Michigan State Predictions

Although I am not one for hyperboles, I do not think it is a stretch to say that this is one of the most critical games for the Iowa football program in the past ten years. A win on Saturday would result in the first ever 8-0 start for an Iowa football team, a very good chance at a Big Ten championship, and a possible Rose Bowl berth, something that has not happened since 1991. Here are my thoughts leading up to the game.

Quarterback Play. Call me crazy, but I really think that Ricky Stanzi has turned the corner and will become the solid performer that we all expected him to be this year. His arm strength and precision has never really been an issue, rather it has been his decisionmaking process. Although Stanzi has always been mature beyond his years under center, I think the 4th down play on the final offensive drive last weekend really illustrates his growth with respect to the decisionmaking process. I am sure the coaching staff told him not to throw it unless the tight end was clearly wide open or if he could pick up the first down on the ground. Although Allen Reisner was open enough, Stanzi made the smart play by running out of bounds and not risking the interception. Stanzi’s performance against Wisconsin makes me think that he is going to have an outstanding game against Michigan State. His counterpart for Michigan State, Kirk Cousins, will certainly do his best to be the better quarterback in this contest. Cousins currently leads the Big Ten in pass efficiency, completing around 64% of his attempts. As goes Stanzi and Cousins, so goes their respective team. Stanzi will have to step up his game once again this week, as Michigan State’s defense has allowed only 99 yards per game on the ground, which is good enough for 19th nationally. This statistic really concerns me due to the struggles Iowa has had on the ground as of late. In my view, the quarterback who makes fewer mistakes will end up being on the winning end of this football game.

Defensive Struggle. Both Iowa and Michigan State have incredible defenses. Michigan State is probably the only team Iowa will face this year with a linebacker corps that is better than Iowa. Greg Jones, a junior, is the unequivocal leader of the Spartan defense, as he leads the Big Ten in tackles and is tied for fourth in the league in sack with five on the year. The other Michigan State linebackers, Eric Gordon and Brandon Denson, are two solid players whose names Iowa fans will likely hear regularly on Saturday. Mind you, Iowa’s defense is no slouch. Iowa leads the Big Ten in pass efficiency defense, and everyone knows that Iowa leads the nation in interceptions. Given the predicted weather for East Lansing, I hope that Iowa fans are looking forward to a classic Big Ten showdown because this game has all the making of a slugfest. After the loss of Javon Ringer and the midseason injury to Glenn Winston, Michigan State has had to rely on freshmen running back Larry Caper. This week, the Spartans will also feature another true freshmen running back, Edwin Baker in the backfield, who had his redshirt pulled last week against Northwestern. One other item that makes me think that the Iowa defensive line will have a solid game is that Michigan State has had to replace three starters from its offensive line from last year. Because Wisconsin and Michigan State are somewhat similar in their offensive approaches, I think the Iowa defense will be very well prepared for the game this week and will shut down the Spartan ground game like they did in the second half against Wisconsin.

Kicking Delight. As they always say, special teams play is crucial in any big game. Similar to the defense, both teams have very solid kicking games. Brett Swenson is 10 of 11 on the year and, as a senior, has seen his fair share of important kicks during his time. Maybe it is me, but I think one statistic that has not been emphasized enough is net punting. Iowa has had only thirteen punts returned for a total of 46 yards, which is a 3.5 yard average per return. Those “hidden” yards can make a huge difference in winning the field position battle, a battle that often determines the winner. Daniel Murray’s career best 48 yard boot at the end of the first half against Wisconsin gives the coaching staff a reason to have more confidence when the ball is in Michigan State territory. If I had to venture a guess, I would guess that Murray will have at least three opportunities to put three points up on the board on Saturday. I only need to remind you of last year’s final score of 16-13 to emphasize that field goals will likely play an important role again this weekend.

Strange Numbers. The recurring theme all week has been numbers. First, Kirk Ferentz’s record in East Lansing and that the Hawkeyes have not won in East Lansing since 1995. Second, Iowa has the opportunity to go 8-0 for the first time in school history. Well here are a few other numbers for you. Michigan State has not defeated a team ranked in the Top 50 in total defense. In case you were curious, Iowa is ranked 22nd. Likewise, Michigan State gave up 14 points to an Illinois team that has not scored more than 17 points against any 1-A opponent this entire season and gave up 38 points to a Wisconsin team that scored only 10 points against Iowa.

As unbelievable as it may sound this early in the season, the winner of this game has the inside track on representing the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl. Iowa plays three of its remaining four games at home, while Michigan State closes out the season against Minnesota on the road, Western Michigan at home, Purdue on the road, and Penn State at home. While the national pundits continue to have doubts about this Iowa team, you and I all know that they are putting together a season that will not soon be forgotten. This team just has a knack to find a way to win games. Something tells me that they will find a way to come up with a win on Saturday that continues this magical ride.

Prediction: Iowa 20 Michigan State 14

Pick to Click: Ricky Stanzi