I have not felt good about this game since before the 2005 game, and we all know that outcome. To add insult to injury, there are rumors going around the Hawkeye Nation that Bryan Bulaga has not practiced this week and may not play on Saturday. The topic first surfaced on Thursday during a chat with all of the CR Gazette beat writers. Marc Morehouse spilled the beans that Bulaga has not practiced this week. From that point, the message boards have been running rampant with speculation. Ken Miller of 1460 KXNO in Des Moines stated during the Matt & Miller show that he has it from several sources that Bulaga is in fact out for Saturday. I guess the only thing all of us can do is wait and see.
Offensive Keys: There is no other way to put it than simply stating that the Iowa offense has to improve from their performance last week against UNI. However, unlike the UNI game, I think it will be important for the offense to set-up the run through the pass. My guess is that the Iowa State defense will crowd the box as if to say, “Come on, Ricky Stanzi, show me what you got.” I would guess that Ken O’Keefe will have Stanzi throwing the ball on the run quite often, either through a roll-out or the classic, fake-stretch play waggle. Tony Moeaki will play a huge role if the Iowa offense has any type of success. I will be curious to see what Adam Robinson can do this week in a hostile environment. Regardless of how they do it, the Iowa offense must win the time of possession battle on Saturday. A failure to do so will result in a tired defense going up against a no-huddle, spread offense for an entire day, which equals a recipe for disaster.
Defensive Keys: I have had visions all week of Austin Arnaud having three step drops and hitting his receivers over the middle for 5-7 yard routes all day long. Nonetheless, it is hard to overlook the fact that Iowa State has not scored a touchdown against Iowa since 2006. Iowa State also has not won against a BCS opponent since September 6, 2008 in a home game against Kent State, so there is some optimism to think that Iowa’s defense is up to the challenge. Nonetheless, the stories about Tom Herman’s no-huddle offense have me worried. It was evident last week that the defensive line was worn down by the fourth quarter, so it is scary to think about what kind of shape they may be in against Iowa State late in the game. The key for the Iowa defense will be to cause disruption in the Iowa State backfield with the front four. Despite what many people think, Norm Parker actually did call some blitzes last week, but no one thinks that he did because none of the players executed by sacking Pat Grace. However, if Iowa’s front four can cause problems for Arnaud, then I think things will go well for the Hawks on defense. Either way, I think that you will see Norm utilize a nickel back during passing situations.
Like any game, the team that does not turn the ball over or shoot itself in the foot by getting penalized, usually has the advantage. Ever since Dan McCarney reinvigorated this rivalry during his tenure, this game has worried me. For some reason, Iowa always tends to make mental mistakes when they play in Ames, including penalties, turnovers, and just all-around poor play. If Bulaga does not play, I think that the offensive line will again struggle to work as a unit. I also think that Iowa State’s offense will move the ball up and down the field, but will likely have to settle for field goal attempts more often than not. The offense will likely sputter at times and have problems being able to sustain long, clock-eating drives. Add the fact that the home team has won this game the last five years and things begin to look bleak. My prediction is based on the fact that it goes against every fiber of my being to pick Iowa State to win. Despite my prediction, I am not going to be surprised one bit if Iowa State wins. Nonetheless, I will be up at 7:10 in the morning to get in line at The Other Place to cheer loudly for the Hawks with my fellow Kansas City Hawkeye fans.
Prediction: Iowa 17 Iowa State 13
Pick to Click: Pat Angerer
Go Hawks!
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Great blog A-Train. I agree with your comments about IA State being able to move the ball, but the classic "Bend but dont break" Hawkeye D will hold them to field goals. My pick to click is Moeaki. I wasn't impressed with Iowa's run game last week, and I think if the offense is going to have any success, it needs to be through the pass game...at least initially.
ReplyDeletePrediction - Iowa 20 Iowa State 13
Great post. Best one yet.
ReplyDeleteVegas is saying -6 with 47 total. Iowa State is 5-0 against the spread against Iowa and, with the rain and the statistics you gave above, there is no way the total reaches 47.
Prediction: Iowa 20 Iowa State 16
Pick to Click: Marvin McNutt
Defense bends all day but only breaks once in the red zone. Stanzi stumbles out of the blocks as he continues to stare down Moeaki on 3rd and long. This frees up more targets to our WR's and McNutt has a big day. I'll also be on the lookout for a few deep targets to Paul Chaney Jr. but ISU's big, physical backs break up the plays.
Great blog Trainer.
ReplyDeleteThe point I agree with you most on - turnover margin. If we are going to win this game, Stanzi (and the rest of the offense) needs to play smart football. It does not take many points to beat a team like Iowa State, especially with our defense. That being said, I think are defense needs to step up this week and create some points off turnovers. Iowa State is executing their no huddle offense for only the second time this season, under a new coach, against one of the nations top defenses (supposedly). As much as Iowa State spreads the field on offense, they also run the ball quite a bit (33 rushes between Arnaud/Robinson). Angerer and the crew up front will have their hands full and pile up numerous tackles, but my pick to click is Amari Spievey.
Iowa wins a close one...24-17.