The annual intrastate matchup that Iowa fans dislike to play because more is at stake with a loss and the game that Iowa State fans have to defend as not being important comes at a time when the animosity between the two fanbases is at a high level. While this annual game does not garner much attention outside of the state, in a state with a population of approximately 3 million people, there is little doubt that the eyes of most Iowans are on the game. Here are my thoughts.
• Defensive Line Pressure. In the week leading up to this game, much has been made about the performance of Iowa’s defensive line in last season’s game. While Iowa walked away with a 35-3 victory, the defensive line was gashed for 190 rushing yards by Iowa State. You have all heard the stories about Iowa defensive line coach Rick Kaczenski holding a meeting with the defensive linemen that was a heated film session to point out what he believed to be a lackadaisical effort on their part. Almost all of the same characters in this story between the Iowa defensive line and the Iowa State offensive line and backfield are back for part two. The most important key for Iowa’s defensive line in this game will be to play their gaps and responsibilities, as read-option offenses like Iowa State rely heavily on over-pursuit by defensive linemen. While I do not think Iowa’s defensive line will stop Iowa State the same way they stopped the Georgia Tech running attack in the Orange Bowl, I do think they will improve on last year’s performance.
• Touchdown-Less. It is amazing to think of all the things that have occurred since 2006 when Iowa State last scored a touchdown against Iowa. The Iowa State offense returns most of its key contributors from last year’s team, including quarterback Austin Arnaud and running back Alexander Robinson. Couple that experience with a second year of the same coaching staff led on offense by innovative offensive coordinator Tom Herman and I think it is likely that the touchdown-less streak will end this Saturday. On the other hand, while Iowa State will likely be able to move the ball between the 20s, when they do get to the red zone and are forced to deal with that extra safety (i.e. the back of the endzone), expect the Iowa defense to do what it does best in the redzone and force field goals. Either way, I think that Iowa State scores at least one if not two touchdowns in this game.
• Turnover Frenzy. In addition to the discussion on the 190 rushing yards surrendered by Iowa’s defense last year, the other popular discussion point leading up to this game are Iowa State’s six turnovers that were caused or forced, depending on your point of view, in last year’s game. As always in rivalry games, turnovers and special teams tend to be the most critical factors in determining the winner. While I do not think Iowa has to play turnover free, I think they at least need to be plus two in turnover margin to win by double digits. While Arnaud has certainly improved since his five interception disaster last year, in watching Iowa State’s game against Northern Illinois it is clear that he still misses linebacker and safety zone coverage in the middle. I expect him to throw at least one interception this Saturday.
• Running Game. This Saturday will see the return of Jewel Hampton to the Iowa backfield. While I am as excited as any other Hawkeye fan to see Hampton back in the lineup, the one thing that concerns me is ball security. As a freshman, Hampton had a tendency to fumble, which along with missing blocks, are two things that a running back cannot do. Despite that concern, I think the change of pace between Hampton and Adam Robinson will eventually wear down the Iowa State defense. While my prediction indicates a close game, I could also see the game being close for three quarters until the Iowa rushing attack eventually wears down the Iowa State defense.
I am very interested to see if the two schools continue this game if the Big Ten does move to a nine game conference schedule, as it may take an act by the Iowa legislature to continue the series in the same way that the Iowa legislature renewed the series back in 1977. Since 1998 when Iowa State ended Iowa’s fifteen game winning streak, I have always just wanted this game to be a win and move on to the next game, as I think Iowa always has so much more to lose in this game and Iowa State always seems to play above their talent level in this matchup. While I do think that Iowa State has improved in Paul Rhoads’ second year, the fact that Iowa is senior laden on both sides of the ball and the fact that it is at Kinnick make me feel much better about the outcome.
Prediction: Iowa 24 Iowa State 17
Pick to Click: Derrell Johnson-Koulianos
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One way to make the game work after 2015 and beyond is if Iowa and Iowa State can manage to alternate their conference 5-game road schedules. For example, if in 2015, Iowa has 5 Big Ten road games then Iowa State needs to have 5 Big 12 home games. The team that has the 5-game road schedule that year is the home team for the game. This ensures at least 7 home games for both teams each year. The bigger question is if Gary Barta and Jamie Pollard want to play a team from another BCS conference as part of the non-conference schedule.
ReplyDeleteScore Prediction - Hawks win 28-17 w/ the game tied at half. Hawks take control in the 3rd after a Arnaud pick.
Pick to Click - Christian Ballard
1. This game is at Kinnick at Hawkeye football is at a fever pitch with fans in IC and around the country. The Iowa players know how much is riding on this game and are going to be amped by osmosis.
ReplyDelete2. Iowa is going to control the line of scrimmage (see bullet 1)
3. 3rd and Long is going to spell doom for Arnaud. INT's is what you get when you 'Mess with Sashquatch'.
4. Guns don't kill people, Clayborn kills people.
5. Playing the percentages - It's a simple game: the closer you get to their goal line, the more points you score. On that premise, Iowa's defense and special teams trumps ISU and will put the Hawkeyes in great field position all day.
Prediction: Iowa 24 ISU 10
Pick 2 Click: Ricky Stanzi
This morning while attempting to make a pot of espresso to turn my brain on, my elbow had an unfortunate mismatch against a protruding hinge, drawing a thick gold blood from my skin. The blood dripped down, falling only momentarily to the floor before sizzling and vanishing, removing the area of the floor with it. I peered down the hole. The hole extended, from what I could see, the entire 6 floors through the basement of my building. Perhaps further. This wasn't because my blood is acidic like some kinda Alien III thing. It's because my blood is boiling in anticipation of what we're going to do the 'clones on Saturday.
ReplyDeletePrediction: Iowa 33 ISU 12
Pick t'click: The Bossky from Osky, Tyler Sash