Arizona Predictions

The game that Iowa fans have been worried about the entire offseason is finally here. However, if those same fans knew that the Iowa offense would look this consistent this early in the season, I wonder if those fans would have had the same lingering concerns. My thoughts and predictions on this game have waffled considerably over the entire offseason and this past week. Here are my thoughts.

• Defensive Pressure. Arizona has three offensive weapons that should give Iowa fans cause for concern. Nick Foles, who came in at quarterback in the second half of the game last season, is a presence in the pocket completing 84% of his pass attempts in two games this season. While the competition of Toledo and The Citadel is not exactly top notch competition, that completion percentage is still off the charts and should worry Iowa fans. Foles’s favorite target is 6-4 wide receiver Juron Criner who is a physical wide receiver that can stretch the field and make big plays. The final piece of this trio is running back Nic Grigsby who Iowa fans saw plenty of last year when he ran for 75 yards on 11 carries against the Hawkeyes. Even though Arizona’s offensive statistics have been astronomical this year, Foles is a pure pocket passer and, therefore, if Iowa is able to create pressure using just its defensive line, the timing that is critical in this Arizona passing offense will be thrown off, which could lead to hurried throws or Foles throwing the ball out of bounds. Perhaps even more important is that if the defensive line is able to create pressure without blitzing, it will allow the linebackers to stay in coverage against an Arizona passing attack that relies on short passing routes. Although Arizona will be able to move the ball in short gains, I think Arizona will be surprised at how talented this Iowa defense truly is and will struggle to deal with the physical play by the second half.

• Big Run. Adam Robinson showed last week why Iowa fans have come to love him since he burst on the scene last year against UNI. Robinson’s ability to keep his legs moving and shake tackles causes him to gain extra yards on each carry, which might seem negligible at first glance, but second down and four is a much different situation than second down and seven by allowing for greater flexibility with play calling on second down. Jewel Hampton admitted this week during the weekly Iowa press conference that he was anxious in his first game in over a year last week against Iowa State. One could tell watching the game that he was not patient for his cutback lanes to open and hit the hole about one step too quickly. If Hampton is able to let the game slow down and have patience, I think that there is a good chance he breaks a big run against an Arizona defense that only returns four starters from last year’s defense.

• Kicking Question. I mentioned after the Iowa State game that we have yet to see Trent Mossbrucker, or any kicker for that matter, attempt a field goal this season. Mossbrucker has not attempted a field goal since late in 2008 and has not had an opportunity to kick a field goal under significant pressure in his career. This, of course, assumes that Kirk Ferentz would call on Mossbrucker to trot out for the first field goal attempt of the year. Daniel Murray appears to be available this week, but I would guess that Mossbrucker gets the first attempt due to Murray’s absence the past two weeks as the result of a hip flexor injury. In what will likely be a close game, Iowa will likely have several field goal opportunities, and on the road, successfully converting those attempts are critical if a road team wants to win. A missed field goal could mean the difference between walking out of Tucson with a win or a loss, as last year’s Ohio State game illustrated.

• Offensive Gameplan. One of the questions I pondered this week was whether Iowa would come out with a short passing plan similar to their first drive against Eastern Illinois, or a running plan that relies on Iowa’s bread and butter zone blocking stretch play. My guess is that we will see a balance of run and pass that Iowa fans have come to expect in the Kirk Ferentz era. I also think that we will see Iowa establish the run to set up the deep play action pass that seemed to work so well last week against Arizona. As Steve Deace, host of the soon to be former radio show Miller & Deace in the Morning always says, a college football team cannot hide its quarterback. Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi certainly is not hiding behind anything and is more than capable to handle any pressure or hostility that may be present in Tucson on Saturday. Stanzi has looked confident and poised in Iowa’s first two games and I look for him to continue that in this game and will lead the Iowa offense on several long scoring drives

There seem to be two trains of thoughts among Iowa fans’ thoughts on this game. One camp thinks Iowa will roll Arizona and walk away with a win by a two touchdown or more margin. The other camp has worried about this game the entire offseason and thinks it will be a close game, if not a potential loss. I tend to side with the latter camp, as Arizona has payback on its mind after last season’s loss in Iowa City. While I trust Kirk Ferentz that the heat and game time are non-issues, I am concerned with the fact that Norm Parker will not be making the trip, a trip he also missed in 2004 when Iowa was humbled in a 44-7 loss at Arizona State. While every Iowa fan should be most concerned with Parker being discharged from the hospital and getting back to good health, there is no doubt that his presence will be missed. Think about taking an early evening nap or even a pregame coffee, Hawkeye fans, as this game is going to challenge your ability to stay awake to watch a great football game.

Prediction: Iowa 24 Arizona 21

Pick to Click: Jeff Tarpinian