It is finally here—the opening of the Big Ten conference season and the beginning of what appears to be a competitive race. The Hawkeyes open up the conference season on the road (weird, given that the Hawkeyes are on the road for the conference opener for the 8th time in Ferentz’s eleven years at Iowa). This game has been on the minds of Penn State players since last year’s loss in Iowa City. However, like I wrote in my last post, I think the “revenge” factor is a bunch of overblown hype that has little to no bearing on the game. Nevertheless, the 100,000+ in Beaver Stadium will be ready to roll following a full day of imbibing in adult beverages. Without a doubt, this game will play a large role in shaping the Big Ten title race. Here are my thoughts leading up to the game.
Stanzi Show. It is not rocket science or a profound thought, but in order for Iowa to have a chance on Saturday, Ricky Stanzi must play like 2d half Ricky during Saturday’s first half. I noted Stanzi’s completion percentage differential between the first half and second half. If Stanzi can minimize mistakes and manage the game so that Iowa is able to sustain long drives, then the Hawks will have a chance to stay in the game.
Special, Special Teams. Ryan Donahue has turned into an absolute weapon for the Hawkeyes with his ability to pin opponents back near their goal line and have an unbelievably long hang time giving his teammates the opportunity to get down the field to tackle the returner. Through three games, Donahue has had four punts returned for a total of five yards. Yes, you read that right. Five. Penn State graduated their star kicker Kevin Kelly and have had problems in various areas of special teams. Last week against Temple, Penn State lost an onsides kick and kicker Colin Wagner is an unimpressive 2 of 4 on the season. The field position battle will be crucial in this game, and Iowa certainly has the advantage thanks to the leg of Donahue.
Six Seconds of Hell. The new rallying cry of Norm Parker’s defense became public last weekend after the Arizona game. The Iowa defense will have to continue their steady rise to becoming one of the best defenses in the country this Saturday. Yes, Penn State presents a significant challenge with Daryll Clark and Evan Royster in the backfield. Clark leads the Big 10 in yards per game and touchdowns, while Royster is turning in another impressive season, as Penn State is 7-0, including last year, when Royster runs for over 100 yards. Thus, Iowa will certainly have its hands full trying to contain those two. Keep in mind, however, that Penn State lost three All Big 10 offensive linemen from last year, and that all-time great PSU receivers Jordan Norwood, Derrick Williams, and Deon Butler are gone. So, while Penn State presents significant challenges on the offensive side of the ball, they are not the same Penn State of last season, and Iowa’s defense has certainly proved that it is capable of giving its opponent “six seconds of hell.”
Come to Penn State. Kirk Ferentz has Joe Paterno’s number when it comes to playing Joe Pa in State College as Iowa won in 2000, 2002, and 2004. Likewise, the Big Ten Network mentioned during one of their shows that Ferentz has a better winning percentage against Penn State than all of the other active coaches in the Big Ten combined, other than Jim Tressel. Penn State’s pro-style offense fits nicely into Iowa’s 4-3 base defense and Norm Parker always seems to make adjustments at halftime that shut down opponents. Do not take this as a slight to Joe Pa in any manner, but I think that Iowa has the advantage when it comes to coaching in this game.
At the beginning of the year, I initially marked this game as a loss. Regardless of the outcome last year, it is always difficult to go into Happy Valley and come away with a win. Up until about thirty seconds ago, I was going to pick Penn State to win in a close one, but I think I have convinced myself otherwise. Given Penn State’s personnel losses and the fact that they have played a ridiculously easy non-conference schedule of Akron, Syracuse, and Temple, and the fact that Iowa always seems to have an answer to Penn State’s offense, I am going to pick the Hawks. If my prediction comes to fruition, it could be the beginning of a very special season.
Prediction: Iowa 20 Penn State 17
Pick to Click: Ricky Stanzi
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Should be a tight one that, in my humble opinion, will hinge on a few key factors:
ReplyDelete1. 3rd down conversions - Our running game will be key so we can avoid 3rd and long. PSU is an talented, albeit young, defense that will be opportunistic. It is critical that Stanzi makes good decisions on 3rd down as he will be facing thunderous crowd noise and atmosphere. This game will be a field position battle and, at the risk of sounding moronic, moving the chains may be a secondary goal to hanging onto the ball on 3rd down. I expect a few Draw calls from KOK, especially in the first half.
2. Field goals. Andrew touched on the NFL style play on both sides for both teams and I think this game is going to be decided by a 3 point margin like a good NFL game should. Murray could be the hero yet again Saturday.
3. Bend-don't-break. Penn State is fairly futile in the red zone already this year. The Hawks will give up yards...Penn State is just too talented to not move the ball, especially in the running game. When they do get in the red-zone, I like the Hawks chances of forcing a field goal with their "bend-don't break" mentality. Penn state is currently 88th in the nation in converting red zone appearances into a score, averaging 4.3 points vs. the national average of 4.6. By the way, Iowa's offense is 10th in the nation in pts/appearance.
Crystal Ball:
The first half will be a stalemate of shifting possessions back and forth in the middle of the field. KOK calls a conservative game in the 1st half as a result of the crowd noise and Stanzi's propensity to start slow.
The defense gives PSU all it can handle and they are forced to settle for field goal attempts most of the day. Iowa's offense gets a couple cracks at the red zone due to field position given by the defense and Donahue. Two Iowa touchdowns will win it Saturday as PSU has difficulty scoring a TD all day. One will come as a result of special teams and the other touchdown will prove to be the difference when Stanzi hooks up with Chaney Jr. on a big play.
Prediction: Iowa 23 Penn State 16
Pick to Click: Adrian Clayborn
ReplyDeleteI'll give some quick input on this one as I am scrambling to get out of the office and get my mind right.
ReplyDeleteHaven't seen or done much analysis on Penn State this year. I know that they have played some garbage competition, have some studs at QB and RB, weak/young at receiver, young secondary, etc. That being said, you know they have talent at every position - you don't get a #5 rank in the country without it. However, rankings this early in the season are based solely on assumptions (don't even get me started on how Iowa can be ranked preseason, go 3-0, and not be ranked).
Anyways, continuing on Train and Chuck's analysis, defense and special teams will keep us in the game in this hostile environment. We need to play smart on offense, develop some sort of running game early, and then expose their secondary in the 2nd half. When it comes down to it, Ricky needs to come ready to play and make smart decisions when he throws down field.
I really like the way we match up against these guys. Defense will need to create some turnovers and get to Clark early.
I have to say it, I like the Hawks in this matchup.
Hawks 24 Penn State 20.
Pick to click: Pat Angerer (although I very much like that Clayborn P2C Chuck).
I'm ready to see some Hawkeye Magic in the Valley...GO HAWKS!