over UNI, but they did respond in a convincing manner. (By the way, UNI put up 712 yards of offense in a 66-7 beat down of North Dakota). There are several positives to take away from the Iowa State game, so here we go.

Ball Hawking. Needless to say, Tyler Sash was an absolute force on Saturday. Sash grabbed three interceptions, forced one fumble and had 10 tackles. Sash’s athleticism is evident with his play at strong safety and it is certainly going to be a pleasure to watch him not only this year but for the next two years.

RRBC? My running back by committee idea is going to be all but gone by the end of the Arizona game. Adam Robinson looked more than serviceable at running back, carrying the ball 12 times for 69 yards. The bigger story at running back was the emergence of Brandon Wegher. The ballyhooed recruit from Sioux City Heelan finally had his opportunity to show the Hawkeye Nation that the hype surrounding him was more than legitimate. Wegher eclipsed the 100 yard mark on fifteen carries, including a one-yard touchdown dive. The thing that impressed me the most about Wegher was his patience waiting for running lanes to develop. It always seems to me that having such patience is a trait that takes time for young running backs to develop. He just seems to have “it.” I am really excited to see what #3 does in an Iowa uniform the next four years. I think next week we will see the following distribution of carries: Robinson 45% Wegher 45% Brinson 10%.

KOK. I know some of you are probably Ken O’Keefe haters. I am not one of them. Nevertheless, I dare anyone to complain about O’Keefe’s play calling on Saturday. He came out with an aggressive game plan geared towards the pass. In fact, he showed several four and five receiver sets, something that we do not see regularly. Keep the good times rolling this season, O’Keefe.

Offensive Line. The offensive line came out with something to prove on Saturday. Without the help of Bryan Bulaga, the offensive line gave Ricky Stanzi all day long to throw and paved the way for 191 yards of total rushing. Speaking of which, I was really impressed with Riley Reiff. To be honest, I was a little surprised that Reiff was given the nod to start at left tackle. Julian Vandervelde looked great in his return, and Josh Koeppel looked pretty solid in some time he received at center. If you have a chance to watch the replay, watch the offensive line play as the Iowa offensive line dished out several pancakes. Based on what has been said by Kirk Ferentz and Bulaga himself, it appears that he will likely play against Arizona, which is certainly a relief. The Bulaga, Richardson, Eubanks (Koeppel?), Vandervelde, and Calloway line is only going to get better as the season progresses. And that, my friends, is going to be fun to watch.

The Iowa defense had a convincing game with five interceptions and an ability to slow down Iowa State’s no-huddle, spread offense. If I had one complaint, it would be the poor tackling. I am not worried about that at all because you can guarantee that Norm Parker, Darrell Wilson, Phil Parker, and Rick Kaczenski will address that issue in practice this week.

The overwhelming concern after the game was Ricky Stanzi’s inconsistency in the first half. There were several instances in which Stanzi had all day to throw and still missed his target by a wide margin. Although I am not worried about Stanzi, it was a little disconcerting to see him miss several wide open targets.

Yes, Iowa State is not exactly a world beater, but it was still refreshing to see Iowa dominate in the manner they did. The game this week against Arizona will give us all a good indication as to the possibilities for this team.

Go Hawks!