Thursday, September 10, 2009

Iowa State Predictions

I have not felt good about this game since before the 2005 game, and we all know that outcome. To add insult to injury, there are rumors going around the Hawkeye Nation that Bryan Bulaga has not practiced this week and may not play on Saturday. The topic first surfaced on Thursday during a chat with all of the CR Gazette beat writers. Marc Morehouse spilled the beans that Bulaga has not practiced this week. From that point, the message boards have been running rampant with speculation. Ken Miller of 1460 KXNO in Des Moines stated during the Matt & Miller show that he has it from several sources that Bulaga is in fact out for Saturday. I guess the only thing all of us can do is wait and see.

Offensive Keys: There is no other way to put it than simply stating that the Iowa offense has to improve from their performance last week against UNI. However, unlike the UNI game, I think it will be important for the offense to set-up the run through the pass. My guess is that the Iowa State defense will crowd the box as if to say, “Come on, Ricky Stanzi, show me what you got.” I would guess that Ken O’Keefe will have Stanzi throwing the ball on the run quite often, either through a roll-out or the classic, fake-stretch play waggle. Tony Moeaki will play a huge role if the Iowa offense has any type of success. I will be curious to see what Adam Robinson can do this week in a hostile environment. Regardless of how they do it, the Iowa offense must win the time of possession battle on Saturday. A failure to do so will result in a tired defense going up against a no-huddle, spread offense for an entire day, which equals a recipe for disaster.

Defensive Keys: I have had visions all week of Austin Arnaud having three step drops and hitting his receivers over the middle for 5-7 yard routes all day long. Nonetheless, it is hard to overlook the fact that Iowa State has not scored a touchdown against Iowa since 2006. Iowa State also has not won against a BCS opponent since September 6, 2008 in a home game against Kent State, so there is some optimism to think that Iowa’s defense is up to the challenge. Nonetheless, the stories about Tom Herman’s no-huddle offense have me worried. It was evident last week that the defensive line was worn down by the fourth quarter, so it is scary to think about what kind of shape they may be in against Iowa State late in the game. The key for the Iowa defense will be to cause disruption in the Iowa State backfield with the front four. Despite what many people think, Norm Parker actually did call some blitzes last week, but no one thinks that he did because none of the players executed by sacking Pat Grace. However, if Iowa’s front four can cause problems for Arnaud, then I think things will go well for the Hawks on defense. Either way, I think that you will see Norm utilize a nickel back during passing situations.

Like any game, the team that does not turn the ball over or shoot itself in the foot by getting penalized, usually has the advantage. Ever since Dan McCarney reinvigorated this rivalry during his tenure, this game has worried me. For some reason, Iowa always tends to make mental mistakes when they play in Ames, including penalties, turnovers, and just all-around poor play. If Bulaga does not play, I think that the offensive line will again struggle to work as a unit. I also think that Iowa State’s offense will move the ball up and down the field, but will likely have to settle for field goal attempts more often than not. The offense will likely sputter at times and have problems being able to sustain long, clock-eating drives. Add the fact that the home team has won this game the last five years and things begin to look bleak. My prediction is based on the fact that it goes against every fiber of my being to pick Iowa State to win. Despite my prediction, I am not going to be surprised one bit if Iowa State wins. Nonetheless, I will be up at 7:10 in the morning to get in line at The Other Place to cheer loudly for the Hawks with my fellow Kansas City Hawkeye fans.

Prediction: Iowa 17 Iowa State 13

Pick to Click: Pat Angerer

Go Hawks!

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Recap of the UNI Game

Wow. That three letter word pretty much sums up my thoughts after the game on Saturday. I will have to admit, I was in full crisis mode at halftime. I was calling and texting all of my diehard Hawkeye friends to rant and rave about Iowa’s performance in the first half. Nonetheless, the second half showed signs of (some) improvement and following a moment that you will never see again (i.e. blocking two field goals in a row), a win. Here are some of my thoughts on the game.

Defense. Following the game, I thought the Iowa defense looked terrible at times. I thought the run support from the secondary was poor in terms of tackling, I thought the front four were not able to put enough pressure on Patrick Grace, and I thought the linebackers were non-existent at times. Then, per usual, I thought about it some more and have come to the conclusion that this defense is going to be a standard Norm Parker defense. The Iowa defense gave up only two field goals in the second half. Yes, they did give up a lot of yards in the final drive. But, and this is important, they only gave up six points. We have seen this scene before with Norm Parker defenses, give up the short 7 yard plays all day long down the field, but when the opponent arrives at the Iowa 20 yard line, it becomes an entirely different story as the defense more often than not forces the opponent to kick a field goal. This defense is going to be just fine when it is all said and done.


Offensive Line Play. Our offensive line play was below average to poor at times on Saturday. However, as the eternal optimist when it comes to Iowa football, I think that once Kyle Calloway returns, which he will this week, and once Julian Vandervelde is starting again (he will see some snaps on Saturday according to Kirk Ferentz's presser on Tues.), this offensive line will be a totally different unite. The zone blocking scheme is predicated on cohesive movement and unspoken rhythm. Once the line begins to mold as a unit, I think the unit will live up to their pre-season expectations. Now do some of you believe me when I said going into the year that this team would miss Rob Bruggeman more than any other player?


Ground Game. Unfortunately, Paki O'Meara just did not have the type of game that many Iowa fans and perhaps the coaches expected. As I wrote before the game, one of the most important things for both running backs heading into the game was ball security. O’Meara unfortunately shot himself in the foot on the first drive of the third quarter, which landed him on the sidelines for the remainder of the second half. Although he will still receive some carries against ISU, the majority of the carries will go to former Lincoln Railsplitter Adam Robinson. Robinson showed some signs of ability to hit the hole hard and shake off tacklers. The area in which it appears as though he needs to improve is his patience for a running lane to develop. Young running backs seem to have a tendency to hit the hole too hard before the linemen have engaged the defenders. Likewise, they tend to not see the cutback lane. The ability to "see" the cutback lane is vital in the Iowa offense because of the zone blocking scheme. When the zone blocking scheme works well, the cutback lane is open for a running back to take full advantage. It is still unclear whether Jeff Brinson will play at all Saturday. If I had to break it down, my guess is that Robinson will receive 75% of the carries, O'Meara 15%, and Brinson 10%. Perhaps we will get a Brandon Wegher sighting at running back, but do not hold your breath. Would you give the ball to a true freshmen running back for his first carry in a rivalry game at the opponent's stadium? Yeah, I thought so.


Special Teams. Ryan Donahue was arguably the player of the game on Saturday. His booming punts that stopped on a dime inside the 20 were very important in causing UNI to have poor field position on several drives. I think Donahue is quietly moving himself up the ladder for all-time great Iowa punters. Certainly he has a long way to go to catch Reggie Roby, but he is making a case for being named in the same sentence as Jason Baker.


Those are some of my thoughts on the UNI game. I still think this team has a lot of potential. As usual, I think it will be a typical Kirk Ferentz team that continues to improve each week of the season. The game this weekend will serve as an obvious metric as to how good this team might be this season. The early forecast calls for rain. I think that rainy conditions would favor Iowa. I am still unsure on my prediction, but stay tuned for it later this week.
Go Hawks!

Friday, September 4, 2009

UNI Predictions

As I have been telling people all week, the best time of the year is finally upon us. The 120th season of Iowa Hawkeye football kicks off this Saturday at 11:05 as the Hawkeyes host the Northern Iowa Panthers. The beginning of the season and everything leading up to it has been analyzed three times over, so it is certainly a relief to begin to talk about actual games rather than the speculation coming out of Ft. Kenyon Practice Facility and Ft. Kinnick.

Here are the five things I would like to see on Saturday:

One Series, One Score­- Although the Hawks were able to do this last season many a time, I would love for the offense to score on their first possession with a solid eight to ten play drive. Speaking of which, do you think Iowa will take the ball if they win the toss? (Please note the sarcasm)

Turkey­- Did you know that the last time an Iowa quarterback threw for 300 yards was in 2007? Jake Christensen threw for 308 yards in a 38-20 loss to Indiana on September 28, 2007. Given the inexperience of UNI’s secondary, I fully expect Ricky Stanzi to eclipse the 300 yard mark on Saturday. Speaking of the Hoosiers, is there a more annoying “ditty” than the one the IU Marching Band plays after a first down? It is almost (emphasis on almost) as bad as “That’s good for another Golden Gopher….first down.” Sorry, I had to get my Gopher jab in there.

Takeaways- Iowa finished the 2008 season with 23 interceptions, which was good enough for fourth nationally. The turnover margin of +8 was good enough for third in the Big Ten and 22nd nationally. The defense’s ability to continue this trend will be instrumental in once again establishing the Iowa defense as one of the best in the country.

Running Game- RRBC (Running Back by Committee) begins on Saturday. Just like every other Iowa fan, I am very curious to see what Paki O’Meara, Adam Robinson, and Brandon Wegher can do. Regardless of their numbers and production, the two most important goals for them on Saturday should be: 1. Ball Security 2. Pick up Blitzes.

Dominance on the D-Line- I have said it before and I will say it again. This year’s defensive line has the potential to be scary good. I fully expect Broderick Binns and Adrian Clayborn to wreak havoc in the UNI backfield all day on Saturday.

Prediction:
Despite the fact that UNI is one of the best D-1AA (sorry, FCS) teams in the country, they lack the depth necessary to compete for four quarters with most D-1 (BCS) teams, let alone a Top 25 ranked team. I think the Iowa offense will have its usual slow start with some small mental mistakes (e.g. false starts, missed assignments); however, the defense will prevent UNI from doing much of anything on offense. After a series or two, the offense will start to click and will not look back from that point. The defense absolutely smothers the Panthers and frustrates Patrick Grace all day. Thus, although the Panthers may keep it close for a quarter or two, the Hawks will ultimately begin to pull away as the steady dose of running behind the “Big Hog Mollies” will wear down the UNI defense.

Final Score: Iowa 38 UNI 10
Pick to Click: Tony Moeaki

Sunday, August 30, 2009

Leading up to the Northern Iowa Game

After the three weeks of camp, it appears that we have learned some things about this year’s team, but some other parts appear to still be works in progress. Below are the some of my thoughts on the developments that have occurred since the start of camp.

Corner Pocket- Jordan Bernstine’s injury hurts on multiple fronts. He showed great progress last year when he was inserted in nickel coverage and certainly was on the fast track to the starting position going into camp. The potential athleticism that Iowa would have had at the cornerback position with Bernstine and Spievey would arguably have been the most athletic corner duo in Iowa football history. Alas, a younger player will have to follow the Iowa mantra of “Next Man In.” Shaun Prater would have had the inside track to the position, but he is suspended for the first two games of the year as a result of a DUI arrest. The first two-deep of the season has Greg Castillo and Willie Lowe as the co-starters at the LC position. Although I think Prater will eventually win the job, I think it will be very important for both Castillo and Lowe to see some significant reps, especially against Iowa State.

Backfield- Where to begin, where to begin. It appears as though Paki O’Meara and Adam Robinson will see the brunt of the reps against UNI. Jewel Hampton was not listed on the two-deep nor was Jeff Brinson anywhere to be found. Hampton’s status appears to be in limbo, and if I had to venture a guess, I would bet that Hampton takes a redshirt this season, but we will have to see. Brinson evidently had some ankle problems during practice, which presumably hampered his ability to have enough repetitions to lead to a spot on the two-deep. Nonetheless, I think he still sees the field for quality minutes against UNI. Either way, for better or worse, this year’s running back position appears to be headed toward RBBC (Running Back by Committee).

End of the Line- I am absolutely giddy of the thought of a Clayborn/Ballard/Klug/Binns defensive line. Do not get me wrong, I think this team will miss Matt Kroul and Mitch King but, as a unit, this year’s defensive line could be even better than last year.

Return Game­- Amari Spievey is listed as the punt returner and he will share the kickoff return duties with Paki O’Meara. This is certainly an area where Iowa can improve in 2009. Last year, Iowa averaged a serviceable 20.46 yards a return, which is certainly acceptable, but probably not where the coaching staff wants.

Specialists- Trent Mossbrucker and Daniel Murray are listed as the co-placekickers. I hope that Mossbrucker is used as the extra-point specialist while Murray is given the reigns to the field goal kicker position (for a lack of a better term). At a scrimmage several weeks ago, Murray was 12 of 13, including a salty 4/4 from 50 yards or more while Mossbrucker was 11 of 13 and 3 of 4 from 50 yards or more. Either way you cut it, it is very pleasing to know that the Hawks have two great kickers for the next few years.

O-Line Shuffle- The offensive line will undergo a musical chair routine the first three weeks of the season. The starting line for the UNI game will be (from left to right): Bulaga, Gettis, Eubanks, Doering, Richardson. However, if I were to venture a guess for the starting line against Arizona (3d game of the season), it will be: Bulaga, Vandervelde, Eubanks, Richarson, Calloway. I really hope that both Dan Doering and Dace Richardson are able to exorcise their injury demons and have healthy and productive senior seasons given all of the adversity they have been through during their college careers. I am very curious to see what the starting offensive line will be around the middle of the season.

“Game Manager”- All of the pundits have been dismissing the notion of Ricky Stanzi as a “game manager.” While I think Stanzi will take a step forward this year and be the offensive leader of the team, if he is a “game manager” who does not make mental mistakes or throw interceptions, then I am all for having a “Game Manager” at the helm of the offense.

Targets- Marvin McNutt was listed as one of the starting receivers heading into camp and he retained that position heading out of camp, while Trey Stross is listed as the starter on the other side. Derrell Johnson-Koulianos is listed behind McNutt, but as many three and four receiver sets as Iowa runs, the fact that DJK is listed as number two is somewhat of a non-event in my opinion. If anything, I think that it shows McNutt is a legitimate receiving threat. Everyone knows how talented DJK is, thus having three solid sure-handed receivers is an absolute plus. Stross is due for a breakout year, as there is no question that he has exceptional hands and speed, for him it is a question of staying healthy. Speaking of health, if Tony Moeaki can avoid the small injury bug that has plagued him for the past three years, then the duo of Moeaki and Allen Reisner has the potential to be a formidable pair of TEs for opponents to deal with this season. When one looks at the injuries that Moeaki has suffered during his Iowa career, it is readily apparent that he has been unlucky. I do not buy into someone being deemed “injury prone.” Kirk Ferentz has always commented on how talented and skilled Moeaki is at his position, here is hoping for Moeaki’s chance to show the entire nation what Ferentz and Co. have seen in practice for the past three years.

Well that does it for this installment. I will be posting sometime during the week with my thoughts about the UNI game and a prediction.

Go Hawks!

Friday, August 7, 2009

Camp Curiousities

Things I Want to Hear From Camp

It is almost upon us—the beginning of fall camp. The beginning of camp means the beginning of the season. The beginning of season means 12 Saturdays of Iowa football. Iowa football means pure happiness. Ok, you get my point.

I am very curious to hear what Coach Ferentz has to say at Media Day this Friday. Typically, Coach Ferentz will announce any changes to the depth chart, NCAA Clearinghouse casualties, and any new information that has happened since Big Ten Media Day, which I think will be minimal.

Camp brings an opportunity for the football team to spend close to three weeks of quality time eating, breathing, sleeping, and living football together as a team. It also gives several players the opportunity to win a starting job outright and it gives each unit of the team the chance to work toward the ultimate goal of working in unison on the field.

I am anxious to see how the following developments and position battles play out over the course of the next month leading up to the opener against Northern Iowa on September 5th.

· Backup Quarterback. Although it appears as though James Vandenberg has the upper hand coming out of spring practice, I certainly think John Wienke will be given every chance to earn the co-backup spot with Vandenberg. Say what you will about the Jake Christensen era at Iowa, but it was certainly comforting knowing that he had been under center when the bullets were flying. I would really like one or both of the current backups to make significant strides in their game in order to provide that same level of comfort this year.

· Corner Pocket. Amari Speivey is going to be 1st Team All Big Ten this year, mark my words. The biggest question is who will start at the other corner. I really hope that Jordan Bernstine receives the number of reps in camp that he needs in order to solidify himself as a starter. He obviously has a ton of natural athletic ability and showed some flashes of good tackling technique during spot duty in nickel situations last year. Shaun Prater and Willie Lowe are also in the mix, although Prater will have somewhat of an uphill battle to fight following his two game suspension for a DUI arrest.

· Stuck in the Middle With You. Ask me what player from last year’s team I wish could return? Mitch King? No. Matt Kroul? No. Andy Brodell? No. Rob Bruggeman was, in my opinion, the most important player from last year’s team. A common theme of successful Coach Ferentz teams are a solid, veteran center. Bruce Nelson called the shots in 2002. Brian Ferentz in 2004 and Rob Bruggeman last year. Mike Elgin was one heck of center as well. With Julian Vandervelde’s injury, I do not know who will come out of this race. Perhaps it will be Josh Koeppel, like Bruggeman, a walk-on from Iowa City. I also think that James Ferentz will make a strong case to receive playing time. If, and that is a big if, we can find a solid center, there is no doubt that our offensive line is one of the best in the Big Ten and maybe top five in the country.

· Two of Us. Because all of the national pundits and observers talk about it, I guess I will too. Who is going to replace the King and Kroul duo? Will Ballard and Clayborn be moving in at all? Mike Daniels, Karl Klug and Broderick Binns are all going to platoon and do a fine job. Obviously, their success will determine much of the team’s success. Strong defensive line play is a hallmark of Norm Parker’s best defenses and this year’s line has the possibility to shape up to be a pretty solid group. The more space and gaps that the defensive tackles eat up means more room for Angerer, Hunter, and Edds to go hunting for running backs and quarterbacks.

· Return to Sender. Despite Coach Ferentz’s comments about Jewel Hampton returning kicks this year, I truly hope that Brandon Wegher and others impressive the coaching staff enough to earn the job so that Hampton does not have to return kicks. It would be a shame to have Hampton injured during kick return duty.

Well that is it for now. My next post will be during the next week or so after Media Day and following a week or so of practice.

Go Hawks!

Monday, August 3, 2009

Aftermath of Big Ten Media Day

Pat Harty of the Iowa City Press Citizen wrote an article leading up to the Big Ten Media Day questioning whether the two-day ordeal is even worth the trouble anymore. After reading all of the news coverage in the wake of it, I tend to agree that it does not provide much value in terms of information. All of the coaches say how excited they are about the upcoming season and they are all looking forward to see which players developed the most during the summer. Nonetheless, I love it because it means that camp is right around the corner and that the season is almost upon us. Here are some of my thoughts from in the wake of Media Day.

-One Opportunity Is All It Takes. It is nice to hear that Tony Moeaki still has a positive attitude going into the season. If there is any justice in the world of college football, Moeaki should have an injury-free season. We have all seen during sporadic moments of his ability the past few seasons. Who can forget his 8 catch, 112 yard, 3 TD performance against Syracuse in 2007? One can just tell that he oozes athletic ability and if (IF) he remains healthy, I think he certainly has a good chance at 1st team All Big 10 in a league that boasts the likes of Garrett Graham (WI), Charlie Gantt (MSU), and Michael Hoomanawanui (Ill). Likewise, Moeaki has NFL talent written all over him and as long as he has a productive year, I think he has the potential to be a 3rd round draft pick.

-Senior Leadership. AJ Edds will likely not be remembered in the same breath as other Ferentz-era linebackers like Abdul Hodge and Chad Greenway, but his steady contributions for the past three years have been just that, steady and consistent. After listening to him speak, it is easy to understand why he was named to the Team Leadership Group for three consecutive years. A model example of a student-athlete (Academic All-Big Ten the past two years), Edds embodies what it means to be a Hawkeye and will certainly be missed next year, but let us all hope for another solid season out of him.

-Future MMA Fighter. Pat Angerer will pick up this year where Mitch King left off. That is to say that I think Angerer will be the emotional leader of this year’s defense. From almost quitting the sport to leading the team in tackles and interceptions (well, tied at five with Tyler Sash), Angerer proved last year that he is as solid as they come at MLB in the Big Ten. The Angerer, Edds, and Hunter trio will certainly be exciting to watch this year. As long as the young interior defensive line occupies space and bodies, the Iowa linebacker corps should be able to roam freely and once again establish the Iowa defense as one of the best run defenses in the country.

Other Thoughts from Big Ten Media Day

-Running the Mouth. Why on earth is Arrelious Benn running his mouth about how much he hates Iowa? HawkeyeNation.com’s Rob Howe had the opportunity to interview Benn here and quoted him as saying “Yeah, I seriously dislike Iowa.” Do not get me wrong, Benn is without a doubt a future NFL receiver, but come on, the guy has had five, repeat five, touchdowns in his first two seasons at Illinois. It is obvious that Benn is still upset about his ranked Illini squad got beat in Iowa City two years ago by a very mediocre Iowa team. It is really too bad that Illinois is off the schedule this year because you know that things like these always seem to come back to bite the speaker in the you know what.

-Classy. Although it has been hard to swallow Iowa losing to Northwestern twice in the past three years, is there a classier or better coaching prospect in the country than Pat Fitzgerald?

-Expansion Talk. Can everyone agree on the fact that the Big Ten should not expand, under any circumstances, until Notre Dame agrees to join the conference? This incessant talk about Missouri, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, etc. gets old and will never happen, especially as long as Jim Delany is at the helm.

-Joe Pa. I hope that ESPN compiles a hit parade of Joe Paterno’s press conference comments. In case you missed it, Paterno was asked about Twitter at Big Ten Media Day and said “What do you guys call those things? Tweedle-do? Tweedle-dee? I haven’t the slightest idea what you’re looking at?” Here is hoping that Paterno is able to coach as long as he wants.

Final Thoughts

-My next blog post will be lengthier and will be a summary of various items heading into camp, especially as to the various position battles that will be taking place during camp.

-HawkeyeSports.com now has the incoming freshmen listed on the roster along with their number. Here is a link to the entire roster. Some ones of note:
Keenan Davis #6 WR (Did anyone else have the same reaction I did when I saw this number? I am not going out on a limb here, but this guy will get significant playing time this year.)

Brandon Wegher # 3 RB/ATH (Our starting KR)

Jordan Cotton #23 WR

Micah Hyde #18 DB (My pick for the sleeper of the class)

Marty Hopkins #35 DL

Brad Rogers #38 RB (May see some playing time due to the uncertainty with Jewel)

Dakota Getz # 80 TE

That does it for the first of many posts during the year. Please feel free, if possible, to provide comments. Is it September 5th yet?

Go Hawks!