Ball State Predictions

The time for being upset about the Arizona game is over. As I mentioned in my last installment, I think Iowa’s schedule sets up perfect for this team to regain its confidence heading into conference play. The loss of Jewel Hampton to season-ending ACL surgery depletes an already short-handed Iowa backfield, and although his injury is particularly disheartening given that he tore the ACL in his other knee prior to last season, as they say in Ft. Kinnick, next man in for the Hawkeyes. Here are my thoughts.


Special Teams Improvement. While Ball State does not present much in the way of a challenge to either the offense or the defense, Ball State’s Eric Williams is sixth in the nation in kickoff return yardage averaging 36.14 yards a return. Given Iowa’s well-documented struggles on kickoff coverage last week against Arizona and the entire season, I think this presents a great opportunity for Iowa’s kickoff coverage unit to have more practice and experience. Expecting that Iowa’s offense will score at least four touchdowns, that gives Iowa’s kickoff coverage unit at least five opportunities to improve upon its season performance to date. I would also expect to see several starters on kickoff coverage including Tyler Sash, Jeff Tarpinian, and Tyler Nielsen.

Defensive Line Dominance. Despite not putting up the quantifiable numbers that unrealistic Iowa fans expected the Iowa defensive line to put up this season, the unit as a whole has been outstanding ranking ninth in the nation in rush defense allowing only 68.67 yards per game. This game may be the game that Adrian Clayborn puts up the statistics that unrealistic Iowa fans were hoping to see all season. Granted, Clayborn has been double-teamed and triple-teamed all season, but that should not stop him from getting at least three sack a game, right? I only jest because I think that Clayborn has played exceptionally well this year and has freed up the other defensive linemen to make plays in the backfields of opponents. Mel Kiper evidently moved Clayborn down his big board from fifth to eighth. If Kiper believes that Clayborn’s performance thus far merits such a demotion, then his subjective, ridiculous ranking of college seniors is even more ludicrous than I thought.

Field Goal. Because Iowa should be able to move the ball freely against Ball State, it is conceivable that the Hawkeyes may go four weeks without a field goal attempt. Nonetheless, I think that Trent Mossbrucker will finally have at least one attempt on Saturday. While Mossbrucker has not attempted a field goal all season and while it is still his job to lose, I think he may be on semi-thin ice with Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa coaching staff after his blocked point after attempt last Saturday. Iowa teams under Ferentz have thrived on consistent and steady special teams play. In light of the other issues with special teams, the kicking game will need to improve in anticipation of Big Ten play. With Daniel Murray still out with a hip-flexor injury, Iowa fans may see true freshmen Mike Meyer trot out for a field goal attempt on Saturday to give the coaching staff an opportunity to judge more than one kicker’s performance.

Offensive Line. Because I could not force myself to watch a replay of the Arizona game, I have to base these next comments on my memory of watching the game live in Tucson. I thought that Iowa’s offensive line performance was much better than Iowa fans have been complaining about all week. Yes, the last series was an awful performance, but for the rest of the game, Ricky Stanzi had plenty of time to throw the ball down field on deep routes that took significant time to develop. Arizona had the luxury of playing with a lead for the most of the game, which allowed them to be more aggressive on defense and blitz more than they may have even planned to do. On the last series, it was simply a matter of numbers that the Iowa offensive line and running backs could not pick up the number of defenders that Arizona brought with the consecutive blitzes. I would guess that the Iowa offense worked on blitz pickup and on hot routes to beat the blitz, as the Arizona defense presented the blueprint for how to attack the Iowa offense.

The hangover from the Arizona loss was probably a little bit longer than other Iowa loss hangovers. Perhaps it was an over-inflated sense of what might have been this season, or perhaps it was a lingering disappointment that despite being down twenty points at halftime, this Iowa team almost completed the improbable comeback win. Although I tended to feel the latter of the two during my own sobering process of getting over the Arizona loss, it is also the reason that gives me an optimistic outlook for the remainder of the season. To think that almost everything that could go wrong in a game did go wrong, and for Iowa to still be within an extra point of taking the lead makes me still believe that this Iowa team is a special group that is capable of accomplishing big goals this season. Although Iowa may come out a little flat against Ball State and although the score may not be a total thrashing, this Saturday is the start of a new season in which great things are still possible.

Prediction: Iowa 38 Ball State 7

Pick to Click: Adrian Clayborn