Northwestern Predictions

Any other year this game would be a game that Iowa would need to become bowl eligible or to improve its bowl position. This game and this season, however, is a totally different story. To make matters even more interesting, Iowa has not exactly played well against Northwestern at home, thus this game has all of the elements of a classic Big Ten showdown. Here are my thoughts.

Another Quarterback Showdown. Despite their lackluster play so far this year, the Big Ten’s quarterbacks are, in my humble opinion, an underrated group. Ricky Stanzi has shown uncanny leadership. Scott Tolzien is an efficient and steady passer. Kirk Cousins has the tools to play at the next level. Tate Forcier is a fiery signal caller who will only get better. Terrelle Pryor is an incredible athlete still learning his role at quarterback. Daryll Clark as the elder statesmen of the bunch has his team headed toward another BCS bowl berth. Finally, Mike Kafka is arguably the best all-around quarterback in the league. Kafka leads the league in passing yards per game with a 243 average and leads the league in total offense with an average of 271 yards a game. To say he means a lot to his team would be an understatement, as he is responsible for approximately 69% of Northwestern’s offense this season. Like his predecessor, C.J. Bacher, Kafka has the ability to pick apart a defense with short routes and precise passes. Unlike Bacher, however, Kafka can be deadly with his legs. Although the Northwestern injury report did not list Kafka under any status, it will be pretty incredible if he goes the entire game without his hamstring flaring up at some point. Pat Fitzgerald can say all he wants, but a hamstring injury that causes a player to miss an entire half does not suddenly get better in a week. If Kafka does indeed play, there is no way that he will be playing at a capacity higher than seventy-five percent. His backup, Dan Persa, is a steady quarterback, but is not good enough to beat this Iowa defense with his arm or legs.

Defensive Looks. Just so that you are prepared for it on Saturday, Northwestern will be able to move the ball at six and seven yard increments for most of the day. One of the keys to preventing Northwestern from marching up and down the field is the ability of Iowa’s front four to get penetration to disrupt the timing of the Northwestern passing attack. Granted, most of Northwestern’s pass plays are predicated on short routes leaving almost no time to even have a chance for the defense to get to the quarterback, but the front seven’s ability to disrupt the timing and force the quarterback to improvise will be important to shutting down the Wildcat attack. Other than Kafka, Northwestern does not have much of a running threat ranking 10th in the Big Ten in rushing offense at 121 yards a game. Look for Pat Angerer and AJ Edds to have busy days as they drop back in coverage and contain the Northwestern receivers to their initial 6 or 7 yards and no more. Because of health concerns, it sounds as though Norm Parker will be spending the rest of the year in the press box. Although his presence on the field will be missed, I do not think that having Parker in the press box will have much effect on the defense.

Stretching the Field. If Northwestern saw anything from the film from Iowa’s win against Indiana, they likely saw how Iowa was able to exploit Indiana with the play-action waggle. Indiana had eight, sometimes nine, defenders in the box, just begging Iowa to beat them deep. With the wind at its back, Iowa did just that scoring on consecutive series with just two plays. Given the forecast for Saturday, I think we will see Iowa set-up the play action early on by going to Brandon Wegher often. Northwestern’s defense is beaten up, as they have had twenty different players start for them on defense this season, including nine different players in the defensive backfield. I also hope that Ken O’Keefe gets Stanzi off on the right foot by slowly working him into the game by throwing short routes to Tony Moeaki and the rest of the receiving corps. Iowa has had a tendency to look for the deep ball on first down early in the game, and while I am happy with O’Keefe looking to throw the ball down field, I wish the timing were better. Maybe it is something that the defense is showing that leads to those calls. Either way, it would be nice to see the Iowa offense get out to an early start and move the ball convincingly.

Kicking Game. As I mentioned after the Indiana game, I think what we saw out of Iowa’s special teams was an aberration. Ryan Donahue will be back to his normal self after trying to knock one out of the park last week, which led to an eight yard punt. Likewise, I think Daniel Murray will have a few opportunities on Saturday to put some points on the board and work on increasing his trajectory. Fortunately, because Northwestern’s kicker doubles as their punter, Iowa will not have many opportunities to return a punt. Opponents have only returned ten punts against Northwestern this year, but that is due, in large part, to being dead last in the Big Ten in punting average. Given Iowa’s disaster of a punt return game last week, that is definitely a positive mark in Iowa’s column.

Normally, the week leading up to a game against Northwestern is always one filled with some anxiety due to their offensive scheme. However, I think Iowa went through their sleepwalking game of the year last week against Indiana. With all that is at stake and with the finish line of the regular season almost near, there is no way that this team will overlook Northwestern. If Kafka is a no go for the Wildcats, this game could get ugly. I think the Iowa offense gets on track and turns the keys over to the defense to do what they do best, which is stifling opponents’ offenses. Be sure to pay attention to the Ohio State/Penn State game on Saturday. An Iowa win and a Nittany Lion win almost assures Iowa a Rose Bowl berth, even if the Hawkeyes stub their toe in Columbus.

Prediction: Iowa 38 Northwestern 13

Pick to Click: Tony Moeaki