Wisconsin Predictions

If you would have told me before the season started that Jewel Hampton would not play a single down, Bryan Bulaga would miss three games, and that the offensive line was playing musical chairs, I would have said 3-3 at best. Nonetheless, Iowa is 6-0 for the first time since 1985 with quality wins at Penn State and against Michigan and Arizona. Iowa’s Big 10 road schedule was always brought up as a reason why the Hawkeyes could have a so-so year. Iowa passed its first test in Happy Valley and now faces an uber-critical matchup against rival Wisconsin in Madison. Here are my thoughts on the game.

Running Game. Despite an ever-changing offensive line, Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher have been able to make the most of their opportunity and are quickly establishing themselves as consistent, dependable backs. As a team, the Hawkeyes are only averaging 3.7 yards a carry compared to the 4.8 average last year. Last week, the Iowa rushing attack was able to muster together 83 total yards and while that takes into account several sacks and a bad snap, it is somewhat worrisome. As they say, it is going to be tough sledding against Wisconsin. Wisconsin allows 122 rushing yards a game, which is good enough for fifth in the Big Ten. Something will give this weekend and I think it is Iowa’s running game. Look for the Hawkeyes to struggle running the ball against a pretty salty Wisconsin defensive line led by O’Brien Schofield. Schofield leads the nation in tackles for loss with 14.5. The way Brandon Graham ate up Bulaga and Kyle Calloway last week, I think Iowa fans will be hearing Schofield’s name on a regular basis this Saturday.

Stop the Run. One thing that I have always loved about the Iowa-Wisconsin game is that it is a brand of football that harkens back to football games of yesteryear with both teams committed to running the football and both teams committed to playing a style of smash-mouth football on defense. Wisconsin running back John Clay is 17th in the nation averaging 107 yards a game. Although Wisconsin’s style of offense fits well into Iowa’s gameplan on defense, Iowa did not exactly look stout against Michigan last week when Michigan lined up in the power-I formation and ran at will. Granted, Iowa was likely still concerned about the spread and playing contain defense, leaving open the middle gaps, but it is still a cause of concern leading up to this game. Wisconsin’s offensive line brings a whole new meaning to the Keith Jackson phrase “Big Hog Mollies,” as Wisconsin averages 312 pounds on the offensive line. While I am still really excited about Christian Ballard at defensive tackle, I think that he and Karl Klug will have a long day trying to clog the “A” gaps, which would allow the linebackers the opportunity to penetrate into the backfield.

Distance. Daniel Murray has proved that he is a solid kicker in the clutch and is for all intents and purposes a steady kicker from 20-39 yards. While Murray should have had an opportunity to hit a 48 yarder before halftime last week, he still seems to struggle from long distances. Although his career long is from 47 yards, because this game will be a game of field position, Iowa will likely need to rely on Murray to put several long field goals through the uprights. Murray’s lack of distance on kickoffs is also a cause for concern, and with a dangerous David Gilreath back to receive, who knows what could happen.

Mistakes. Normally, I am an Iowa kool-aid drinker, but I think that the mistakes that have been made so far this season will begin to catch up with this team. While those mistakes obviously include the oft-discussed “pick 6s,” it also includes poor blocking technique, wrong routes, and missed assignments on defense. Any and all mistakes are compounded on the road, and I think this week is when Iowa’s magic number runs out, unfortunately.

Sorry for the bitter and very negative thoughts, Hawkeye fans. I have not had a good feeling about this game all week. With rumors flying around about the flu bug hitting the team, it makes things seem that much worse. Last week, the Wisconsin defense made Terrelle Pryor look silly, which does not bode well for Iowa’s inconsistent offense. Although I think the Iowa defense can hang tough against Wisconsin, I am afraid that they will be out on the field too long due to Iowa’s inability to sustain drives with a consistent running game. As if playing on the road was not hard enough, Wisconsin is 34-3 at Camp Randall since 2004, with those three losses coming against Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State. Perhaps the only two items that give me hope are the fact that Wisconsin’s style of offense really matches up well against Iowa’s defense, and due to the fact that, sans Ohio State, Wisconsin has not played anyone worth two beans this year (Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Wofford, MSU, Minnesota, and OSU). Thanks for the wonderful ten-game winning streak, Hawkeyes. It has been fun while it has lasted, but I am afraid that the winning streak and undefeated season will end on Saturday in Madison. If the Hawkeyes are able to win, I think they will stay undefeated going into Columbus. Likewise, if Iowa wins, I am sure Bret Bielema will give Iowa zero credit for winning the game, just like last year.

Prediction: Wisconsin 20 Iowa 17

Pick to Click: Pat Angerer