Michigan Predictions

One of the most anticipated homecoming games in Iowa history is almost upon us. Let us all hope that this game turns out differently than the previous two homecomings—both losses. Here are my thoughts leading up to the game.

Defensive Pressure. Based on the weather forecast for Saturday, Iowa will need to look to old reliable (i.e. the Iowa defense) to force Tate Forcier into making poor decisions. Although Forcier can beat teams when a play breaks down, he is still young enough that by putting enough pressure on him, the Iowa zone defense may be able to come up with a few interceptions. If anything, the Iowa defense may struggle with Michigan’s misdirection plays and zone reads. The key for the Iowa defense will be to play solid assignment football to prevent plays from going to the outside. This well-disciplined Norm Parker coached defense has done that all year, but in the heat of the game, some guys may get too anxious and over pursue. As I mentioned in my previous post, Jon Miller of HawkeyeNation.com has been pointing to Iowa’s ability to tackle well as the key to the game, which I tend to also agree on as an important element for an Iowa victory. If the Iowa defense plays assignment football and tackles well, then I think that there is no reason why Iowa cannot keep the score of this game at an appropriate level for the offense to win the game. Keep in mind that Michigan is second in the Big Ten in scoring offense, scoring approximately 34 points a game, while Iowa is 10th nationally in scoring defense, allowing only 13 points a game. Something has to give this Saturday, and I think it is the Michigan offense.

Not If, But How and Where. I have given up on predicting that Ricky Stanzi is going to have a breakout game. Do not get me wrong, I am not down on Stanzi, as I think he is a very solid quarterback who is capable of great things; however, I also think that he is still trying to get back to the way he was playing toward the end of last season. I think Stanzi will have one or two interceptions on Saturday, but as the heading indicates, it will be a matter of where he turns the ball over and if it leads to a pick six like the Arizona and Arkansas State games. I hope that Ken O’Keefe decides to stretch the field again as he did last week. By stretching the field, it will open up the running game and if the Iowa running game gets on a roll, it could be a two touchdown victory for Iowa, unlikely but possible.

Special Teams Disadvantage. This is probably the only game in which Iowa does not have the special teams advantage. Zolton Mesko, Michigan’s punter, is considered one of the best in the country averaging 44 yards a punt this season with a long of 66 yards, while Michigan leads the Big Ten in net punting. Thus, enjoy the punting battle between Mesko and Ryan Donahue. Michigan kick returner Darryl Stonum is a dangerous one, and given Iowa’s so-so kickoff distance and kick coverage this season, he may change the field position battle with one swift return. Stonum averages 30 yards a return and has a long of 94, which he returned for a touchdown.

Big Hog Mollies. After an admitted poor game, the Iowa offensive line will need to get back on track this week to help establish the running game in order to help Stanzi and the rest of the offense. Perhaps the most concerning matchup is on the right side of the line where Julian Vandervelde and Kyle Calloway will have to face potential 1st team All American defensive end Brandon Graham who was second in the nation last year with 20 tackles for loss, and who already has 6.5 tackles for loss thus far this season. The right side of the line did not have one of their better games last week, but based on the comments made by Vandervelde, Bulaga and others this week, it sounds like the mistakes that were made are all easily correctable. One has to think that with the likely addition of Tony Moeaki, not only will the offensive line play be better, but the Iowa running game will improve this week.

If Iowa can score early and put pressure on Forcier early, good things are going to happen. Also, keep in mind that there is some chatter coming out of Ann Arbor that the Michigan offense has had several moving parts this week, with some rumors that Michigan running back Carlos Brown may be out. Likewise, Forcier appeared to have hurt his shoulder last week against Michigan State. Although no one wants to see him out of the game, one hard hit to Forcier may cause some damage. I officially take back my comments on the blackout. If the fans are able to pull it off, it is going to look very cool, especially if the rumor is true that gold towels will be handed out to fans as they enter Kinnick. By the time 7:00 rolls around, the Iowa fans will be well-oiled and ready to scream their lungs out. If Stanzi limits his turnovers and if the Iowa defense continues to play solid football, I think Iowa beats Michigan for only the eleventh time in school history.

Prediction: Iowa 24 Michigan 14

Pick to Click: Broderick Binns