Penn State Predictions

The start of conference play is the beginning of a new season and, in Iowa’s case, an opportunity to do something that has not been done since 1985—an outright conference championship. Conference home games seem to bring out the best in the fans, but I think this Saturday will bring out the best in the Iowa Hawkeyes. Here are my thoughts.

Defensive Line Pressure. The talk around the water coolers this week was the performance by Mike Daniels against Ball State. Daniels, the Big Ten defensive player of the week, has been able to fill a void that has arguably existed in several other Iowa defensive lines, which is the ability to not miss a step with the first player off the bench. Iowa fans several years ago seemed to complain, unjustifiably so might I add, that Norm Parker did not substitute enough on the defensive line leading some fans to think that the defensive line wore down as the game progressed. Daniels provides the Iowa coaching staff with a luxury of being able to rotate a fifth player into the defensive line and not only count on his consistent play, but also expect big plays to be made. Penn State’s offense is a traditional, pro-set offense, which Iowa has not faced all season long. While Evan Royster is a very talented running back, I think it will be difficult for Penn State to establish a consistent ground game against the Iowa defensive line. Because Penn State quarterback Robert Bolden is a drop back quarterback, I would also expect the Iowa defensive line to create pressure against Bolden the entire game. Those Iowa fans that have been critical of Adrian Clayborn’s play this year may finally get their wish, as Clayborn and the entire defensive line will have more opportunities to get sacks when Bolden takes five and seven step drops rather than the quick passing attacks that Iowa has faced in the first four weeks.

Forgotten Man. Is it just me or has Ricky Stanzi been the forgotten man this year? Stanzi ranks 5th in the NCAA in passing efficiency completing 66% of his passes with nine touchdowns to date. Stanzi has quietly led the Iowa offense the entire season with the patience and effectiveness that one would expect from a fifth year senior. If Iowa can establish any type of ground game with Adam Robinson, expect Stanzi to stretch the Penn State defense by throwing the ball downfield and to the deep corners. From an offensive perspective, one thing that I would like to see this weekend is more screen plays to the running back, particularly screens to the middle of the field, as I think Iowa could surprise an overly aggressive and young Penn State linebacker corps.

Tight End Play. If he continues at this rate, Allen Reisner will likely continue the streak of every starting tight end in the Kirk Ferentz era being drafted by an NFL team. The sure-handed Reisner has become a security blanket for Stanzi, due in large part to Stanzi’s maturity in checking down to his tight end rather than forcing a ball downfield into coverage. Reisner has also developed into a solid blocking tight end, an important prerequisite for tight ends in the Iowa system.

Joe Paterno. I am sure Iowa fans thought in 2006 and 2008 that they would be witnessing Joe Paterno’s final trip to Kinnick Stadium. The 83-year old Paterno still has his stoic presence on the sidelines, but I can tell that he has changed even since last year. While I have not listened to every one of his press conferences this year, it is apparent that something is just not the same, as Paterno is not as witty or quick with his responses. Although I will not go so far as to say that Paterno will retire at the end of the season, I will make it a point to try and get into the stadium early enough to get what may be my final opportunity to see one of the most iconic figures the history of college football as he makes his way to the Penn State sidelines. Someday I will get to tell my kids that I saw Paterno coach in person, the same way that other people have told their children about seeing Bear Bryant, Bobby Bowden, Woody Hayes, or Bo Schembechler coach in person.

I have had a good feeling about this game the entire season. Even though Penn State is a good football team that has an opportunity to challenge some of the Big Ten heavyweights this season, Iowa is not one of those. Penn State’s offensive mentality plays right into Iowa’s strengths and will become apparent mid-way through the third quarter. Iowa’s top-ranked defense should be able to contain Royster and should be able to put enough pressure on Bolden that the true freshman will likely be forced into poor decisionmaking throwing the football. One more thing, what gimmick will the Iowa marketing department come up with next? Seriously, how many different color themed games can a team have in one year or in consecutive years? Given the predicted cold forecast for Saturday, I expect the alternating black and gold section theme to fail. Maybe I am being too critical, but how can an Iowa fan not be about these efforts? Remember, this is the same marketing department that brought us “Let’s Get Mad Again,” one of the most cryptic, difficult to understand slogans ever created for a sports team. If the Iowa faithful is able to pull it off, however, I promise that I will be the first to admit it.

Prediction: Iowa 21 Penn State 10

Pick to Click: Tyler Sash