Northwestern Predictions

Every team has that one opponent that gives them trouble and for the Iowa Hawkeyes it is clear that the Northwestern Wildcats is that opponent. With four wins over Iowa in the last five games, the Wildcats will once again be out to ruin Iowa’s hopes for a BCS berth and a Big Ten championship. Here are my thoughts.

Offensive Playbook. With the planned return of Adam Robinson, it will be curious to see what type of offensive game plan Ken O’Keefe will roll out on Saturday. The current forecast for Saturday in Evanston is a fifty percent chance of rain, which always favors teams that run the ball well. As evident by last week’s inability to score touchdowns in the red zone, Robinson is an integral part of this offense due to his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and get those extra two-three yards on rushing attempts. The weather notwithstanding, Ricky Stanzi and the Iowa passing game should be able to move the ball at will through the air against a Northwestern defense that ranks 100th in the nation in pass defense allowing an average of 247 yards per game. If the weather is a factor, I would guess that the Iowa passing attack will revolve around throwing short routes and, hopefully, getting the ball to tight end Allen Reisner, which they failed to do last week.

Protection Problems. While not quite a spread offense, Northwestern’s passing game relies heavily on quick developing pass plays and short routes. In light of that type of offense, it is stunning that the Wildcats rank last in the Big Ten in sacks allowed this year giving up 31 sacks, which is twelve more sacks than the 10th ranked team. For an Iowa defensive line that has been unfairly criticized for its lack of sacks, it will be an interesting to watch how much pressure the defensive line can apply to Dan Persa in the pocket and how many sacks, if any, they produce on Saturday. Despite the lack of protection, Persa is the most accurate passer in the entire nation completing just above 73% of his passes. Thus, it was good timing for Iowa to have played against a quality quarterback like Ben Chappell in preparation for the Wildcat passing game.

Coverage. Just when it appeared as though Iowa was improving with its kickoff coverage, it took two steps back against Indiana allowing 25 yards a return. For the season Iowa now ranks 83 in the country allowing just over 22 yards a game. Iowa’s special teams play in prior years played a quiet role in Iowa being so successful, but this year it is arguably one of the reasons why Iowa lost against Arizona and Wisconsin. As the weather turns cold and the ball gets harder, Michael Meyer will have a more difficult time kicking the ball deep, which forces the coverage unit to be at its best. While turnovers have been the demon in the past against Northwestern, it is very possible that Iowa’s special teams woes may rear their ugly head again on Saturday.

Linebacker Limbo. Two freshman will likely start at linebacker for Iowa on Saturday, as James Morris and Shane DiBona are listed alongside Jeremiha Hunter for the Hawkeyes. Morris is playing remarkably well at a position that is not exactly easy for anyone to just jump in and play mid-season, let alone for a true freshman. Jeff Tarpinian has slowly worked his way back into some playing time as the effects of a neck stinger suffered five weeks ago continue to linger. If Tarpinian is able to go, he would likely play in the place of DiBona, who is playing for the injured Tyler Nielsen. The play of Iowa’s linebackers will be crucial on Saturday against the Wildcats who live off of short pass plays and slants over the middle. The combination of that style of offense with a pinpoint accurate passer like Persa is a recipe for potential disaster; however, as I mentioned earlier this week, this defense could statistically turn out to be one of the best defenses in the Kirk Ferentz era and, if they play to their potential, have the ability to stop the Wildcat offense.

One of the most surprising statistics that I read earlier this week is that Iowa has not beat Indiana and Northwestern in the same season since 2002. As has been the case most of the time in the last four losses to Northwestern, this Iowa team is head and shoulders above the Wildcats, but in this matchup such disparity means nothing. With some of the unintended bulletin board material that likely found its way into the Iowa football complex this week and the way the Wildcats ruined Iowa’s undefeated season last year, it would seem impossible for Iowa to overlook Northwestern this year.

Prediction: Iowa 24 Northwestern 13

Pick to Click: James Morris