Eastern Illinois Predictions

As the 121st season of Iowa Hawkeye football is about to begin, the anticipation leading up to the season opener is momentous for several reasons. The expectations surrounding this season and team are arguably the highest they have ever been in Iowa football history with a seasoned senior quarterback at the helm, an explosive receiver corps, two established running backs, and one of the best defensive lines in the country lead by the best defensive end in the country. Iowa fans also received two other great pieces of news in the days leading up to the opener. The anticipation and concern leading up to the Big Ten’s announcement of the division of the conference resulted in a collective sigh of relief by Iowa fans with Iowa placed in the division with Nebraska and Michigan and not in the division with Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Iowa athletic director Gary Barta announced on Thursday that Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz signed a contract extension that will lock Ferentz up as the head coach through the 2020 season. With all of those exciting developments over the past few days, it is even more exciting that the season is finally here. Here are my thoughts.

• Division Alignment. Ok, I admit it, I was wrong with my predictions; however, in my defense, I do not think many people would have anticipated at the beginning of August that Michigan and Ohio State would be in separate divisions. When the announcement was made on Wednesday night, Iowa fans should have received the announcement with open arms. With Iowa in the same division as Nebraska, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, and Northwestern, Iowa has a realistic chance of making the Big Ten championship game for the foreseeable future, especially if Michigan continues its downward spiral and makes a coaching change after the season, which will likely set them back for another two to three year rebuilding process. While some Iowa fans seemed to be puzzled with the selection of Purdue as Iowa’s opposite division protected rival, to me it is a complete non-issue. Everyone knew going into this process that some rivalries were going to be sacrificed and that each school would have to concede on some points. Given the final divisions, there was no way that the Big Ten was going to split up the Wisconsin-Minnesota rivalry, which is the most-played rivalry in college football, nor was there any way that the conference would get rid of Illinois-Northwestern or the national television exposure of the Penn State-Nebraska matchup. Even though recent Iowa and Purdue games have been very competitive, Iowa fans should view their new rival as a game on the schedule that more often than not will give the Hawkeyes an opportunity for a win as opposed to the more competitive matchups with Penn State, Wisconsin, or Ohio State. On the whole, I think the Big Ten conference did a fantastic job of maintaining traditional rivalries and achieving competitive balance. Perhaps the only school with a true gripe is Wisconsin, who now faces annual matchups with Penn State and Ohio State, even though Wisconsin fans seem to embrace the notion that their program is strong enough to compete with those two programs. Speaking of Wisconsin, I have a conspiracy theory that has not, at least to my knowledge, been discussed by many people. The Big Ten Network announced early Wednesday morning that they would host a show at 6 p.m. that night revealing the divisions. Later in the day, around 12:30 or so, ESPN’s Andy Katz broke a story with the division breakdown, and his report proved to be correct. Given Wisconsin’s arguable disappointment with the announcement and the fact that Andy Katz, a competitor, broke the story, I cannot help but wonder if Katz, a Wisconsin alum, received some valuable information from Wisconsin athletic director, Barry Alvarez. While that is a total guess and likely not true, it is an interesting theory nonetheless. Iowa fans should not only be excited about their placement, but they should also be pleased with the fact that Iowa will now play Nebraska in the final week of the Big Ten season. The animosity between the two fan bases, and states for that matter, will be increasing at a measurable rate between now and November 26, 2011.

• What to Watch. There are several things that I am looking forward to watching on Saturday. The offensive line has been the target of questions the entire offseason after losing four starters from last year’s team. With Adam Gettis out for Saturday’s game with an ankle injury, Iowa fans will not get to see the starting five linemen working as a unit until the Iowa State game. Likewise, with Cody Hundermarkt, Gettis’s backup, announcing his departure from the Iowa program, it will likely fall on Nolan MacMillan, a redshirt freshman from Canada to become the “Next Man In.” In addition to the offensive line play, I am curious to watch the linebacker play of Jeff Tarpinian, Bruce Davis, and Tyler Nielsen. Supposedly Tarpinian is going to give it a go on Saturday despite suffering a broken hand a few weeks ago; however, I am guessing that Iowa fans will see plenty of Davis at the middle linebacker position. Nielsen has the unenviable task of filling the shoes of AJ Edds. I am curious to see how Nielsen, who is also nursing an injury, plays in pass coverage, which Edds turned into an art form in his last two season at the position. The kicking game, which has also been an area of concern since spring practice, has appeared to settle down based on Kirk Ferentz’s comments earlier this week. Nonetheless, I am curious to see which kicker marches out for that first field goal attempt. My guess is Daniel Murray. The bigger curiosity is freshmen walk-on kicker Mike Meyer handling kickoff duties, which gives me concern about the leg strength of the other two kickers.

• Offensive Dominance. With all of the offensive weapons that Iowa has entering the season, it would be nice to see these talents showcased with several sustained touchdown drives. While I expect Iowa to be able to move the ball with relative ease against Eastern Illinois, it will be important for the offense to focus on execution and consistency to continue the work that they put in during camp. One of my biggest concerns about Ricky Stanzi entering the year was expressed earlier this week by Kirk Ferentz, which is that Stanzi will press too hard and be harder on himself than necessary. Based on Stanzi’s demeanor, I think these concerns will not materialize, but it will be interesting to watch how he handles the lofty expectations in the first few games.

• The New King. When Gary Barta announced that Kirk Ferentz’s contract was extended through 2020, I could not help but think that if he remains at Iowa for the remainder of that contract, Iowa will have the good fortune to have two head coaches for more than forty years and, with respect to Ferentz’s staff, a continuity of assistants that is unparalleled anywhere else in the nation. I have always said that even if Iowa’s record is 6-6 or 5-7, there is no one I would rather have as the head coach of the University of Iowa. The University of Iowa could not have a better or classier person represent the University than Ferentz. Regardless of the outcome of this season, I think the Ferentz has already done enough to deserve a seat next to Hayden Fry and Forest Evashevski as the greatest coaches in Iowa football history.

Christmas Day is almost here. The dog days of summer are almost behind us and the sights and smells of fall are almost upon us. As one of the most anticipated seasons in Iowa football history is about to begin, I have to remind myself to enjoy each and every game, as it always amazes me how quickly twelve Saturdays of Hawkeye football pass each year. While I promised a season prediction earlier this year, I have to admit that I have struggled with it in my mind over the past few months. Therefore, I am going to stick my initial gut reaction and predict that Iowa will go 10-2 with losses to Wisconsin and Michigan. Nonetheless, I still think that Iowa could make the Rose Bowl, as I do not think Ohio State will run the table in the Big Ten, nor do I think Wisconsin is capable of going unscathed through the Big Ten. If the Hawkeyes prove me wrong and go 11-1 or the improbable 12-0, there will not be a happier person in the Hawkeye nation. Oh, one more thing. The last time the season started on September 4th was 2004 when Iowa won a share of the Big Ten championship, so maybe fate indeed is on the side of the Hawkeyes.

Prediction: Iowa 41 Eastern Illinois 10

Pick to Click: Ricky Stanzi