Michigan State Predictions

It is no big stretch to say that Iowa’s game this Saturday will define its season. After a heart-wrenching loss last week against Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes enter the Michigan State with a glimmer of hope that a co-Big Ten championship is still possible. Here are my thoughts.

Run Defense. The past two weeks have been uncharacteristic for the Iowa defense as they have not been able to, as Norm Parker is fond of saying, “put out the fire.” Part of that has been due to an ever shifting corps of linebackers that may be different again this Saturday with Jeff Tarpinian still questionable and Jeremiha Hunter also questionable to play. At the beginning of the year, Kirk Ferentz hinted to the fact that given the option he would prefer a veteran defensive line over a veteran group of linebackers. While Iowa’s linebackers have played well this year, it is clear that Iowa misses the run defense play of Pat Angerer and AJ Edds. James Morris, who will undoubtedly be a great player some day, just does not have the experience that is required of a linebacker to react in a split second rather than think then act within that limited time frame. Iowa’s front seven will once again be challenged on Saturday against the three-headed running attack of Michigan State. Edwin Baker, Larry Caper, and Le’Veon Bell have combined to lead the Spartans to an average of 193.5 yards per game on the ground. The Iowa defensive line will have a much easier task this week against the Michigan State offensive line than against the monstrous Wisconsin offensive line, as Michigan State’s size up front is not as daunting and is not as experienced.

Small Matters. In Iowa’s losses against Arizona and Wisconsin, the small mistakes compounded and led to big plays for the opponents, ultimately leading to those two losses. While no team can play a perfect game, minimizing mistakes and not allowing an opponent to capitalize on those mistakes are critical in order for a team to walk away with a victory. Unlike last year when Iowa was able to cause its opponents to make mistakes and capitalize on those mistakes, the tables have seemed to turn. Iowa has uncharacteristically shot itself in the foot and those small mistakes were exploited by Arizona and Wisconsin. Granted the season is a little more than half way over, which leads me to believe that there is time for the Iowa players to learn from their mistakes over the prior seven games. This Saturday is another big litmus test to see how they have learned from those mistakes.

Play-Action. After another impressive performance by Adam Robinson, Michigan State will have to respect the run allowing Ricky Stanzi to attack the Spartan defense who will not be able to sell out against the run or the pass. By continuing to establish the run, Iowa can rely on the play-action pass, which Stanzi does such a great job of selling to make defenders think run first. All-American linebacker Greg Jones will be all over the place on Saturday both in the running game and the passing game. Jones is fifth in the Big Ten in tackles and has that uncanny sixth sense for anticipating a play and knowing where to go to be in a position to make a play. His cohort, Eric Gordon, is also a very talented linebacker who can make plays in space. Michigan State’s secondary, however, is vulnerable, ranking seventh in the Big Ten in passing defense giving up 213.5 yards per game. The Spartan secondary has also been depleted the past few weeks with senior cornerback Chris L. Rucker in jail for violating his probation for last year’s assault involving several other members of the football by being charged for drunken driving on October 10. Rucker was released from jail on Thursday and, curiously, was reinstated upon his release by Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio for this Saturday’s game. Rucker was the cornerback in last year’s game who received the pass interference call that kept the Iowa drive alive and was the cornerback who got beat by Marvin McNutt on the final play of the game when “7 got 6.” With Rucker back, Michigan State’s secondary improves dramatically and presents an additional challenge for which Iowa must prepare.

Spartan Attack. In addition to the rushing attack that Michigan State presents, quarterback Kirk Cousins is the best quarterback Iowa will play against this year with Arizona quarterback Nick Foles a close second. Cousins is one of the most efficient passers in the nation and has the patience necessary to beat Iowa with short six-seven yard passes the entire game. Cousins’ targets include Mark Dell, B.J. Cunningham, Keshawn Martin, and tight end Charlie Gantt who are all quality receivers that can make the big plays when necessary. Against an Iowa secondary that was picked apart by Scott Tolzien last week, Michigan State has to be licking its chops thinking about its possibilities.

Michigan State’s first undefeated season since 1966 is almost complete given that their remaining schedule consists of a home games against Minnesota and Purdue and a road contests at Penn State. While it is one of the easiest roads to a Big Ten championship in recent history, Sparty still must clear the final hurdle of winning at Kinnick Stadium. The last three games between the two schools have gone down to the wire and I expect nothing less this time around. Michigan State is playing with the confidence that it can win any game against any opponent. The Spartans are playing with that same level of confidence that the Hawkeyes exhibited last year when the Hawkeyes were invincible until Stanzi went down against Northwestern. As has been the case all season long, this game will come down to what team makes more mistakes and has the better special teams. Based on those two indicators, it would seem as though Iowa should lose the game; however, I think this game marks when Iowa turns its season around.

Prediction: Iowa 24 Michigan State 21

Pick to Click: Christian Ballard