Indiana Predictions

After a treacherous two-game road trip that resulted in sitting in the driver’s seat of the Big 10 and moving into unchartered territory as far Iowa football history is concerned, the Iowa Hawkeyes come home for what appeared, at least at the beginning of the season, to be a welcomed two-game home stand. However, with the loss of Adam Robinson and Dace Richardson and a target the size of the state on their backs, the Hawkeyes will get the Indiana Hoosiers’ best shot. Here are my thoughts.

Running Back Situation. The entire Hawkeye Nation collectively became rightfully worried on Tuesday when it was announced at Kirk Ferentz’s press conference that Robinson would be out for the remainder of the year. Robinson has grown considerably in this season to become the fourth leading rusher in the Big Ten and a reliable back. Robinson has that knack to make a three yard gain become a five or six yard gain and, perhaps most importantly, secures the football. While Brandon Wegher will do a fine job, I am not sure that he is capable of being a 20-25 carry per game running back, especially given the fact that he bruised his ribs against Michigan State. Look, I know Paki O’Meara is probably not the best running back in Division I, but get ready for him to see some playing time. O’Meara must do two things on Saturday: secure the football and successfully execute his blocking assignments. If he does those two things, you will hear absolutely zero complaints from me about O’Meara’s performance on the field. Any yards he picks up while rushing or catching the ball out of the backfield is just gravy. Some people this week have been curious as to whether true freshmen Brad Rogers will have his redshirt taken off to give Iowa another option in the backfield. I have one qualm about that possibility. If there is even the slightest hesitance about his blocking ability, then I would be inclined to keep the redshirt on Rogers. The most important asset of this team at this point in the season is Ricky Stanzi. One missed block by Rogers that leads to a hit that takes out Stanzi would spell utter doom for this team. Granted, the coaches see Rogers in practice and know what he is capable of doing, so I am not stating that I think he is poor blocker; rather I am saying why there might be a good reason to keep the redshirt on for now. Also, if Rogers loses his redshirt, Iowa would have five scholarship sophomore running backs next season.

Offensive Sets. Say what you want, but I have been very impressed with Ken O’Keefe’s game plans and play calling this season. I am curious to see what O’Keefe has in mind this Saturday given the loss of Robinson. I think we will see several four and five receiver sets and a west coast passing attack to create high percentage pass attempts. While Indiana certainly has an experienced secondary with Austin Thomas, Nick Polk, and converted wide receiver Ray Fisher, I think we will see Iowa try to stretch the field similar to the first quarter of the Arkansas State game. On the other hand, maybe Indiana plays to stop the pass opening up the Iowa ground game. Either way, I think the Iowa offense has a breakout game in which we see backup quarterback James Vandenberg late in the fourth quarter.

Edge Matchups. The Kyle Calloway/Jammie Kirlew and Bryan Bulaga/Greg Middleton matchups are going to be exciting to watch, as both matchups pit NFL caliber players against one another. Kirlew leads the Big Ten in forced fumbles, while his counterpart, Middleton, wreaked havoc against the Hawkeyes two years ago with 2.5 sacks in a 38-20 Iowa win. Although it is tough to watch the offensive tackle/defensive end battle during a game, try your best to do so because you will not be disappointed.

Defense. For some reason, the tone of the message boards and Iowa fans in general this week was one of doom and woe is me. Could Iowa lose all of their remaining games? Absolutely. Will they? Probably not. Indiana is deflated coming into this game after their loss last week to Northwestern in which they led at one point 28-3. While Indiana’s offensive statistics are pretty much all in the middle of the Big 10, do not forget how solid this Iowa defense has been all season. Indiana’s pistol offense is somewhat flashy, relying on a lot of misdirection plays, reverses, and semi-tricky plays, but this Iowa defense has shown that it can handle a variety of offensive attacks. Although Indiana’s quarterback Ben Chappell is an efficient passer, the pressure that the Iowa defensive front four will be able to apply and the ever-sturdy defensive backfield will make it a long day for Chappell.

Instead of having a fragile psyche about this game, I think Iowa fans should look forward to Saturday to see how Stanzi does if O’Keefe gives him the keys to the offense. Personally, I am interested to see who the punt returner will be on Saturday. In his call-in show on Wednesday night, Ferentz indicated that Amari Spievey would return punts. Call me crazy, but I have a hunch that Keenan Davis will be back there. Although we have been calling for it all year, I think this the game that the Hawkeyes put up some serious points on the scoreboard and win by a sizeable margin. The weather looks to be absolutely perfect for a fall Saturday in October. What better way to spend one’s Saturday than in Kinnick welcoming back the team that is 8-0 for the first time in school history, 4th in the BCS standings and, week in and week out, playing solid, fundamental football in a season that has been one for the ages.

Prediction: Iowa 31 Indiana 10

Pick to Click: Derrell Johnson-Koulianos