Indiana Predictions

After a complete and dominating performance against a top ranked team, the Iowa Hawkeyes are on letdown alert against an Indiana Hoosiers team that has yet to win a conference game this season. Saturday’s game also starts a two game road stretch against two opponents that have given Iowa fits over the past several years. Here are my thoughts.

Running Attack. Earlier this week, Cedar Rapids Gazette beat writer Marc Morehouse reported that Adam Robinson did not practice on Tuesday. It was speculated that Robinson did not practice as a result of an apparent concussion suffered in the fourth quarter against Michigan State. If Robinson is unable to go, true freshman Marcus Coker will get his opportunity to show off his abilities to Iowa fans and the Iowa coaching staff. While there is no doubt the Iowa coaching staff will exercise the utmost caution by relying solely on the team doctors’ decision on whether to play Robinson, given the number of carries that Robinson has had this year, it seems as though this is a perfect game for Robinson to take a breather. Robinson is 10th nationally in terms of carries with 172 on the season. Against a shoddy Indiana rushing defense that ranks 10th in the Big Ten, it seems as though it presents a great opportunity to give Robinson a rest and give Coker repetitions in a meaningful game.

Pass Happy. In light of the uncertainty at running back, it is likely that the Iowa coaching staff will put the ball in the hands of fifth-year starting quarterback Ricky Stanzi to attack the Indiana defense through the air. In addition to a poor run defense, Indiana is also suspect against the pass allowing 216 yards per game. While Stanzi will certainly be able to throw the ball downfield against Indiana, do not be surprised to see the Hawkeyes come out with a controlled passing attack that relies heavily on short passes to Allen Reisner, Marvin McNutt, and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. I am curious to see whether the Iowa offense operates as efficiently as it did last Saturday especially in an atmosphere at Memorial Stadium that has been described as quiet.
Defensive Substitutions. Earlier this week it was announced that linebacker Tyler Nielsen will be out for the remainder of the year with neck issues. For a linebacker group that is already thin, this news added salt to an already gaping wound. On the positive side, however, Kirk Ferentz mentioned on his Wednesday call-in show that Jeremiha Hunter has been practicing this week after not playing last week. True freshman James Morris will get another start at middle linebacker this week after showing signs of great things to come last week against Michigan State recording nine tackles. When all is said and done at the end of his career, Morris may very well turn out to be one of those once-a-decade players at Iowa. It is likely that Troy Johnson or Ross Peterson will replace Nielsen at the WILL position. It was nice to see Jeff Tarpinian get playing time last week after nursing a neck stinger for the past month.

Style of Defense. Indiana’s offensive scheme, known as the Pistol, allows for flexibility with the running game by lining up the running back directly behind the quarterback. Indiana relies heavily on the pass out of the Pistol by typically running out of three wide receiver sets. Hoosier quarterback Ben Chappell is a solid quarterback who leads the Big Ten in passing, averaging a little over 305 yards per game. Chappell has several great targets at which to throw, including Demarlo Belcher, Tandon Doss, and Nick Turner. Belcher and Doss are both in the top five in the Big Ten in receiving yards per game. Expect the Hoosiers to attack the injured Iowa linebacker corps with short six-seven yard slant patterns. In response, I would suspect that the Iowa coaching staff will counter with a 3-4 scheme, which was used last week, or a nickel scheme with Greg Castillo as the other defensive back. Indiana has to rely on its passing attack as a result of an early season injury to star tailback Darius Willis. The Hoosiers rank 110th in the nation in rushing averaging only 97 yards per game. Because of this lack of a running game, the Iowa defense will be able to pin its ears back and force Chappell to make mistakes.

While many people view this game as a potential trap game, I think it is possible that we will see this team come out with the same intensity that they had last week against Michigan State. There is no such thing as looking ahead by a Kirk Ferentz-coached team, especially given that Ferentz simply needs to play the tape of last year’s game for this team to realize that they were down 24-10 at the start of the fourth quarter. Games like this one against an opponent like Indiana are very telling as to the moxy of a team. A team that is destined for great things takes care of business against teams that it should beat.

Prediction: Iowa 38 Indiana 13

Pick to Click: Derrell Johnson-Koulianos