Pittsburgh Predictions

A week after the sting of the Iowa State loss has started to subside, Iowa fans seem to remain in a daze about this team’s true identity heading into this Saturday’s showdown with Pittsburgh.  Some of the lingering questions include whether Marcus Coker’s performance against Missouri was an aberration, whether the defensive line will struggle the entire year as much as they did against Iowa State, and whether Iowa’s defensive coaching staff has any answers for hurry-up, spread offenses.  Here are my thoughts.

Graham.  Pittsburgh’s running back, Ray Graham, leads the nation in rushing averaging 161 yards per game.  Granted, Pittsburgh has opened this season against Buffalo and Maine, neither of which would be considered world beaters or be confused for having stellar defenses, so the numbers may be a bit misleading.  Nevertheless, Iowa’s run defense was paper thin against an Iowa State rushing attack that by the end of the year will likely be considered mediocre by the end of the year.  While I am of course interested to see whether the defensive line improves from last week’s performance, I am also interested to see how James Morris performs.  Morris seemed lost at times last week and was having problems shedding blocks to put himself into position to make tackles, but he is still a young player with plenty of time to improve and to put his incredible athletic ability on display.  Assuming that Pittsburgh tries to establish a running game behind Graham, the play of the linebackers will be crucial to slowing down that element of the Panther offense and forcing Pittsburgh to rely on a shaky pass attack.

Offensive Line.  For the playing experience that the members of the offensive line have, it was disappointing last week to see them struggle to win the line of scrimmage battle against Iowa State and, in some instances, struggle to reach Iowa State’s linebackers.  The tendency of Iowa offensive lines under Kirk Ferentz is that they tend to come out of the gates slowly but continue to improve as a unit as the season progress, hopefully we see parts of that progress on Saturday.  Speaking of offense, Marcus Coker remains an enigma.  While most fans, including myself, were giddy at the prospect of his return this season, he has thus far struggled to get into the rhythm of a game with any consistency.  It was obvious in the Tennessee Tech game and last week that Coker is still shaking off the rust from camp when he was not hit.  Unfortunately, Coker has fumbled four times in his last four games as a Hawkeye, a statistic that likely makes the Iowa coaching staff quite nervous.  Regardless of how Coker does on Saturday, I am curious to see how Jason White and Damon Bullock perform, as one or both of them will need to be able to shoulder at least 5-10 carries a game in order to spell Coker over the course of a long Big Ten season.

Pass Attack.  It will be interesting to watch how James Vandenberg plays in a home game that does not involve miserable, wet conditions and, whether his offensive coordinator gives him the opportunity to throw the ball down field.  Establishing Vandenberg’s confidence seems critical to me at this point in the season in order to lighten the defensive fronts that the Iowa running backs see week in and week out. What I would like to see is the Iowa offense coming out throwing short, seven to eight yard pass plays on first and second down in order to get into manageable third down situations rather than running Coker into eight man defensive fronts to set up third and long situations.

With so many questions about this team still remaining unanswered, I am excited to see what unfolds on Saturday.  I am curious to see if we see any changes on defense in terms of personnel or schemes.  I am curious to see if this offense has the octane necessary to put points on the scoreboard in droves, which a young Iowa defense desperately needs this year.  I also want to see our kickoff coverage unit make tackles and not give up field position to the Panthers.  Hopefully there are more good answers than lingering questions after Saturday’s game.  I tend to think that the former will be true.

Prediction:   Iowa 24   Pittsburgh 20

Pick to Click:   James Vandenberg

Thoughts on Iowa State Game

Well, I told you so. An uninspired Iowa team rolled into Ames and got steamrolled by a better coached, better Iowa State team in arguably the most exciting game in the Cy-Hawk series.  Here are my thoughts.

Defensive Front.  The all points bulletin is still out for Lebron Daniel and Broderick Binns.  Even though I said before the game that Daniel would be challenged against Kelechi Osemele, it was even worse than I thought.  The inability of the Iowa defensive line to put pressure on Steele Jantz or to close on him for making a sack or a tackle for loss is going to be a movie that Iowa fans will likely watch more than one time this season.  I do not know if the answer is have a linebacker spy the quarterback or continue to be more aggressive with blitzes, but something needs to change because this Iowa defensive line looks like the Iowa defensive line of 2005 when Mitch King, Matt Kroul, Bryan Mattison, and Kenny Iwebema were all first year starters.  Name me the last time when an Iowa defense surrendered 100 yards to a running back in consecutive contests.  I do not have the energy to look, but I would guess that it has been a long time.

Playcalling.  I have never been a Ken O’Keefe hater.  As fans we have no idea what play was called and whether the quarterback misread the defense to audible out of the play or make an adjustment.  With that said, I think O’Keefe had a pretty decent game plan yesterday that faltered when Iowa continued to run the ball against an eight man front rather than allowing James Vandenberg to throw short routes in an effort to loosen up the Cyclone defense for Marcus Coker.  The reverse call in overtime was quite possibly the dumbest calls I have seen in some time, but it ended up not mattering.  Oh, and another thing, despite gaining over 100 yards, Coker still looked very tentative hitting the hole.  Although he will continue to improve as the season progresses, I also think that Iowa fans need to temper their expectations of what type of back Coker is, which is to say that he is not blessed with breakaway speed and is not an imposing physical back.  He is a serviceable, solid running back who will likely have a respectable career at Iowa, but will probably not become the savior that Iowa fans expected after his performance in the Insight Bowl.  In the coming weeks I hope that O’Keefe puts more trust in Vandenberg to throw on first and second downs in an effort to make defenses defend the pass, which in theory would lighten the load for the Iowa offensive line and Coker.  At some point, the Iowa coaching staff also needs to allow Jason White, DeAndre Johnson or Damon Bullock to have some carries because Coker will not last through the Big Ten season carrying the ball 30 plus times a game. 

Great Expectations.  In one of my entries prior to the start of the season, I caught serious grief from several of you who thought my 7-5 prediction was too low and negative.  I made that prediction based on the fact that we have a young quarterback, an inexperienced defensive line, and questions at several positions—due in large part to the exodus of sixteen Hawkeyes into the NFL over the past two years.  So many unrealistic, what have you done for me lately Hawkeye fans have just come to expect that Iowa will finish anywhere from 9-3 to 11-1 each year.  The Iowa coaches have done a great job of recruiting diamond in the rough players who they take and turn into solid players, but Iowa will not ever be able to lose players to the NFL and simply reload at positions.  The Iowa staff certainly has the penchant to work their magic during a five year career of most players to turn most of them into either draft picks or guys that have a chance at making an NFL roster as an undrafted free agent.  With that in mind, however, fans need to remember that there will be years that are better than others.  Be sure to keep that in mind for the rest of the games this season.  Enjoy the fact that you are watching an Iowa game and just go in with an expectation that this team is not going to challenge for a Big Ten championship and you will feel a lot better both after the wins and losses this year.

Remember how I said that Iowa’s kickoff coverage was suspect last week?  After another solid performance on Saturday, Iowa’s kickoff coverage team now ranks 103 out of 120 FBS teams in yards allowed on kickoff.  Do not be surprised to Shaun Prater, Micah Hyde, and other starters migrate to the kickoff coverage unit in the coming weeks.  Finally, you have to tip your cap to Paul Rhoads and the rest of the ketchup and mustard players from that other school.  They flat out beat Iowa by playing with more emotion and making plays when it mattered.  Unfortunately, I think we are going to see more days like this past Saturday this season, which is why you should relax going into a game, enjoy the atmosphere of your tailgate or other Saturday pre-game rituals and hope for a well-played game but do not be upset if the Hawkeyes continue to struggle like they did against Iowa State.  

Iowa State Predictions

The uncertainty that is the week leading up to the Iowa State has settled in leaving many Iowa fans still wondering what they will see on Saturday.  After the glorified scrimmage that was the game last week, it is almost as if the Hawkeyes will be playing their first game of the season.  Here are my thoughts.

Line Battles.  Evidently Iowa State’s offensive line was less than impressive last week against UNI.  Granted, two of its starting offensive linemen, including All-American candidate Kelechi Osemele, were either injured or not playing due to suspension, so it is difficult to assess that unit’s performance.  One of the key matchups on Saturday will be whether Lebron Daniel is able to generate any type of pass rush against Osemele, who has approximately an 80 lbs. weight advantage over the Hawkeye.  Iowa’s defensive line will not only need to generate a pass rush with the four down linemen, but they also need to finish a sack or tackle for loss when the opportunity presents itself.  It will be interesting to see how much of a push the Iowa offensive line is able to get against the Iowa State defensive line and, perhaps more importantly, whether Marcus Coker runs more aggressively than he did last week.

Special Teams.  As I mentioned in my comments following the Tennessee Tech game, Iowa’s kickoff coverage unit picked up where it left off last year—looking dismal and lost at times.  A long kickoff return by Iowa State is the type of play that can ignite an already hostile fanbase in a rivalry game and put the road team behind the proverbial eight ball.  It will also be interesting to see how Eric Guthrie and Mike Meyer respond in a hostile road environment.

Drops and Missed Blocks.  Beyond the obvious errors that one may observe during a game (e.g. a dropped ball or missed tackle), there are many more subtle errors that keep coaches up at night and lead to big plays going the other way.  With that in mind, there are many key positions at which Iowa is very inexperienced, including fullback and free safety.  While I think Iowa fans can certainly trust Micah Hyde’s instincts and athleticism, he still has a lot to learn as evidenced by him getting sucked in on a play-action and getting beat deep.  Perhaps I should take this opportunity to amend my earlier statement that Iowa would miss Brett Morse the most the season by adding Brett Greenwood to that list.

Vandenberg.  Iowa State will most certainly try to eliminate Marvin McNutt as a target by placing talented senior Leonard Johnson across him from the line of scrimmage.  While we have certainly seen that James Vandenberg can play in a hostile environment, how well he respond with a surrounding cast that is arguably not as talented as the persons that were in the skill positions for Iowa in 2009.  The obvious answer is that Keenan Davis will need to make himself an open target for Vandenberg, but the third and fourth options, Kevonte Martin-Manley, Brad Herman, CJ Fiedorowicz, and others need to improve on their performances from last week that led to several dropped passes.

Assuming that Iowa starts with the ball, it will be critical for the Hawkeyes to move the ball down the field and score.  As is the case for any favored road team, a close game allows the underdog to continue to think that they are in the game and keeps the fan base engaged.  If we see Iowa come out with a stretch play to the left and then to the right, I think we are all in for a long day.  Although it is against my religion to pick Iowa State, I have a bad feeling that several factors set this game up perfectly for an Iowa State win:  the game is in Ames, Iowa is inexperience at several key positions, and the usual weird things that happen during Iowa-Iowa State games.  With that said, I have convinced myself that Iowa State will likely win this game, but I sure as hell am not about to put that in writing.

Prediction:  Iowa 21 Iowa State 20

Pick to Click:  James Morris 

Thoughts on Tennessee Tech Game

Well that game was quite the glorified scrimmage.  Yes, Tennessee Tech played a spread offense that may be helpful in preparation for Iowa State, but other than that pseudo benefit, Iowa would have been better off playing a scrimmage between the ones on both sides of the ball.  Here are my thoughts.

Running Back.  Seriously, for the love of all that is holy, AIRBHG, please go away.  For those of you who are uninitiated to the satirical, comedic Hawkeye website of Black Heart Gold Pants, which I recommend for good analysis and good laughs, AIRBHG stands for Angry Iowa Running Back Hating God, a the devil incarnate who seeks to destroy the Iowa ground game one running back at a time.  Unfortunately, Mika’il McCall was the victim this year after impressively running for sixty one yards on nine carries.  After Marcus Coker’s less than impressive performance, Iowa fans have to be scratching their heads wondering what the depth at the running back position will look like for the remainder of the season.  While Coker will perform much better than he did last Saturday, the stable of running backs consists of walk-on junior Jason White, untried redshirt freshman Deandre Johnson and true freshman Damon Bullock, who was slated to move to wide receiver.  The Iowa coaching staff has always been able to come up with an answer after prior AIRBHG attacks, including in 2004 when AIRBHG struck down Albert Young, Marcus Schnoor, Champ Davis, Jermelle Lewis, and Marques Simmons, but one has to wonder if Iowa will have to completely change its offensive strategy, like it did in 2004.

Defense.  Certain units of the Iowa defense looked very good on Saturday, including the linebackers and defensive backs.  Micah Hyde looked good at times, but it was clear on Tennessee Tech’s long pass play in the second quarter that he was out of position.  Jordan Bernstine’s performance certainly gave the Iowa coaches a reason to elevate him to starting strong safety this week against Iowa State.  The defensive line was salty, but their inability to complete a sack after getting into the backfield was certainly disconcerting.  Again, it was difficult to walk away with much from this game, so I think it is clear that Iowa fans will have a better idea about the defensive line after this Saturday’s game.

Kickoff Coverage.  After a less than stellar season of kickoff coverage last year, things did not improve against Tennessee Tech allowing an average of 22 yards per return.  Additionally, Mike Meyers was unable to put the ball deep enough in the end zone for a touchback, which may have been due in part to a wet, heavy ball, but the young kickoff coverage team could use all the help they can get. 

Similar to my entry prior to the Tennessee Tech game stating that there was not much to be said heading into the season, I do not think we know very much about this team after one game.  Iowa fans should be cautious about placing on bets on the intrastate rivalry matchup this Saturday against Iowa State.  As you all know, better Iowa teams than this one have gone into Jack Trice Stadium and lost to bad Iowa State teams.  The old adage about turnovers and penalties certainly will apply on Saturday and it will more likely be a one score game than the blowouts that Iowa fans have experienced the past two years. 

Tennessee Tech Predictions

After nearly eight months after playing in the Insight Bowl, the Iowa Hawkeyes will take the field to begin its 122^nd season as a collegiate football program. While there is not much to be said about a game that fans have been waiting for the entire offseason, I will try to give my thoughts about things that I am curious to see on Saturday.  Here are my thoughts.

Who?  A program or printed roster will be everyone’s friend on Saturday.  With the news earlier this week that Kirk Ferentz plans to play a number of freshmen and the impending season-long defensive line rotation, many Iowa fans will be scrambling to determine who is in the game.  While Ferentz has been coy about which freshmen will play, if I had to venture a guess, I would posture that Mik’ail McCall, Jordan Canzeri, Ray Hamilton, Torrey Campbell, and Darian Cooper will all see playing time on Saturday.  Perhaps others will see team through special teams, but the number thrown out has been anywhere from four to eight.

Defensive Line Rotation.  The million dollar question for this season is the quality and dependability of the defensive line.  It does not take ownership of an internet domain devoted to Hawkeye sports or a column featured an Iowa newspaper to figure out that this unit’s ability will dictate how well the defense does this season.  While I made my thoughts clear that I am skeptical about this unit, I am curious to see how they perform against an offense that is predicated on quick tempo—a fortuitous offense to face in anticipation of next Saturday’s matchup against that other team in Iowa.  Call me crazy, but I think Broderick Binns has a better season this year.  Scott Dochterman of the Cedar Rapids Gazette had an interesting piece about Binns and how his DUI arrest from last summer really seemed to affect mentality, which arguably derailed him for the remainder of the season.  While I think everyone knows what the line has with Mike Daniels and Binns, we are all curious to see how Lebron Daniel, Thomas Nardo, Joe Forgy, Mike Hardy, Dominic Alvis and Steve Bigach play.  Kudos to those of you who even recognize those last five names.  Bonus points to those of you who can match a name with a jersey number.

Offensive Line Dominance.  A healthy dose of stretch plays will be on display Saturday, as Ken O’Keefe will likely try to wear down the Tennessee Tech defense before getting its defensive backfield to bite on play action.  While Marcus Coker and Mik’ail McCall will have plenty of big holes to run through, keep your eye on Jason White.  The walk-on junior from Davenport is still listed as the number two running back on this week’s depth chart.  Pat Harty of the Iowa Press Citizen wrote a great column about White and his dreams about being an Iowa Hawkeye.  After reading that column, I really hope that he is able to earn a scholarship and have some meaningful, productive carries this season.  Two years ago I said that Iowa would miss Rob Bruggeman the most.  Last year I said that the defense would miss A.J. Edds the most.  This year I think the team will sorely miss three year starter Brett Morse at fullback.  Morse quietly paved the way for Shonn Greene, Adam Robinson, and company for the past three season.  Matt Meyers was listed as the first team fullback in this week’s depth chart.  As long as the young man keeps James Vandenberg upright and does not miss any linebackers hunting the Iowa running backs, he will have done his job and anything beyond that is gravy.

Every fan of every football team has the same laundry list of curiosities heading into a season opener, and I am sure you have your own.  Rather than list those, I think it is more appropriate to wait and see how things shake out on Saturday.  Enjoy the start of the season, there are twelve weeks of Hawkeye football ahead of us and for that we can all be thankful. 

Prediction:  Iowa 38  Tennessee Tech 10

Pick to Click:  Mike Daniels

Random Thoughts

With two weeks left until the opener, I figured it was about time to spend some time behind the computer and hammer out a few words and thoughts on the upcoming season, the various happenings around the Big Ten and college football in general.

Uncertainty.  With Iowa breaking camp today, my optimism does not match the optimism that many fans have prior to the beginning of the season.  It does not take an Iowa football fanatic to state the obvious that there are many holes on this team.  The biggest question, of course, is how well the new defensive line will be able to play.  Call me skeptical, but this unit is going to frustrate fans all season long.  Mike Daniels and Broderick Binns anchor the group as the only two returning starters, but neither one of them gives me the confidence to think that the defensive line can stop the run or create pressure the way Iowa fans have become accustomed to under a Norm Parker coached defense.  But Daniels was an animal last year you say.  Yes, he was impressive at times last season albeit against some of the weaker teams.  In eight Big Ten conference games last season, Daniels totaled 22 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss and one sack.  Not exactly jaw dropping numbers from someone who fans are expecting to fill in for Karl Klug, who by the way is getting looks at earning a starting position at defensive tackle for the Tennessee Titans.  We all know how disappointing of a season that Binns had last year, due in large part to the emergence of Daniels, but nevertheless, it was a big drop off from his sophomore campaign.  Dominic Alvis, the other defensive tackle listed in the initial two deeps to start fall camp is listed at 6’4 250 lbs.—not exactly a bruising body on the interior.  Carl Davis, the redshirt freshman that many fans were rightfully excited about given his 6’1 310 lbs. frame has supposedly not turned heads in practice and evidently lacks the mean streak that is required of that position.  On the end opposite Binns, Lebron Daniel is a complete unknown as a fifth year senior who has not seen sparse playing time in his first four years on campus. Perhaps true freshman Darian Cooper provides some spark to this unit, but that is a complete unknown. We all knew that the defensive line was going to be a question mark this season and that seven to eight would be shuffled in and out of the lineup, but I think given the inexperience and small size of this unit, Iowa fans are going to become very frustrated at the group’s ability to stop the run and create pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Record.  When it comes to fans and media members making predictions on this year’s team, I find it entertaining that when asked to give the win total on the season, the typical response is something to the effect of, “Well I could see them winning 9 games this season, but I could also see them winning 7 games.”  Way to go out on a limb on a deviation of two, folks.  Look, the schedule this year is very, very favorable for a young team that will likely have some growing pains, but it is just difficult for me to get my mind around this team winning 9 games.  Where things stand now, I see a 7-5 season with losses coming against Pittsburgh, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Nebraska.  There are two weeks until the opener, so maybe some additional reports out of camp will change my mind, but the aforementioned issues with the defensive line and an unknown at the second string running back position bother me to the extent that I think that Iowa fans will be seeing déjà vu in the fourth quarter of several games this season, which is to say that the Hawkeyes will keep it close, but will not be able to close out games.

The Circus. As you can tell by this point, the tone of this entry is not exactly uplifting.  Maybe it was sparked in part due to the unveiling of the new Cy-Hawk trophy yesterday at the Iowa State Fair.  I am sure you all have now seen the trophy that belongs on a mantle in someone’s house who has zero taste when it comes to decorating.  Look at some of the best rivalry games in college football:  Michigan/Ohio State, Army/Navy, and Texas/Oklahoma, none of which have a lame trophy that goes to the winner.  Yes, the old Cy-Hawk was a joke of a trophy but it at least had an association with the game of football.  Of course, this does not come as a surprise to me given the fact that this was likely approved by the same marketing department that brought you “Let’s Get Mad Again,” “The Heroes Game,” and a gimmick for every Iowa home game.  Gary Barta has now shown that he has no chutzpah to maintain the University of Iowa brand as a longstanding brand that was around long before he was born and will be around long after he is gone.  The University of Iowa and Hawkeyes brand has been severely cheapened by all of the hokey marketing efforts that his athletic department has either approved or acquiesced to over the past few years.  Does every Iowa home game have to be associated with some type of color scheme?  Is it too much to maybe just designate one home game each year as a “Be Bold, Wear Gold,” “Blackout,” or alternating stripes game?  With his willingness to desecrate Carver Hawkeye Arena with Mediacom logos on the floor, do you have any doubt that if a sponsor was willing to put up the money that he would do the same at Kinnick?  Curse the day if that were to ever happen.  The stadium atmosphere at Kinnick is starting to resemble an NBA game with constant music and cheers generated by a sound system rather than a college football game. Hell, you cannot hear the band playing On Iowa when the swarm comes out on the field thanks to the lame video of a truck rolling over a graphic of the opponent’s mascot or logo.  Say what you want about Notre Dame, but it was refreshing to see no advertisements around the stadium and no sound system-induced music every five minutes.  The purpose of gathering at that beautiful stadium nestled in between Melrose Avenue and Hawkins Drive is to watch a football game, not be amused by the Panchero’s burrito lift or whatever other outrageous gimmick that Barta’s marketing department comes up with next.  Couple those developments over the past few years with the changes to tailgating, and I am not sure if we will recognize the gameday atmosphere in Iowa City in ten years

These are my random thoughts about Iowa football at the moment.  My predictions are subject to change, but for now I remain very bearish about this football season.  Despite my current prediction, I am ready for the season to begin so that the talk around the water cooler returns to talk about the game on the field and not the recent scandals and off the field miseries that the game of college football has endured for the past four months.

Missouri Predictions

Although it has only been a few weeks since my last entry, it seems like ages ago before Iowa fans expected the Hawkeyes to walk out of TCF Bank Stadium with a victory and a likely berth in the Outback Bowl. Instead, Iowa laid an absolute egg and has a date with a 10-2 Missouri Tigers squad in the Insight Bowl. Here are some of my thoughts on the recent developments relating to Iowa football and my predictions on the game.

Minnesota Game. There are few, if any, positive thoughts to take away from Iowa’s 27-24 loss to Minnesota. A team that had aspirations of playing in another BCS game has no business losing to a 2-9 Minnesota team last in the Big Ten in rush defense and rush offense with an interim head coach at the helm. Yet, the Hawkeyes came out and played uninspired football that was icing on the cake of the most disappointing Iowa football season since 1997. Adrian Clayborn’s comments after the game, while honest and true, drove the knife through the hearts of Iowa fans saying that he felt as though the team had lost its will to win—very discouraging comments coming from a leader of a team with so much promise at the beginning of the season. The worst loss of the Kirk Ferentz era in terms of unexpectedness since the Western Michigan senior day debacle in 2007 was the perfect conclusion of went wrong this season.

DJK. As added egg in the face of the Iowa football program and Iowa fans, Iowa’s all-time leading receiver was charged with several serious misdemeanors involving the possession of drugs. Derrell Johnson-Koulianos’ engaging personality and flair for the dramatic on the football field endeared him to Iowa fans during his four years in Iowa City, all of which came to a sudden halt upon hearing the news of the charges. At the beginning of the season it seemed as though Johnson-Koulianos had matured and was focused on playing up to his potential. Despite his likely NFL draft status as a third round or fourth round pick, Johnson-Koulianos has now not only tarnished his reputation in the hearts and minds of Iowa football fans but has also likely lost several hundred thousand dollars and will have to rely on being signed as an undrafted free agent. Given the types of narcotics that were found at his house, it is clear that Johnson-Koulianos has problems beyond just the obvious of using marijuana and cocaine. For his sake, I hope that he is able to receive the treatment and counseling necessary to help him. While I think many Iowa fans will be able to forgive his transgressions, they will have a difficult time looking at the cover of last year’s Sports Illustrated and his name in the record books without shaking their head of what could have been and without having a bitter taste in their mouth that his name at Iowa will forever be associated with his actions off the field and not his play on the field.

Rumor Mill. The rumor mill was running rampant leading up to the news on Tuesday, December 7 that Johnson-Koulianos had been arrested. While many of those rumors turned out to be true as they related to Johnson-Koulianos, the subsequent rumors that were given life in the Iowa message board community ranged from rumors that 25 players were getting kicked off the team to Kirk Ferentz retiring from coaching. Prior to a press conference at which Gary Barta and Kirk Ferentz were to speak, Iowa fans, having suffered a disappointing 7-5 season, the arrest of its all-time leading scorer, began to fear the worst of the rumors and listened with eagerness on their radios throughout the state when Barta and Ferentz merely stated that Iowa has a drug-testing program and wanted to make some changes to the already diligent testing program in an effort to prevent cheating. It was nothing more and nothing less, but Iowa fans, and certain Iowa media members, expected the apocalypse to descend upon the Hayden Fry Football Complex all because of rumors on message boards that were perpetuated further through social media sites like Facebook and Twitter. After being an avid Iowa message board reader for the past ten years or so, I am proud to say that I have now been message board free for the past three weeks. Not only was I sick of the rumors flying around, but I was sick of reading comments of people who did not attend the University of Iowa, have only been Iowa fans since 2002, and who could not form intelligible sentences and thoughts. Instead, I have decided to only read stories written by journalists who have to answer to editors, a reading public, and the threat of liability for libel or slander. I implore all of you to do the same. Andrew Logue, Marc Morehouse, Mike Hlas, Jon Miller, Rob Howe, Tom Kakert, and the many other Iowa beat writers are all excellent journalists who write well and do not post stories on their blogs or in the newspaper without credible sources and without first researching the story. If you must have the latest news on Hawkeye athletics, follow any of those gentlemen on Twitter. Not only do you cut through the garbage of the message boards, but you also are able to read stories that have credibility.

Insight Bowl. When it became apparent that Iowa was likely headed to the Insight Bowl, Iowa fans collectively began to hold a glimmer of excitement with the possibility of facing future rival Nebraska. Instead, the Big 12 Conference stepped in and prevented an early start to what will be a great rivalry and the associated publicity for the two Big Ten schools. Iowa faces a very talented Missouri team that finished 10-2 on the season with an outstanding, gun-slinger quarterback, Blaine Gabbert. There is an unscientific line of thinking that the team that wants to be at the bowl game less has a greater likelihood of losing. Iowa had its sights set on great things this season as an encore to last year’s Orange Bowl win. Missouri on the other hand was passed over for the Insight Bowl last year in favor of a 6-6 Iowa State team that beat a porous Minnesota team. Reading all of the stories coming out of Tempe this week it sounds as though Missouri is loose and relaxed while the Hawkeyes have been focused and a little tense.

This matchup has scared me ever since it was announced due to the Tiger passing attack. While Gabbert will not be confused with Dan Persa or Kirk Cousins anytime soon, he has an excellent arm and gets rid of the ball in a hurry. Missouri’s offense is most similar to Northwestern, which is an unsettling thought to Iowa fans. My concern in this game is that Missouri will exploit the Iowa defensive scheme the same way that Northwestern has done for the past five years—slant routs over the middle and quick passes to the outside, both forcing Iowa’s linebackers to make plays in space. Although the return of Jeff Tarpinian will help considerably, Iowa’s defensive line will not have any time to pressure Gabbert given how quickly he gets rid of the ball. On defense, Missouri boasts a very stout defense ranking tenth in the nation in pass defense efficiency and sixth in the nation in scoring defense. Without Adam Robinson, Iowa will have to rely on senior Ricky Stanzi’s arm and decisionmaking to pick apart the Missouri secondary, something that may be easier said than done, as I expect Missouri to sit back and force Iowa to utilize true freshman Marcus Coker. Given the way this season has gone, I have no strong feeling one way or the other as to how this game will go. It is not too cliché to say that the 2011 season starts tomorrow.

The momentum heading into the offseason can be helped considerably with a win. Likewise, things on the recruiting scene look almost as good as the vaunted class of 2005, especially with the signing of running back Rodney Coe.  A win tomorrow would do wonders not only for the players but also the psyche of the fanbase.

Regardless of the outcome, I would like to see Stanzi, Clayborn, Christian Ballard, Karl Klug, Brett Greenwood, Julian Vandervelde, Paki O'Meara, Jeff Tarpinian, Paul Chaney, Jr., Brett Morse, Allen Reisner, Colin Sandeman, Daniel Murray and Ryan Donahue to have great games for all of the hard work and time that they have dedicated to the Iowa football program the last four and five years. More than anything else, win or lose, I want to see this team play the hard-nosed, discipline football that has defined the Iowa program under Kirk Ferentz. Pressuring Gabbert and establishing a ground game will keep the Hawks in this game late into the fourth quarter. For the seniors’ sake, I hope it is enough.

Prediction: Iowa 24 Missouri 21

Pick to Click: Adrian Clayborn

Thoughts on Ohio State Game

It was a fitting end to the home season. Before the game I thought that if Iowa were to lose the game it would be because of one part of the game that has plagued Iowa all year long: a special team’s blunder, the defense not being able to make a stop in the fourth quarter, or the offense not sustaining a drive late in the game. Instead, this game contained elements of all three. Freshman kicker Michael Meyer missed from 40 yards in the second quarter, the defense gave up a 12 play, 76 yard drive in the fourth quarter that put the Buckeyes ahead, and the offense was unable to sustain a drive prior to that Ohio State scoring drive and was once again unable to operate a two minute offense late in the game. While there were several other plays that Iowa was unable to execute, those three instances encapsulate what has gone wrong this season.

For the twenty six seniors that played their final game at Kinnick, it was another heartbreaking loss that simply furthered the point that the margin of victory at Iowa has been and always will be slim. In 2008, Iowa went 9-4 with the four losses coming by a total of twelve points. The margin of victory in the four losses this season has been by a total of fifteen points. College football is a fickle sport where the bounce of a ball here or there can completely change the dynamics of a game. Add the fact that 18-22 year olds are the ones involved and there is a recipe for uncertainty one week to the next. For whatever reason the ball has not bounced Iowa’s way this season. Some say that teams create their own luck, but for whatever reason Iowa has not been able to make the big plays when it has mattered this year to re-create the luck and magic of 2009.

As much as all of these losses have stung for the fans this year, they have hurt the players even more. After all of the 5 a.m. weightlifting sessions and the sprint workouts during the dead heat of July, the pain of the losses must make those workouts seem like exercises in futility—no pun intended. Thus, it was nice to see the Iowa fans give those seniors the applause and support they deserved as they ran on to the field for their final time as Iowa Hawkeyes.

At this point in the season Iowa is playing for pride. Iowa travels to rival Minnesota on Saturday where they will play at TCF Bank for the first time against a Gopher squad that has only won two games this year and sports a rush defense that is dead last in the Big Ten. While Iowa fans have circled this game as an automatic win for several months, it is hard to tell the mentality of this team given what has happened. I am looking forward to see how this team responds knowing that a quality bowl appearance is still possible, but I would not be surprised to see the offense sputter the way it has the past few weeks.

Ohio State Predictions

After a week of trying to shake the disappointment of the Northwestern loss, the entire Hawkeye nation has to face the reality of playing a very talented and daunting Ohio State Buckeye team that is going for an unprecedented sixth straight Big Ten championship. A day that has been circled on the calendars of Iowa fans since the end of the Orange Bowl lost some of its luster after Iowa’s loss last week, but with a group of seniors that have given so much to this football program playing their final game in Kinnick, I have a feeling that the Hawkeye faithful will respond in kind with a raucous environment. Here are my thoughts.


The Manzi. Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi will go down as one of the best quarterbacks in Iowa football history with a 25-7 record as a starter, 53 touchdown passes, and 6,855 yards career passing. Stanzi also gave Hawkeyes fans several memorable moments over his three years as a starter with the 4th quarter drive against Penn State in 2008, Stanzi to McNutt against Michigan State in 2009, the wild comeback against Indiana in 2009, and a win in the Orange Bowl. One of the biggest question marks heading into the season was whether Stanzi would be able to improve on the 15 interceptions he threw last season. Without question, Stanzi has made remarkable progress in this department this season. Stanzi has thrown 22 touchdowns to only four interceptions this year, two of which were arguably not his fault. More than his ability to throw a good deep ball and his ability to commandeer his offense, the Hawkeyes are going to miss Stanzi’s leadership and calm demeanor in the huddle and under center, both qualities that are impossible to teach.

Mr. Clayborn. While Adrian Clayborn has not had the type of season statistically that either he hoped for or that Iowa fans expected, he has still wreaked havoc in opponents’ backfields all season and has forced opposing offensive coordinators to structure their game plans around him. Clayborn’s career at defensive end has been one of the best at Iowa since Matt Roth. Regardless of his statistical production this season, I would argue that his decision to come back was good for him to spend another year learning the techniques and skill that he will need at the next level in the NFL. Despite what know-it-all, or at least they think so, draft experts Mel Kiper, Jr. and Todd McShay think, Clayborn will make the NFL team that drafts him very happy due to his ferocious hand fighting abilities and his quickness on the edge. Something tells me that Clayborn will give the Kinnick crowd a few reasons to cheer on Saturday.

The Ohio State. The gaudy statistics on both offense and defense that Ohio State has put up this year is scary for any Iowa fan to see, especially after the offensive and defensive woes that Iowa has had the past two weeks. Ohio State leads the Big Ten in both scoring offense and scoring defense, which is good enough for sixth and fifth nationally, respectively. To add injury to insult, Ohio State is fifth in the nation in rushing defense surrendering only 86 yards a game and sixth in the nation in pass defense allowing only 151 yards a game. Suffice it to say, the Iowa offense will have to be at its absolute best on Saturday. Although several factors have played a role in the Iowa offense sputtering the past two weeks, it has seemed as though there has been no rhythm to the offense or play calling in general. I would expect no drastic changes to the Iowa play calling on Saturday, but, as is always the case, execution and minimizing mental mistakes will be critical against this stout Buckeyes defense.

Defensive Determination. After Northwestern’s late scoring touchdown drive last week, Iowa fans have questioned whether this defense has lost its ability to stop opponents when needed after giving up late scoring drives in Iowa’s losses to Arizona, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and what should have been a touchdown against Indiana. While many have questioned the conditioning of this unit in recent weeks, it is obvious that due to the offense’s inability to sustain drives, the defense has been on the field longer than normal leading to tired players at the end of the game. The offense will have to move the ball on Saturday against Ohio State or we will see the same story of a tired Iowa defense in the fourth quarter.

With Dan Gable serving as the honorary captain, a planned Air Force flyover, and the emotions of Senior Day, it is hard to imagine Iowa coming out flat on Saturday. The proof is in the pudding, however, that this Ohio State team is very talented and will capitalize on any Hawkeye mistakes. Despite having many of the intangibles mentioned above in their favor on Saturday, the Hawkeyes will have to play a near flawless game to win. While it is certainly not an impossibility, the way this season has gone, it seems appropriate that Iowa players and fans’ hearts will be broken once again.

Prediction: Iowa 21 Ohio State 23

Pick to Click: The Seniors

Thoughts on Northwestern Game

The Iowa football team received a big dose of reality on Saturday. Moreover, Iowa fans received a dose of what they have known deep down in their hearts for a long time. Iowa football and basketball have been and always will be just below the threshold of being considered elite. Teams that have a fifth year senior starting quarterback, top wide receivers, and an all-American defensive end do not play close games back-to-back against opponents like Indiana and Northwestern, especially when Wisconsin beats that same Indiana team by 63 points. I considered characterizing Northwestern as an inferior opponent, but that would be disservice to Pat Fitzgerald and his coaching staff who have outcoached the Iowa coaching staff and for Fitzgerald’s players who have made Iowa look like a high school team the past three years. For a team composed of this talent and this leadership, it is inexcusable to come out with the number of mental mistakes that this team committed yesterday. Holding penalties, false starts, and poor decisions all contributed to a loss to a Northwestern team that has now won five out of the last six against Iowa.

Northwestern quarterback Dan Persa did what Mike Kafka, Bret Basanez, and the other short, fleet-footed Wildcat quarterbacks before him have done against Iowa—make patient throws to the outside and outrun a slow linebacker corps. Before the game Persa made a comment that he believes one of the reasons for Northwestern’s success against Iowa is that they know exactly what the Iowa defense is going to do on each play. While I do not necessarily disagree with Iowa’s defensive philosophy, it has been the same play every year against Northwestern: six-seven yard passes to the outside and, when the coverage breaks down, an opportunity for the quarterback to scramble down the field for big gains. It would be very difficult to convince me that Iowa’s cornerbacks are not athletic enough to play closer to the line of scrimmage like every other team in the country does. Likewise, while I do not have the answers to explain what needs to be done on defense on Northwestern, I do know that Iowa cannot continue to run its simple, base defense against teams like Northwestern. The best example I can think of is using a school analogy. Certain professors like answers written in a particular manner. Going into a test, students that receive the best grades are able to adapt to that style and tailor their answers accordingly. Writing an answer in the same style or, in this case, playing the same type of defense, simply for the sake of not wanting to change is just plain ignorant and leads to unexpected grades and losses.

A wise friend once told me that the Hawks will always break your heart.  Without a doubt, they always do break it and, no matter how much I care, they always will.  Nevertheless, despite knowing that the Hawkeyes and sports in general can never give back what I put in and knowing that the Hawkeyes will break my heart several times for the rest of my life, I am going to cheer my heart out for the Hawkeyes on Saturday.  I hope that everyone that is at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday gives Ricky Stanzi, Adrian Clayborn, Christian Ballard, Karl Klug, Julian Vandervelde, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Jeff Tarpinian, and Ryan Donahue the support and appreciation they deserve for all of the memories they created during their time at Iowa and to show them that win or lose, Iowa fans will continue to support their Hawkeyes.  With the Hawkeyes in the underdog role, a role they cherish, Ohio State will have to be at its best because with a turnover here and a great play there, the Hawkeyes will be in this game with a chance to upset the Buckeyes late in the game.

Northwestern Predictions

Every team has that one opponent that gives them trouble and for the Iowa Hawkeyes it is clear that the Northwestern Wildcats is that opponent. With four wins over Iowa in the last five games, the Wildcats will once again be out to ruin Iowa’s hopes for a BCS berth and a Big Ten championship. Here are my thoughts.

Offensive Playbook. With the planned return of Adam Robinson, it will be curious to see what type of offensive game plan Ken O’Keefe will roll out on Saturday. The current forecast for Saturday in Evanston is a fifty percent chance of rain, which always favors teams that run the ball well. As evident by last week’s inability to score touchdowns in the red zone, Robinson is an integral part of this offense due to his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and get those extra two-three yards on rushing attempts. The weather notwithstanding, Ricky Stanzi and the Iowa passing game should be able to move the ball at will through the air against a Northwestern defense that ranks 100th in the nation in pass defense allowing an average of 247 yards per game. If the weather is a factor, I would guess that the Iowa passing attack will revolve around throwing short routes and, hopefully, getting the ball to tight end Allen Reisner, which they failed to do last week.

Protection Problems. While not quite a spread offense, Northwestern’s passing game relies heavily on quick developing pass plays and short routes. In light of that type of offense, it is stunning that the Wildcats rank last in the Big Ten in sacks allowed this year giving up 31 sacks, which is twelve more sacks than the 10th ranked team. For an Iowa defensive line that has been unfairly criticized for its lack of sacks, it will be an interesting to watch how much pressure the defensive line can apply to Dan Persa in the pocket and how many sacks, if any, they produce on Saturday. Despite the lack of protection, Persa is the most accurate passer in the entire nation completing just above 73% of his passes. Thus, it was good timing for Iowa to have played against a quality quarterback like Ben Chappell in preparation for the Wildcat passing game.

Coverage. Just when it appeared as though Iowa was improving with its kickoff coverage, it took two steps back against Indiana allowing 25 yards a return. For the season Iowa now ranks 83 in the country allowing just over 22 yards a game. Iowa’s special teams play in prior years played a quiet role in Iowa being so successful, but this year it is arguably one of the reasons why Iowa lost against Arizona and Wisconsin. As the weather turns cold and the ball gets harder, Michael Meyer will have a more difficult time kicking the ball deep, which forces the coverage unit to be at its best. While turnovers have been the demon in the past against Northwestern, it is very possible that Iowa’s special teams woes may rear their ugly head again on Saturday.

Linebacker Limbo. Two freshman will likely start at linebacker for Iowa on Saturday, as James Morris and Shane DiBona are listed alongside Jeremiha Hunter for the Hawkeyes. Morris is playing remarkably well at a position that is not exactly easy for anyone to just jump in and play mid-season, let alone for a true freshman. Jeff Tarpinian has slowly worked his way back into some playing time as the effects of a neck stinger suffered five weeks ago continue to linger. If Tarpinian is able to go, he would likely play in the place of DiBona, who is playing for the injured Tyler Nielsen. The play of Iowa’s linebackers will be crucial on Saturday against the Wildcats who live off of short pass plays and slants over the middle. The combination of that style of offense with a pinpoint accurate passer like Persa is a recipe for potential disaster; however, as I mentioned earlier this week, this defense could statistically turn out to be one of the best defenses in the Kirk Ferentz era and, if they play to their potential, have the ability to stop the Wildcat offense.

One of the most surprising statistics that I read earlier this week is that Iowa has not beat Indiana and Northwestern in the same season since 2002. As has been the case most of the time in the last four losses to Northwestern, this Iowa team is head and shoulders above the Wildcats, but in this matchup such disparity means nothing. With some of the unintended bulletin board material that likely found its way into the Iowa football complex this week and the way the Wildcats ruined Iowa’s undefeated season last year, it would seem impossible for Iowa to overlook Northwestern this year.

Prediction: Iowa 24 Northwestern 13

Pick to Click: James Morris

Thoughts on Indiana Game

It is virtually impossible for a college football team composed of 18-22 year olds to play to their potential every game over the course of twelve Saturdays. Nonetheless, successful teams are able to overcome games in which they do not play their best. Iowa’s 18-13 win over Indiana was such a game. Here are my thoughts.

Red Zone Woes. Is there any doubt that Adam Robinson is one of the most valuable players on this team? Granted, Marcus Coker had a fantastic premiere as the starting running back rushing for 129 yards on twenty two carries, but Iowa’s offense struggled the entire game in the red zone walking away with only twelve points. With Robinson in the lineup, the Iowa offense is much more dangerous in the red zone due to Robinson’s ability to gain the extra two to three yards as he is being tackled. If Iowa had scored on one of those drives, the game would have likely had a completely different outcome. Hopefully the Iowa coaching staff re-evaluates their red zone and goaline playbook this week.

Defensive Performance. During and shortly after the game, I was thinking about how disappointing the defense played against Indiana and how disappointing they have seemed to be at some points during the season, but after further reflection, the Iowa defense actually played a great game against the Hoosiers. Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell was limited to 222 yards through the air, well short of his 296 yard average. Likewise, the Iowa defense held the Hoosiers to only 91 yards on the ground, which was also below their average of 97 yards. Iowa fans have become spoiled with Iowa defenses of yesteryear that were able to come in and, as Norm Parker is fond of saying, “put out the fire.” As I thought about it more, I wondered if the statistics reflect the perception that this defense has not been able to put out the fire. My first thought was that the defense may not be as good on third down; however, when one looks at the actual numbers, Iowa is third in the Big Ten in third down conversion defense allowing opponents to convert at only a 33% clip. My next thought was that the number of sacks are low. However, the Iowa defense has 14 sacks on the year, which ranks in the middle of the Big Ten. Last year’s defense had 31 on the season, which was also in the middle of the Big Ten. Finally, Iowa’s pass defense is the best in the Big Ten allowing only 152 yards per game in conference play. So while the perception is that this defense has struggled at times this season, the numbers tell a completely different story. Thus, it seems as though Iowa fans’ expectations might be unrealistic especially given that last year’s unit featured two of the best linebackers in the Kirk Ferentz era and a shutdown corner that Iowa has not had in a long time.

Fearless Freshman. Say what you want about the suspect Iowa special teams this season, but Michael Meyer is having a very solid season as a freshman kicker. Meyer converted on four of five attempts on Saturday with a long of 42. Meyer is nine of eleven thus far on the season. As a freshman, Nate Kaeding missed eight field goals over the course of his inaugural campaign. Meyer’s miss came on a 22 yard attempt from the right hash mark. For a right footed kicker, a short kick from that hash mark is one of the more difficult kicks to ask a kicker to convert. Meyer’s ability to shake off his 22 yard miss and connect on a crucial 27 yard field goal showed me that he has the mental ability to be a kicker at the collegiate level.

The Leader. It was clear that Ricky Stanzi did not have one of his better games on Saturday, but when it mattered in the fourth quarter, Stanzi made the throws necessary to put his team in a position to win. Stanzi’s leadership in the huddle and calm presence in the fourth quarter is something that I am going to miss next year when he is gone. With only three regular season games and a bowl game left, I have to continue to remind myself how much I enjoy watching Stanzi play quarterback and how much Iowa fans will miss the intangibles that he brings to the position.

After breathing a collective sigh of relief on Saturday after Demarlo Belcher’s dropped pass, Iowa fans now have to look forward to Iowa’s most pesky opponent, the Northwestern Wildcats. While the fans have every reason to be concerned about the Wildcats, something tells me that this team is going to be focused in practice and will come out with a chip on its shoulder next Saturday.

Indiana Predictions

After a complete and dominating performance against a top ranked team, the Iowa Hawkeyes are on letdown alert against an Indiana Hoosiers team that has yet to win a conference game this season. Saturday’s game also starts a two game road stretch against two opponents that have given Iowa fits over the past several years. Here are my thoughts.

Running Attack. Earlier this week, Cedar Rapids Gazette beat writer Marc Morehouse reported that Adam Robinson did not practice on Tuesday. It was speculated that Robinson did not practice as a result of an apparent concussion suffered in the fourth quarter against Michigan State. If Robinson is unable to go, true freshman Marcus Coker will get his opportunity to show off his abilities to Iowa fans and the Iowa coaching staff. While there is no doubt the Iowa coaching staff will exercise the utmost caution by relying solely on the team doctors’ decision on whether to play Robinson, given the number of carries that Robinson has had this year, it seems as though this is a perfect game for Robinson to take a breather. Robinson is 10th nationally in terms of carries with 172 on the season. Against a shoddy Indiana rushing defense that ranks 10th in the Big Ten, it seems as though it presents a great opportunity to give Robinson a rest and give Coker repetitions in a meaningful game.

Pass Happy. In light of the uncertainty at running back, it is likely that the Iowa coaching staff will put the ball in the hands of fifth-year starting quarterback Ricky Stanzi to attack the Indiana defense through the air. In addition to a poor run defense, Indiana is also suspect against the pass allowing 216 yards per game. While Stanzi will certainly be able to throw the ball downfield against Indiana, do not be surprised to see the Hawkeyes come out with a controlled passing attack that relies heavily on short passes to Allen Reisner, Marvin McNutt, and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. I am curious to see whether the Iowa offense operates as efficiently as it did last Saturday especially in an atmosphere at Memorial Stadium that has been described as quiet.
Defensive Substitutions. Earlier this week it was announced that linebacker Tyler Nielsen will be out for the remainder of the year with neck issues. For a linebacker group that is already thin, this news added salt to an already gaping wound. On the positive side, however, Kirk Ferentz mentioned on his Wednesday call-in show that Jeremiha Hunter has been practicing this week after not playing last week. True freshman James Morris will get another start at middle linebacker this week after showing signs of great things to come last week against Michigan State recording nine tackles. When all is said and done at the end of his career, Morris may very well turn out to be one of those once-a-decade players at Iowa. It is likely that Troy Johnson or Ross Peterson will replace Nielsen at the WILL position. It was nice to see Jeff Tarpinian get playing time last week after nursing a neck stinger for the past month.

Style of Defense. Indiana’s offensive scheme, known as the Pistol, allows for flexibility with the running game by lining up the running back directly behind the quarterback. Indiana relies heavily on the pass out of the Pistol by typically running out of three wide receiver sets. Hoosier quarterback Ben Chappell is a solid quarterback who leads the Big Ten in passing, averaging a little over 305 yards per game. Chappell has several great targets at which to throw, including Demarlo Belcher, Tandon Doss, and Nick Turner. Belcher and Doss are both in the top five in the Big Ten in receiving yards per game. Expect the Hoosiers to attack the injured Iowa linebacker corps with short six-seven yard slant patterns. In response, I would suspect that the Iowa coaching staff will counter with a 3-4 scheme, which was used last week, or a nickel scheme with Greg Castillo as the other defensive back. Indiana has to rely on its passing attack as a result of an early season injury to star tailback Darius Willis. The Hoosiers rank 110th in the nation in rushing averaging only 97 yards per game. Because of this lack of a running game, the Iowa defense will be able to pin its ears back and force Chappell to make mistakes.

While many people view this game as a potential trap game, I think it is possible that we will see this team come out with the same intensity that they had last week against Michigan State. There is no such thing as looking ahead by a Kirk Ferentz-coached team, especially given that Ferentz simply needs to play the tape of last year’s game for this team to realize that they were down 24-10 at the start of the fourth quarter. Games like this one against an opponent like Indiana are very telling as to the moxy of a team. A team that is destined for great things takes care of business against teams that it should beat.

Prediction: Iowa 38 Indiana 13

Pick to Click: Derrell Johnson-Koulianos

Thoughts on Michigan State Game

After one of the more disappointing losses in recent memory, the Iowa Hawkeyes came out on Saturday and re-asserted themselves not only as a title contender in the Big Ten, but also as a relevant player in the BCS picture with a dominating 37-6 performance against Michigan State. Here are my thoughts.
Quick Start. Iowa teams under Kirk Ferentz have always seemed to be energized when the offense is able to move the ball down the field on the first drive and score a touchdown. That certainly seemed to be the case on Saturday when the Hawkeyes marched the ball down field on a 12 play 80 yard drive ending in a three yard touchdown pass from Ricky Stanzi to Colin Sandeman. Scoring on the first drive not only helps the defense out by giving them a lead, but it also has the effect of giving the offense confidence for the rest of the game. As a result of Iowa moving the ball at will on its first two drives, the Michigan State defense was on its heels the entire game until the 4th quarter when Iowa went exclusively to the ground game.

Quiet Warrior. Just another ho-hum performance for Iowa running back, Adam Robinson. While it has been written and said multiple times this season, Robinson’s value is immeasurable to this team. His ability to keep his legs moving while maintaining his balance are skills that overshadow any perceived lack of breakaway speed. It was nice to Marcus Coker get some meaningful carries in the second quarter, as Iowa will need to rely on him at least for a few carries in these remaining four games. My only complaint with the game was the decision to leave Robinson and other starters on both sides of the ball in the game so late into the fourth quarter. Perhaps it was because of Michigan State’s comeback abilities or the need for more practice, but the game seemed to be in hand that late in the game and an injury to any starter would have been devastating. Nonetheless, if the Iowa running attack can continue to produce like it has the entire season, defenses will be forced to respect the run allowing Stanzi to throw the ball downfield off of play action.

Defensive Line Pressure. While the Iowa defense only had one sack on Saturday by Steve Bigach, it was evident that Michigan State clearly respected Iowa’s front four by relying heavily on quick developing pass plays and not throwing downfield very often. Despite Adrian Clayborn having a relatively quiet game statistically, Mike Daniels and Christian Ballard looked impressive against the run with Daniels collecting two tackles for loss. Chances are that the Iowa front four will not put up gaudy statistics the next two weeks against Indiana and Northwestern offenses that like to air it out at six to eight yard clips; however, the Iowa defensive line will be able to use their strength and quickness in the next two games to get in the throwing lanes to knock down passes. Speaking of the defense, Tyler Sash had an incredible game on Saturday with an interception and subsequent lateral to Micah Hyde who went 66 yards for a touchdown. Sash also looked great in run support making several open field tackles with good tackling technique that may have been lacking by several members of the secondary the past few weeks.

Special Teams Coverage. The Iowa kickoff coverage unit looked much improved on Saturday limiting Michigan State to an average of 16 yards per kickoff. Don Nordmann and Tom Donatell are quickly making themselves known to the Iowa faithful with their solid tackling on kickoffs as the unit as a whole continues to improve. It is apparent that the kickoff coverage unit is taking pride in its play the past few weeks, which pride and intensity may have been lacking early on in the season. It is also apparent that the Iowa coaching staff has placed more emphasis on this aspect of the game the last few weeks.

Iowa’s win on Saturday not only ended Michigan State’s national championship dreams, but it also gave this team the confidence that they desperately needed after last week’s agonizing loss to realize that they are still a good football team that has a lot to play for the remainder of the year. Several players commented on Saturday that practice last week was much better than it had been, as everyone picked up the tempo and worked harder. Iowa’s game against Indiana will be very telling as to the mentality of this team. If Iowa comes out and plays like they did on Saturday, it will tell me that the team leadership is continuing to follow the mantra of its coaching staff by taking one game at a time.

Michigan State Predictions

It is no big stretch to say that Iowa’s game this Saturday will define its season. After a heart-wrenching loss last week against Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes enter the Michigan State with a glimmer of hope that a co-Big Ten championship is still possible. Here are my thoughts.

Run Defense. The past two weeks have been uncharacteristic for the Iowa defense as they have not been able to, as Norm Parker is fond of saying, “put out the fire.” Part of that has been due to an ever shifting corps of linebackers that may be different again this Saturday with Jeff Tarpinian still questionable and Jeremiha Hunter also questionable to play. At the beginning of the year, Kirk Ferentz hinted to the fact that given the option he would prefer a veteran defensive line over a veteran group of linebackers. While Iowa’s linebackers have played well this year, it is clear that Iowa misses the run defense play of Pat Angerer and AJ Edds. James Morris, who will undoubtedly be a great player some day, just does not have the experience that is required of a linebacker to react in a split second rather than think then act within that limited time frame. Iowa’s front seven will once again be challenged on Saturday against the three-headed running attack of Michigan State. Edwin Baker, Larry Caper, and Le’Veon Bell have combined to lead the Spartans to an average of 193.5 yards per game on the ground. The Iowa defensive line will have a much easier task this week against the Michigan State offensive line than against the monstrous Wisconsin offensive line, as Michigan State’s size up front is not as daunting and is not as experienced.

Small Matters. In Iowa’s losses against Arizona and Wisconsin, the small mistakes compounded and led to big plays for the opponents, ultimately leading to those two losses. While no team can play a perfect game, minimizing mistakes and not allowing an opponent to capitalize on those mistakes are critical in order for a team to walk away with a victory. Unlike last year when Iowa was able to cause its opponents to make mistakes and capitalize on those mistakes, the tables have seemed to turn. Iowa has uncharacteristically shot itself in the foot and those small mistakes were exploited by Arizona and Wisconsin. Granted the season is a little more than half way over, which leads me to believe that there is time for the Iowa players to learn from their mistakes over the prior seven games. This Saturday is another big litmus test to see how they have learned from those mistakes.

Play-Action. After another impressive performance by Adam Robinson, Michigan State will have to respect the run allowing Ricky Stanzi to attack the Spartan defense who will not be able to sell out against the run or the pass. By continuing to establish the run, Iowa can rely on the play-action pass, which Stanzi does such a great job of selling to make defenders think run first. All-American linebacker Greg Jones will be all over the place on Saturday both in the running game and the passing game. Jones is fifth in the Big Ten in tackles and has that uncanny sixth sense for anticipating a play and knowing where to go to be in a position to make a play. His cohort, Eric Gordon, is also a very talented linebacker who can make plays in space. Michigan State’s secondary, however, is vulnerable, ranking seventh in the Big Ten in passing defense giving up 213.5 yards per game. The Spartan secondary has also been depleted the past few weeks with senior cornerback Chris L. Rucker in jail for violating his probation for last year’s assault involving several other members of the football by being charged for drunken driving on October 10. Rucker was released from jail on Thursday and, curiously, was reinstated upon his release by Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio for this Saturday’s game. Rucker was the cornerback in last year’s game who received the pass interference call that kept the Iowa drive alive and was the cornerback who got beat by Marvin McNutt on the final play of the game when “7 got 6.” With Rucker back, Michigan State’s secondary improves dramatically and presents an additional challenge for which Iowa must prepare.

Spartan Attack. In addition to the rushing attack that Michigan State presents, quarterback Kirk Cousins is the best quarterback Iowa will play against this year with Arizona quarterback Nick Foles a close second. Cousins is one of the most efficient passers in the nation and has the patience necessary to beat Iowa with short six-seven yard passes the entire game. Cousins’ targets include Mark Dell, B.J. Cunningham, Keshawn Martin, and tight end Charlie Gantt who are all quality receivers that can make the big plays when necessary. Against an Iowa secondary that was picked apart by Scott Tolzien last week, Michigan State has to be licking its chops thinking about its possibilities.

Michigan State’s first undefeated season since 1966 is almost complete given that their remaining schedule consists of a home games against Minnesota and Purdue and a road contests at Penn State. While it is one of the easiest roads to a Big Ten championship in recent history, Sparty still must clear the final hurdle of winning at Kinnick Stadium. The last three games between the two schools have gone down to the wire and I expect nothing less this time around. Michigan State is playing with the confidence that it can win any game against any opponent. The Spartans are playing with that same level of confidence that the Hawkeyes exhibited last year when the Hawkeyes were invincible until Stanzi went down against Northwestern. As has been the case all season long, this game will come down to what team makes more mistakes and has the better special teams. Based on those two indicators, it would seem as though Iowa should lose the game; however, I think this game marks when Iowa turns its season around.

Prediction: Iowa 24 Michigan State 21

Pick to Click: Christian Ballard

Thoughts on Wisconsin Game

For some unknown reason, losses always hurt our psyche more than wins make us feel good. One of the most disappointing parts of Iowa’s 31-30 loss to Wisconsin is that the Badgers beat Iowa at its own game of not making mistakes and capitalizing on special teams. Here are my thoughts.

Spike. While it was certainly not the reason why Iowa lost the game, the confusion and subsequent timeout after the quarterback sneak on 4th and one is at the focal point of Iowa fans’ disappointment after the game. One of the things that I admire the most about Kirk Ferentz is his willingness to never place blame on his players nor his coaching staff. Regardless of who is to blame for the timeout, fourth down, and timeout sequence, the decision to not spike the ball after Ricky Stanzi picked up the first down is inexcusable. At that point in the game, time is the limited resource with which one must be concerned—not the down and distance. A spike on first down stops the clock, gives the offense the opportunity to regroup and, with the time that was left in the game, run one maybe two plays to at least give the kicker a chance at a field goal. This one mistake did not lose the game for Iowa, but it was a microcosm of what went wrong on Saturday for Iowa.

Special Teams. Saying that the difference in a game will be special teams is one of the most cliché sayings in football; however, behind every cliché is some truth. Iowa’s two losses this season can be directly attributed to poor special teams. A blocked extra point, a botched field goal attempt, and an offside on kickoff resulting in 35 yards of hidden yardage made the difference between losing a game by one point and winning a game by three to ten points. Each week I have been predicting improvement in this area of the game and while it seems like a broken record at this point, I am going to predict that Iowa’s special teams will improve over the course of the next five weeks.

Offense. One of the bright spots on Saturday was the play of Adam Robinson and Ricky Stanzi. Robinson is quickly becoming a fan favorite with his determined running style, the effort he displays on the field in each game, and his pleasant demeanor off the field. Stanzi also had another incredibly efficient game ending with 258 yards and three touchdown passes. While he may have missed some open receivers deep down the field and instead settled for underneath throws, he managed the game very well and looked extremely confident in the pocket due to the great effort from the Iowa offensive line. I was surprised that Iowa did not throw off of play action that often on Saturday given how Wisconsin had to respect Iowa’s running attack behind Robinson. It will be interesting to see whether Iowa looks to stretch the field next week against a Michigan State pass defense that ranks in the middle of the Big Ten allowing 213 yards per game. Likewise, star Michigan State cornerback Chris L. Rucker may still be left off the roster following some disciplinary issues that have kept him off the field the last two weeks.

The loss on Saturday may have been the most disappointing loss by Iowa since the loss in 2006 at Northwestern when Iowa lost in the closing minutes after holding a 14 point lead with eight minutes left. The fact that Iowa seemed to be outcoached by Bret Bielema also leaves Iowa fans with an uneasy feeling given that Wisconsin out-Iowa’ed Iowa. It is not hyperbole to say that Iowa’s season may be defined this Saturday against Michigan State. A loss this Saturday could mean the difference between still having a Big Ten championship to play for and going into loss prevention mode to salvage the season. In order for the championship dream to remain alive, the Iowa defense needs to get back to their “put out the fire” mentality that has defined the Iowa defense under this coaching staff. Kirk Ferentz has mentioned that Norm Parker may be able to get back in the coaching booth this season, which may give the Iowa defense the inspiration and leadership they need to get back on track. No matter how many times one dissects this game, until the black and gold runs back on the field next Saturday, this loss will still linger like a bad cold that will not go away.

Wisconsin Predictions

The first game of Iowa’s remaining three home games will take Iowa fans and players back to an era of football that is seldom seen in today’s world of spread offenses and defenses that cannot hold teams under 35 points. Every year before this matchup media members discuss the similarities between the two programs and styles of play, all of which is true. It is unfortunate that the Iowa and Wisconsin game had to be the sacrificial lamb of Big Ten conference re-alignment, but everyone knew going into the process that at least one annual matchups would be lost. Nevertheless, the hype leading up to this game is almost as good as the buildup prior to the 2004 Iowa and Wisconsin game that ended up being for the Big Ten championship. Here are my thoughts.


Individual Matchup. Adrian Clayborn has been an absolutely disruptive force this year despite the statistics to support his tremendous play. As observant fans are aware, Clayborn has been double and, sometimes, triple teamed most of the season. Saturday, however, will present a different challenge for Clayborn when he faces Wisconsin left tackle Gabe Carimi. Clayborn and Carimi are both top NFL draft prospects who have battled against one another in the past two seasons. Clayborn got the best of an injured Carimi last year recording six tackles, two tackles for losses, and a sack. I am certainly interested in watching two top notch athletes going at each other for four quarters, but I am also curious to see how Clayborn plays against a scheme that will likely allow its offensive tackle to take on Clayborn without any support of a tight end or a running back. Those Iowa fans that have been clamoring for more statistics from Clayborn this season may just get their wish on Saturday against a quality opponent.

Passing Efficiency. Ricky Stanzi has quietly put together an outstanding season at the helm of the Iowa offense. Stanzi is third in the nation in passing efficiency with a quarterback rating of 180.49, which is incredible. Marc Morehouse of the Cedar Rapids Gazette wrote a great piece earlier this week on the time that Stanzi spent in the film room this summer and the time he spends in the film room during the season. That dedication is paying off for the Iowa offense and the Iowa fans that have been able to enjoy Stanzi’s production this season. Stanzi’s play on Saturday will again be critical, as I expect the coaching staff to attempt to establish the run to set up the play action. The Wisconsin pass defense is, however, salty against the pass giving up only 193 yards per game. Iowa’s offensive game plan may also change based on the weather, which may force both teams to rely more heavily on the running game than planned. Stanzi has the opportunity once again on the national stage to add to his already impressive season and increase his draft stock.

Coverage. Wisconsin kick returner David Gilreath started off last Saturday’s win against Ohio State with a bang when he returned the opening kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown. Iowa’s kickoff coverage unit has been much maligned this season and will need to continue its improvement in this area to prevent special teams plays that can mean the difference between winning and losing games against good competition. It has been interesting to see how the personnel of Iowa’s special teams units have changed since the beginning of the year as more and more defensive starters have found their way on kickoff and punt coverage. Likewise, several true freshman, including Don Shumpert who had his redshirt pulled last Saturday, have seen more time on special teams units this season. Regardless of personnel, Iowa’s special teams have to win their battles on Saturday, as the margin for error in the other facets of the game are very slim.

Wisconsin Air Attack. While everyone knows Wisconsin has a great running game with John Clay and James White behind a gigantic offensive line, I am not entirely sold on Scott Tolzien and the Wisconsin air attack. Wisconsin ranks 75th in the nation in passing offense averaging just over 201 yards per game. As a point of comparison, Iowa ranks 30th in the nation averaging 253 yards per game. What that tells me is that if Iowa is able to get a two score lead, Wisconsin is not built to play from behind with their passing offense. Tolzien will not only have to deal with what should be a raucous crowd, but he may also have to deal with the elements affecting his ability to throw. Although it is no guarantee or certainty that Iowa can build a lead, if they are able to, I think it will be difficult for Wisconsin’s offense to play catch up with their run-first mentality on offense.

As I mentioned earlier, the fact that the Heartland Trophy game was lost to Big Ten re-alignment is unfortunate, but it adds a tiny, yet additional element of motivation for this contest. For teams that are so identical, Iowa has seemingly had Wisconsin’s number the past decade winning four out of the last five at Kinnick Stadium. While a loss would not put Iowa out of the Big Ten race, it would put them in the position of relying on other teams to lose. Fortunately, Iowa has the opportunity to have its Big Ten destiny in its own hands for the remainder of the season. What is unfortunate is that weather may play a role in the game on Saturday, which I do not think benefits either team one way or the other. Regardless of what Mother Nature has in store for Saturday, Wisconsin is just one of those teams that Iowa plays well against under Kirk Ferentz and I do not see that changing this time.

Prediction: Iowa 20 Wisconsin 13

Pick to Click: Karl Klug

Thoughts on Michigan Game

Ok, I admit it, I was wrong. An inspired Iowa team went on the road to the largest outdoor sports venue in the United States and beat an athletic and talented Michigan team in a game in which Iowa fans re-lived the drama of last season during the fourth quarter. Despite being outgained on the offensive side of the ball, the Hawkeyes made plays when it mattered and now hold the key to their Big Ten destiny. Here are my thoughts.

Robinson. The number of times that Denard Robinson’s name was mentioned this week among the Iowa media and fans made it seem as though the event was an individual sporting event and not a team sport. Adam Robinson, however, clearly stole the show between the two Robinsons. Robinson finished with 143 yards on the ground on 31 carries and four receptions for 61 yards. The determination and grit that he runs with outweigh any breakaway speed that he may lack. Robinson’s uncanny ability to make guys miss and to gain those extra two to three yards has hopefully endeared him to Hawkeye fans and have convinced everyone that he can indeed be the sole running back for the remainder of the season. It is clear to me that through six games Robinson has been Iowa’s MVP. If he can stay healthy and keep up efforts like he had on Saturday, Iowa fans should be in for a treat for the remainder of the season.

Defense. Even though the numbers do not reflect a good performance, Iowa’s defense played a solid game. Michigan’s offensive style lends itself to racking up gaudy numbers, so I am not as concerned about the numbers that Michigan compiled. I am concerned, however, about what I perceived to be several fundamental breakdowns. This seemed to be the second consecutive game in which the Iowa defense tackled very poorly. Instead of breaking down, driving through the ball carrier and wrapping up, there seemed to be a lot of attempted arm tackles and bad angles. If I was able to notice those miscues, it is a pretty safe bet that the Iowa coaching staff will make a point of it this week in practice. Likewise, I thought the Iowa defense became a little complacent late in the third quarter and was not flying to the ball as well as they normally do. Either way, spread offenses like Michigan and Northwestern have always given the Iowa defense trouble, so the prospect of facing traditional style offenses in the next two week has to be appetizing for an Iowa defense that I believe will regain its confidence in a hurry.

Quiet Performers. Several players had quiet yet very productive games. Brad Rogers, who was filling in for the injured Brett Morse, looked very impressive and comfortable at fullback. Rogers not only had a great catch out of the backfield but he also made several outstanding kick-out blocks on Robinson runs that resulted in long gains. The Iowa offensive line also had a solid effort on Saturday paving the way for Robinson and giving Stanzi time to throw the ball downfield. While this unit has plenty of room for improvement, they have come together nicely and will be needed in the second and third legs of this three game gauntlet.
Key Kick. All year long people have been wondering how the Iowa kickers would perform in big situations. On Saturday Michael Meyer eased those concerns and gained some confidence when he nailed a 30 yard field goal at a critical point in the fourth quarter to give Iowa a ten point lead. The fact that he made the kick on the road in such a hostile environment tells me that Meyer may have the mental ability that it takes to be a kicker. Hopefully that confidence will help him at home in the next two weeks when he will undoubtedly be called upon in key situations.

A win at Michigan Stadium is a momentous win in any year regardless of how down the Michigan football program may be at the present. Iowa’s win on Saturday marked only the seventh time in the program’s history in which they have won in Ann Arbor. As several writers pointed out on Saturday evening and Sunday, the road to the Big Ten championship runs through Iowa City as Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State all visit Kinnick Stadium. Wisconsin will come into Kinnick Stadium next Saturday riding the emotional high of defeating the number one ranked team in the country. Michigan State could come into Kinnick Stadium in two weeks ranked in the top five in the country. Given that the Iowa defense thrives playing against traditional style offenses, I think the Hawkeyes will be in a good position to walk away with two wins. One way or another, we will know if Iowa is in the driver’s seat in the Big Ten conference race.

Michigan Predictions

Despite the Big Ten season starting two weeks ago, it seems as though Iowa starts its 2010 Big Ten campaign this Saturday in Ann Arbor against an opponent that has one of the most exciting players in college football. This game is also the beginning of a three game stretch in which Iowa can show that it deserves to be a top ten team nationally and is a legitimate contender to win the Big Ten championship. Here are my thoughts.

Shoelace. I might as well start off discussing this game with the topic that has dominated every conversation leading up to this game. Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson has done things this year that no other player in college football history has ever done. He has thrown for more than 200 yards and rushed for more than 200 yards twice this year, which is more than any other player in college football history. Prior to his three interception performance last week against Michigan State, Robinson was beating teams not only with his legs but his arm. However, the Spartans exposed a weakness that when Michigan is playing from behind and Robinson is forced to throw the ball he tends to make bad decisions in reading the coverage, which led to the three interceptions last week. Robinson will get his yards but, as is often the case with a great offense against the Iowa defense under a Kirk Ferentz, if the Iowa defense can clamp down in the red zone against Michigan and force field goal attempts, the defense will have done its job. Robinson was limited to 86 yards last week against a Michigan State rush defense that ranks 25th in the country against the run allowing 111 yards on the ground. Michigan’s prior opponents have allowed an average of 178 yards on the ground, which would be good enough for 90th in the country. Iowa’s defense against the run is second in the country allowing only 63.2 yards per game. While Iowa’s opponents have not exactly been world beaters, the statistic is impressive nonetheless. If the Iowa defense can find a way to make Robinson one-dimensional, they will certainly give the offense an opportunity to put points on the board.

Pass Attack. While the Michigan offense has been impressive this year, the Michigan defense has been a complete and utter disappointment. Michigan ranks 112th in the country in total defense having given up an average of 450 yards per game. If Iowa can go turnover free or win the turnover battle, the Iowa offense should be able to move the ball on a consistent basis. Iowa’s best defense could be the Iowa offense remaining on the field in order to keep the ball out of the hands of Robinson. I expect Iowa to establish the pass in order to set up the run to draw out the clock especially given the fact that Iowa is limited at the running back position. In his press conference this week, Kirk Ferentz seemed to indicate that, barring injury, Adam Robinson will be the only person to carry the ball for the Hawkeyes. While Marcus Coker is talented, I do not blame the coaching staff for being nervous about having a true freshman hanging on to the ball and, more importantly, pick up blitzes to protect fifth-year starting quarterback Ricky Stanzi. This game is an opportunity for Stanzi to shine and be a leader for this team in what will be a typical hostile Big Ten crowd. Look for offensive coordinator Ken O’Keefe to challenge the young Michigan secondary by throwing the ball downfield in an effort to limit the number of carries by Adam Robinson.

Linebackers. While it is probably a debate more fitting for those more well-versed in defense, I tend to think that the key to defending a mobile quarterback is a fast and veteran linebacker corps. Jeremiha Hunter is the sole returning starter of the Iowa linebackers, and although Tyler Nielsen has looked very athletic in the first five games, he has simply not had the repetitions in a game setting to react instinctively rather than thinking then acting. Hunter and Nielsen will both have to be at their best, as the middle linebacker position is a question mark entering the game. Jeff Tarpinian is questionable after a stinger he suffered in practice before the Penn State game. Troy Johnson, a fifth-year senior will likely start but, like Nielsen, does not have significant game experience at middle linebacker despite winning Big Ten player of the week honors against Minnesota last season while filling in for Hunter. Behind Johnson is true freshman James Morris. The lingering image in my mind is one of Robinson getting past the Iowa defensive line and beat the Iowa linebackers to the outside. Granted, I hope that I am wrong and that if Robinson does get to the second level, the Iowa secondary can limit the big gains, but I am still concerned about the linebackers’ ability to contain Robinson.

End Play. Iowa’s domination of Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl has been brought up several times this week given the run-oriented nature of Georgia Tech and Michigan. Even though there are significant differences between the two offenses, the principles of what is required by the defensive line is the same, which is to say that Iowa’s defensive line will have to play disciplined gap control and cannot break contain on the ends. If Adrian Clayborn, Broderick Binns, and Christian Ballard in their defensive end positions can funnel Robinson and the Michigan ground game to the middle where there is help from the defensive tackles and the linebackers, Iowa should be able to have the same success as Michigan State against Michigan’s ground game. On the other hand, over-aggressive end play that causes them to get up field too quickly will give Robinson gaping holes to run through to get to the outside.

For the past several weeks I have been saying before each game that the particular game would tell us more about Iowa. Five games into the season I am still unsure about this team and what they are capable of doing this season. Iowa State, Arizona and Penn State have all had their disappointments this season and make Iowa’s wins against them seem insignificant. Without a doubt, however, the next three games will certainly show Iowa fans what type of team they have this year. If you remember, I picked this game as one in which Iowa would lose and that was before knowing that Robinson would start at quarterback for Michigan or knowing that he would be the Heisman contender that he has been thus far this year. While I think the Iowa defense and offense are capable of slowing down the Michigan offense and scoring points against a porous Michigan defense, I have seen the Iowa routine against a mobile quarterback before and my memories of those games are not good ones. Call me crazy and call me someone who will gladly eat crow on Sunday, but I am sticking with my prediction at the beginning of the year.

Prediction: Iowa 24 Michigan 28

Pick to Click: Ricky Stanzi