Wisconsin Predictions

The first game of Iowa’s remaining three home games will take Iowa fans and players back to an era of football that is seldom seen in today’s world of spread offenses and defenses that cannot hold teams under 35 points. Every year before this matchup media members discuss the similarities between the two programs and styles of play, all of which is true. It is unfortunate that the Iowa and Wisconsin game had to be the sacrificial lamb of Big Ten conference re-alignment, but everyone knew going into the process that at least one annual matchups would be lost. Nevertheless, the hype leading up to this game is almost as good as the buildup prior to the 2004 Iowa and Wisconsin game that ended up being for the Big Ten championship. Here are my thoughts.


Individual Matchup. Adrian Clayborn has been an absolutely disruptive force this year despite the statistics to support his tremendous play. As observant fans are aware, Clayborn has been double and, sometimes, triple teamed most of the season. Saturday, however, will present a different challenge for Clayborn when he faces Wisconsin left tackle Gabe Carimi. Clayborn and Carimi are both top NFL draft prospects who have battled against one another in the past two seasons. Clayborn got the best of an injured Carimi last year recording six tackles, two tackles for losses, and a sack. I am certainly interested in watching two top notch athletes going at each other for four quarters, but I am also curious to see how Clayborn plays against a scheme that will likely allow its offensive tackle to take on Clayborn without any support of a tight end or a running back. Those Iowa fans that have been clamoring for more statistics from Clayborn this season may just get their wish on Saturday against a quality opponent.

Passing Efficiency. Ricky Stanzi has quietly put together an outstanding season at the helm of the Iowa offense. Stanzi is third in the nation in passing efficiency with a quarterback rating of 180.49, which is incredible. Marc Morehouse of the Cedar Rapids Gazette wrote a great piece earlier this week on the time that Stanzi spent in the film room this summer and the time he spends in the film room during the season. That dedication is paying off for the Iowa offense and the Iowa fans that have been able to enjoy Stanzi’s production this season. Stanzi’s play on Saturday will again be critical, as I expect the coaching staff to attempt to establish the run to set up the play action. The Wisconsin pass defense is, however, salty against the pass giving up only 193 yards per game. Iowa’s offensive game plan may also change based on the weather, which may force both teams to rely more heavily on the running game than planned. Stanzi has the opportunity once again on the national stage to add to his already impressive season and increase his draft stock.

Coverage. Wisconsin kick returner David Gilreath started off last Saturday’s win against Ohio State with a bang when he returned the opening kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown. Iowa’s kickoff coverage unit has been much maligned this season and will need to continue its improvement in this area to prevent special teams plays that can mean the difference between winning and losing games against good competition. It has been interesting to see how the personnel of Iowa’s special teams units have changed since the beginning of the year as more and more defensive starters have found their way on kickoff and punt coverage. Likewise, several true freshman, including Don Shumpert who had his redshirt pulled last Saturday, have seen more time on special teams units this season. Regardless of personnel, Iowa’s special teams have to win their battles on Saturday, as the margin for error in the other facets of the game are very slim.

Wisconsin Air Attack. While everyone knows Wisconsin has a great running game with John Clay and James White behind a gigantic offensive line, I am not entirely sold on Scott Tolzien and the Wisconsin air attack. Wisconsin ranks 75th in the nation in passing offense averaging just over 201 yards per game. As a point of comparison, Iowa ranks 30th in the nation averaging 253 yards per game. What that tells me is that if Iowa is able to get a two score lead, Wisconsin is not built to play from behind with their passing offense. Tolzien will not only have to deal with what should be a raucous crowd, but he may also have to deal with the elements affecting his ability to throw. Although it is no guarantee or certainty that Iowa can build a lead, if they are able to, I think it will be difficult for Wisconsin’s offense to play catch up with their run-first mentality on offense.

As I mentioned earlier, the fact that the Heartland Trophy game was lost to Big Ten re-alignment is unfortunate, but it adds a tiny, yet additional element of motivation for this contest. For teams that are so identical, Iowa has seemingly had Wisconsin’s number the past decade winning four out of the last five at Kinnick Stadium. While a loss would not put Iowa out of the Big Ten race, it would put them in the position of relying on other teams to lose. Fortunately, Iowa has the opportunity to have its Big Ten destiny in its own hands for the remainder of the season. What is unfortunate is that weather may play a role in the game on Saturday, which I do not think benefits either team one way or the other. Regardless of what Mother Nature has in store for Saturday, Wisconsin is just one of those teams that Iowa plays well against under Kirk Ferentz and I do not see that changing this time.

Prediction: Iowa 20 Wisconsin 13

Pick to Click: Karl Klug