Michigan Predictions

Despite the Big Ten season starting two weeks ago, it seems as though Iowa starts its 2010 Big Ten campaign this Saturday in Ann Arbor against an opponent that has one of the most exciting players in college football. This game is also the beginning of a three game stretch in which Iowa can show that it deserves to be a top ten team nationally and is a legitimate contender to win the Big Ten championship. Here are my thoughts.

Shoelace. I might as well start off discussing this game with the topic that has dominated every conversation leading up to this game. Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson has done things this year that no other player in college football history has ever done. He has thrown for more than 200 yards and rushed for more than 200 yards twice this year, which is more than any other player in college football history. Prior to his three interception performance last week against Michigan State, Robinson was beating teams not only with his legs but his arm. However, the Spartans exposed a weakness that when Michigan is playing from behind and Robinson is forced to throw the ball he tends to make bad decisions in reading the coverage, which led to the three interceptions last week. Robinson will get his yards but, as is often the case with a great offense against the Iowa defense under a Kirk Ferentz, if the Iowa defense can clamp down in the red zone against Michigan and force field goal attempts, the defense will have done its job. Robinson was limited to 86 yards last week against a Michigan State rush defense that ranks 25th in the country against the run allowing 111 yards on the ground. Michigan’s prior opponents have allowed an average of 178 yards on the ground, which would be good enough for 90th in the country. Iowa’s defense against the run is second in the country allowing only 63.2 yards per game. While Iowa’s opponents have not exactly been world beaters, the statistic is impressive nonetheless. If the Iowa defense can find a way to make Robinson one-dimensional, they will certainly give the offense an opportunity to put points on the board.

Pass Attack. While the Michigan offense has been impressive this year, the Michigan defense has been a complete and utter disappointment. Michigan ranks 112th in the country in total defense having given up an average of 450 yards per game. If Iowa can go turnover free or win the turnover battle, the Iowa offense should be able to move the ball on a consistent basis. Iowa’s best defense could be the Iowa offense remaining on the field in order to keep the ball out of the hands of Robinson. I expect Iowa to establish the pass in order to set up the run to draw out the clock especially given the fact that Iowa is limited at the running back position. In his press conference this week, Kirk Ferentz seemed to indicate that, barring injury, Adam Robinson will be the only person to carry the ball for the Hawkeyes. While Marcus Coker is talented, I do not blame the coaching staff for being nervous about having a true freshman hanging on to the ball and, more importantly, pick up blitzes to protect fifth-year starting quarterback Ricky Stanzi. This game is an opportunity for Stanzi to shine and be a leader for this team in what will be a typical hostile Big Ten crowd. Look for offensive coordinator Ken O’Keefe to challenge the young Michigan secondary by throwing the ball downfield in an effort to limit the number of carries by Adam Robinson.

Linebackers. While it is probably a debate more fitting for those more well-versed in defense, I tend to think that the key to defending a mobile quarterback is a fast and veteran linebacker corps. Jeremiha Hunter is the sole returning starter of the Iowa linebackers, and although Tyler Nielsen has looked very athletic in the first five games, he has simply not had the repetitions in a game setting to react instinctively rather than thinking then acting. Hunter and Nielsen will both have to be at their best, as the middle linebacker position is a question mark entering the game. Jeff Tarpinian is questionable after a stinger he suffered in practice before the Penn State game. Troy Johnson, a fifth-year senior will likely start but, like Nielsen, does not have significant game experience at middle linebacker despite winning Big Ten player of the week honors against Minnesota last season while filling in for Hunter. Behind Johnson is true freshman James Morris. The lingering image in my mind is one of Robinson getting past the Iowa defensive line and beat the Iowa linebackers to the outside. Granted, I hope that I am wrong and that if Robinson does get to the second level, the Iowa secondary can limit the big gains, but I am still concerned about the linebackers’ ability to contain Robinson.

End Play. Iowa’s domination of Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl has been brought up several times this week given the run-oriented nature of Georgia Tech and Michigan. Even though there are significant differences between the two offenses, the principles of what is required by the defensive line is the same, which is to say that Iowa’s defensive line will have to play disciplined gap control and cannot break contain on the ends. If Adrian Clayborn, Broderick Binns, and Christian Ballard in their defensive end positions can funnel Robinson and the Michigan ground game to the middle where there is help from the defensive tackles and the linebackers, Iowa should be able to have the same success as Michigan State against Michigan’s ground game. On the other hand, over-aggressive end play that causes them to get up field too quickly will give Robinson gaping holes to run through to get to the outside.

For the past several weeks I have been saying before each game that the particular game would tell us more about Iowa. Five games into the season I am still unsure about this team and what they are capable of doing this season. Iowa State, Arizona and Penn State have all had their disappointments this season and make Iowa’s wins against them seem insignificant. Without a doubt, however, the next three games will certainly show Iowa fans what type of team they have this year. If you remember, I picked this game as one in which Iowa would lose and that was before knowing that Robinson would start at quarterback for Michigan or knowing that he would be the Heisman contender that he has been thus far this year. While I think the Iowa defense and offense are capable of slowing down the Michigan offense and scoring points against a porous Michigan defense, I have seen the Iowa routine against a mobile quarterback before and my memories of those games are not good ones. Call me crazy and call me someone who will gladly eat crow on Sunday, but I am sticking with my prediction at the beginning of the year.

Prediction: Iowa 24 Michigan 28

Pick to Click: Ricky Stanzi