Penn State Predictions

The start of conference play is the beginning of a new season and, in Iowa’s case, an opportunity to do something that has not been done since 1985—an outright conference championship. Conference home games seem to bring out the best in the fans, but I think this Saturday will bring out the best in the Iowa Hawkeyes. Here are my thoughts.

Defensive Line Pressure. The talk around the water coolers this week was the performance by Mike Daniels against Ball State. Daniels, the Big Ten defensive player of the week, has been able to fill a void that has arguably existed in several other Iowa defensive lines, which is the ability to not miss a step with the first player off the bench. Iowa fans several years ago seemed to complain, unjustifiably so might I add, that Norm Parker did not substitute enough on the defensive line leading some fans to think that the defensive line wore down as the game progressed. Daniels provides the Iowa coaching staff with a luxury of being able to rotate a fifth player into the defensive line and not only count on his consistent play, but also expect big plays to be made. Penn State’s offense is a traditional, pro-set offense, which Iowa has not faced all season long. While Evan Royster is a very talented running back, I think it will be difficult for Penn State to establish a consistent ground game against the Iowa defensive line. Because Penn State quarterback Robert Bolden is a drop back quarterback, I would also expect the Iowa defensive line to create pressure against Bolden the entire game. Those Iowa fans that have been critical of Adrian Clayborn’s play this year may finally get their wish, as Clayborn and the entire defensive line will have more opportunities to get sacks when Bolden takes five and seven step drops rather than the quick passing attacks that Iowa has faced in the first four weeks.

Forgotten Man. Is it just me or has Ricky Stanzi been the forgotten man this year? Stanzi ranks 5th in the NCAA in passing efficiency completing 66% of his passes with nine touchdowns to date. Stanzi has quietly led the Iowa offense the entire season with the patience and effectiveness that one would expect from a fifth year senior. If Iowa can establish any type of ground game with Adam Robinson, expect Stanzi to stretch the Penn State defense by throwing the ball downfield and to the deep corners. From an offensive perspective, one thing that I would like to see this weekend is more screen plays to the running back, particularly screens to the middle of the field, as I think Iowa could surprise an overly aggressive and young Penn State linebacker corps.

Tight End Play. If he continues at this rate, Allen Reisner will likely continue the streak of every starting tight end in the Kirk Ferentz era being drafted by an NFL team. The sure-handed Reisner has become a security blanket for Stanzi, due in large part to Stanzi’s maturity in checking down to his tight end rather than forcing a ball downfield into coverage. Reisner has also developed into a solid blocking tight end, an important prerequisite for tight ends in the Iowa system.

Joe Paterno. I am sure Iowa fans thought in 2006 and 2008 that they would be witnessing Joe Paterno’s final trip to Kinnick Stadium. The 83-year old Paterno still has his stoic presence on the sidelines, but I can tell that he has changed even since last year. While I have not listened to every one of his press conferences this year, it is apparent that something is just not the same, as Paterno is not as witty or quick with his responses. Although I will not go so far as to say that Paterno will retire at the end of the season, I will make it a point to try and get into the stadium early enough to get what may be my final opportunity to see one of the most iconic figures the history of college football as he makes his way to the Penn State sidelines. Someday I will get to tell my kids that I saw Paterno coach in person, the same way that other people have told their children about seeing Bear Bryant, Bobby Bowden, Woody Hayes, or Bo Schembechler coach in person.

I have had a good feeling about this game the entire season. Even though Penn State is a good football team that has an opportunity to challenge some of the Big Ten heavyweights this season, Iowa is not one of those. Penn State’s offensive mentality plays right into Iowa’s strengths and will become apparent mid-way through the third quarter. Iowa’s top-ranked defense should be able to contain Royster and should be able to put enough pressure on Bolden that the true freshman will likely be forced into poor decisionmaking throwing the football. One more thing, what gimmick will the Iowa marketing department come up with next? Seriously, how many different color themed games can a team have in one year or in consecutive years? Given the predicted cold forecast for Saturday, I expect the alternating black and gold section theme to fail. Maybe I am being too critical, but how can an Iowa fan not be about these efforts? Remember, this is the same marketing department that brought us “Let’s Get Mad Again,” one of the most cryptic, difficult to understand slogans ever created for a sports team. If the Iowa faithful is able to pull it off, however, I promise that I will be the first to admit it.

Prediction: Iowa 21 Penn State 10

Pick to Click: Tyler Sash

Thoughts on Ball State Game

As I mentioned in my post prior to the game, I thought Ball State was exactly the type of opponent that Iowa needed coming off of the loss at Arizona. The result of the game also ended up being exactly what Iowa needed. Here are my thoughts.


Beast Mode. His teammates evidently nicknamed him the “Beast” for his constant motor and hard-nosed play, but Mike Daniels played like a possessed human on Saturday. Daniels ended the day with six tackles, one sack, and four tackles for losses. To think that Iowa only had to beat out Villanova during his recruitment illustrates yet again the Iowa coaching staff’s keen eye for talent. Granted, Ball State’s offensive line did not present much of a challenge, but if Daniels can continue that type of play for the rest of the year it will force teams to perhaps double team him, which will open up things for Adrian Clayborn and others. I have to continue to remind myself to enjoy every minute of this year’s defensive line play, as units as solid as this group do not come around at Iowa very often.

Running Game. Adam Robinson, Brad Rogers, and Marcus Coker all looked more than serviceable running the ball for a combined 260 yards and two touchdowns. While I would be surprised to see any runs longer than thirty yards for the remainder of the year, if this stable of running backs can run the ball effectively enough to establish the play action pass, the Iowa running game will not miss a beat. The accompanying offensive line play was also impressive on Saturday as there were clear running lanes open all day long. This unit has continued to improve each game and, if they continue on the standard course of improvement of Kirk Ferentz-coached offensive lines, could turn out to be a pleasant surprise given the concern about this group heading into the season.

Kicking Woes. While Mike Meyer had two touchbacks and the kickoff coverage improved, the 37 yard miss in the second quarter must have given the Iowa coaching staff some mild heartburn. As conference play begins and the competition increases, Iowa will undoubtedly be forced to convert its field goal attempts in order to win close games. For the time being, it would appear as though Meyer will be the guy called upon to attempt field goals against Penn State, I would not be surprised to see Trent Mossbrucker also have an opportunity on Saturday, as Kirk Ferentz may not be done with the placekicking audition quite yet.

Throwback Uniforms. As a fan of history and nostalgia, count me as one Iowa fan who particularly enjoyed the uniforms that Iowa wore on Saturday. Several Iowa beat writers commented that if Iowa had continued wearing those same uniforms, Iowa would be talked about in the same breath as Alabama, Penn State, and Michigan for classic uniforms. Unfortunately for Iowa fans, because the Hawkeyes have done throwbacks from the other two best eras of Iowa football, there are probably no other worthy throwbacks in Iowa’s history, well other than the banana peel uniforms from the mid 1990s.

Despite the non-conference loss to Arizona, Iowa has regained the role of the underdog, a role that Iowa players, coaches, and fans seem to relish. While merely a shadow of last year’s 10-2 team, Penn State is still a quality opponent and will present a strong challenge for the Hawkeyes on homecoming weekend. This game will again act as a great litmus test for this team as it heads towards a much needed bye week.

Ball State Predictions

The time for being upset about the Arizona game is over. As I mentioned in my last installment, I think Iowa’s schedule sets up perfect for this team to regain its confidence heading into conference play. The loss of Jewel Hampton to season-ending ACL surgery depletes an already short-handed Iowa backfield, and although his injury is particularly disheartening given that he tore the ACL in his other knee prior to last season, as they say in Ft. Kinnick, next man in for the Hawkeyes. Here are my thoughts.


Special Teams Improvement. While Ball State does not present much in the way of a challenge to either the offense or the defense, Ball State’s Eric Williams is sixth in the nation in kickoff return yardage averaging 36.14 yards a return. Given Iowa’s well-documented struggles on kickoff coverage last week against Arizona and the entire season, I think this presents a great opportunity for Iowa’s kickoff coverage unit to have more practice and experience. Expecting that Iowa’s offense will score at least four touchdowns, that gives Iowa’s kickoff coverage unit at least five opportunities to improve upon its season performance to date. I would also expect to see several starters on kickoff coverage including Tyler Sash, Jeff Tarpinian, and Tyler Nielsen.

Defensive Line Dominance. Despite not putting up the quantifiable numbers that unrealistic Iowa fans expected the Iowa defensive line to put up this season, the unit as a whole has been outstanding ranking ninth in the nation in rush defense allowing only 68.67 yards per game. This game may be the game that Adrian Clayborn puts up the statistics that unrealistic Iowa fans were hoping to see all season. Granted, Clayborn has been double-teamed and triple-teamed all season, but that should not stop him from getting at least three sack a game, right? I only jest because I think that Clayborn has played exceptionally well this year and has freed up the other defensive linemen to make plays in the backfields of opponents. Mel Kiper evidently moved Clayborn down his big board from fifth to eighth. If Kiper believes that Clayborn’s performance thus far merits such a demotion, then his subjective, ridiculous ranking of college seniors is even more ludicrous than I thought.

Field Goal. Because Iowa should be able to move the ball freely against Ball State, it is conceivable that the Hawkeyes may go four weeks without a field goal attempt. Nonetheless, I think that Trent Mossbrucker will finally have at least one attempt on Saturday. While Mossbrucker has not attempted a field goal all season and while it is still his job to lose, I think he may be on semi-thin ice with Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa coaching staff after his blocked point after attempt last Saturday. Iowa teams under Ferentz have thrived on consistent and steady special teams play. In light of the other issues with special teams, the kicking game will need to improve in anticipation of Big Ten play. With Daniel Murray still out with a hip-flexor injury, Iowa fans may see true freshmen Mike Meyer trot out for a field goal attempt on Saturday to give the coaching staff an opportunity to judge more than one kicker’s performance.

Offensive Line. Because I could not force myself to watch a replay of the Arizona game, I have to base these next comments on my memory of watching the game live in Tucson. I thought that Iowa’s offensive line performance was much better than Iowa fans have been complaining about all week. Yes, the last series was an awful performance, but for the rest of the game, Ricky Stanzi had plenty of time to throw the ball down field on deep routes that took significant time to develop. Arizona had the luxury of playing with a lead for the most of the game, which allowed them to be more aggressive on defense and blitz more than they may have even planned to do. On the last series, it was simply a matter of numbers that the Iowa offensive line and running backs could not pick up the number of defenders that Arizona brought with the consecutive blitzes. I would guess that the Iowa offense worked on blitz pickup and on hot routes to beat the blitz, as the Arizona defense presented the blueprint for how to attack the Iowa offense.

The hangover from the Arizona loss was probably a little bit longer than other Iowa loss hangovers. Perhaps it was an over-inflated sense of what might have been this season, or perhaps it was a lingering disappointment that despite being down twenty points at halftime, this Iowa team almost completed the improbable comeback win. Although I tended to feel the latter of the two during my own sobering process of getting over the Arizona loss, it is also the reason that gives me an optimistic outlook for the remainder of the season. To think that almost everything that could go wrong in a game did go wrong, and for Iowa to still be within an extra point of taking the lead makes me still believe that this Iowa team is a special group that is capable of accomplishing big goals this season. Although Iowa may come out a little flat against Ball State and although the score may not be a total thrashing, this Saturday is the start of a new season in which great things are still possible.

Prediction: Iowa 38 Ball State 7

Pick to Click: Adrian Clayborn

Thoughts on Arizona Game

As is most often the case, twenty four hours removed from Iowa’s first loss of the year things are not as bad as they seemed in the minutes and hours after Iowa’s 34-27 loss to Arizona. Despite a subpar performance in many areas of the game, I think that there are several reasons for Iowa fans to be excited about the remainder of the season. Here are my thoughts.


Special Teams Play. The margin for error at Iowa has always been and always will be small. That margin for error shrinks even more on the road against a quality opponent. It is very rare for a team to give up a blocked punt that leads to a touchdown, a kickoff return for a touchdown, and miss an extra point and walk away with a win on the road, yet Iowa was oh so close to overcoming those odds. Iowa’s donation of fourteen points to Arizona with the blocked punt and kickoff return made it nearly impossible for Iowa to win the game, which should make Iowa fans very pleased with the team’s effort in the second half to score twenty straight unanswered points to tie the game. Iowa’s kickoff coverage has been suspect all year, as the unit is giving up 30.9 yards per return, which is good enough for 116th out of 120 teams in Division I. With respect to kickoff coverage, it does not appear that players are abandoning their lanes; rather, it appears as though they are tentative in getting to the returner instead of flying to the returner with the reckless abandon that is necessary to have good kickoff coverage. Something tells me that special teams will receive quite a bit of work during this week of practice.

Protection. While I was just as disgusted as everyone else with the debacle that was the last offensive drive that resulted in three straight sacks, in evaluating the performance of the offensive line for the whole game, think about how much time Ricky Stanzi had to throw the ball the entire game. For an offensive line that includes three first time starters, I thought they handled the pressure of playing on the road quite well and gave Stanzi plenty of time to throw the ball deep downfield. Run blocking, however, was a different story, due in part to the fact that Arizona was selling out on the run placing eight or more defenders in the box, which teams have been prone to do against Iowa for the past several years. Iowa’s offense is predicated on establishing the run, thus the offensive line will need to continue its progress and improve each week to help setup the play-action pass. The defensive gameplan of future Iowa opponents will likely be similar to what Arizona did on Saturday, which is to say that teams will continue to bring pressure with linebackers up the middle and through disguised cornerback blitzes. As this unit continues to develop and grow, I think they will be able to handle the blitz long enough for Stanzi to make the quick throw to burn the blitz.

Defensive Scheme. Arizona quarterback Nick Foles is probably the most accurate passer that the Iowa defense will face the entire season. Likewise, his patience to wait for his receivers to become open in Iowa’s zone was one of the better passing performances against an Iowa defense in a long time. One of my biggest curiosities entering this season was how well Jeff Tarpinian and Tyler Nielsen would cover receivers in space. Although both have the athletic ability and talent to keep up with receivers, their lack of experience was evident on Saturday. Nonetheless, I think Iowa’s linebackers will continue to improve and gain the experience that Iowa had last year with two year starter Pat Angerer and three year starter AJ Edds, who are arguably two of the best linebackers in the Kirk Ferentz era. On the defensive line, I thought that Mike Daniels was particularly impressive again in this game with his ability to push back his blocker off the line of scrimmage. Likewise, the athleticism of Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard was a sight to behold even if it did not translate into quantifiable statistics. It is only a matter of time before the sacks and hurried throws that result in interceptions start to add up for this unit.

Like many Iowa fans I was initially angry and upset about the performance on Saturday. When my Hawkeye hangover settled by Sunday morning, however, I was impressed with the team’s ability to compete in the second half by scoring twenty unanswered points to tie the game at 27. I also think that if Iowa and Arizona played ten times against one another, Iowa would win eight to nine of those ten games but, as they say, that is why they play the game. The other reason for my optimism is due to the fact that the Big Ten race is still wide open, as Wisconsin and Michigan do not appear to be as strong as I thought at the beginning of the year. If Iowa can continue to improve, eliminate the small mental mistakes that caused the disasters on Saturday, and play to their ability, there is still so much to play for this season, including an outright Big Ten championship, something that Iowa has not had since 1985 and, perhaps, a berth in the Rose Bowl. Most sane Iowa fans would take an 11-1 or 10-2 record and a Big Ten championship if offered. The placement of the Ball State game could not come at a better time, as several Hawkeyes are nicked up, most notably Jewel Hampton whose status is still uncertain. With a bye week on the horizon after a night game against Penn State on the horizon, I think a shot of confidence against an overmatched Ball State team will be just what the doctor ordered for this team.

Arizona Predictions

The game that Iowa fans have been worried about the entire offseason is finally here. However, if those same fans knew that the Iowa offense would look this consistent this early in the season, I wonder if those fans would have had the same lingering concerns. My thoughts and predictions on this game have waffled considerably over the entire offseason and this past week. Here are my thoughts.

• Defensive Pressure. Arizona has three offensive weapons that should give Iowa fans cause for concern. Nick Foles, who came in at quarterback in the second half of the game last season, is a presence in the pocket completing 84% of his pass attempts in two games this season. While the competition of Toledo and The Citadel is not exactly top notch competition, that completion percentage is still off the charts and should worry Iowa fans. Foles’s favorite target is 6-4 wide receiver Juron Criner who is a physical wide receiver that can stretch the field and make big plays. The final piece of this trio is running back Nic Grigsby who Iowa fans saw plenty of last year when he ran for 75 yards on 11 carries against the Hawkeyes. Even though Arizona’s offensive statistics have been astronomical this year, Foles is a pure pocket passer and, therefore, if Iowa is able to create pressure using just its defensive line, the timing that is critical in this Arizona passing offense will be thrown off, which could lead to hurried throws or Foles throwing the ball out of bounds. Perhaps even more important is that if the defensive line is able to create pressure without blitzing, it will allow the linebackers to stay in coverage against an Arizona passing attack that relies on short passing routes. Although Arizona will be able to move the ball in short gains, I think Arizona will be surprised at how talented this Iowa defense truly is and will struggle to deal with the physical play by the second half.

• Big Run. Adam Robinson showed last week why Iowa fans have come to love him since he burst on the scene last year against UNI. Robinson’s ability to keep his legs moving and shake tackles causes him to gain extra yards on each carry, which might seem negligible at first glance, but second down and four is a much different situation than second down and seven by allowing for greater flexibility with play calling on second down. Jewel Hampton admitted this week during the weekly Iowa press conference that he was anxious in his first game in over a year last week against Iowa State. One could tell watching the game that he was not patient for his cutback lanes to open and hit the hole about one step too quickly. If Hampton is able to let the game slow down and have patience, I think that there is a good chance he breaks a big run against an Arizona defense that only returns four starters from last year’s defense.

• Kicking Question. I mentioned after the Iowa State game that we have yet to see Trent Mossbrucker, or any kicker for that matter, attempt a field goal this season. Mossbrucker has not attempted a field goal since late in 2008 and has not had an opportunity to kick a field goal under significant pressure in his career. This, of course, assumes that Kirk Ferentz would call on Mossbrucker to trot out for the first field goal attempt of the year. Daniel Murray appears to be available this week, but I would guess that Mossbrucker gets the first attempt due to Murray’s absence the past two weeks as the result of a hip flexor injury. In what will likely be a close game, Iowa will likely have several field goal opportunities, and on the road, successfully converting those attempts are critical if a road team wants to win. A missed field goal could mean the difference between walking out of Tucson with a win or a loss, as last year’s Ohio State game illustrated.

• Offensive Gameplan. One of the questions I pondered this week was whether Iowa would come out with a short passing plan similar to their first drive against Eastern Illinois, or a running plan that relies on Iowa’s bread and butter zone blocking stretch play. My guess is that we will see a balance of run and pass that Iowa fans have come to expect in the Kirk Ferentz era. I also think that we will see Iowa establish the run to set up the deep play action pass that seemed to work so well last week against Arizona. As Steve Deace, host of the soon to be former radio show Miller & Deace in the Morning always says, a college football team cannot hide its quarterback. Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi certainly is not hiding behind anything and is more than capable to handle any pressure or hostility that may be present in Tucson on Saturday. Stanzi has looked confident and poised in Iowa’s first two games and I look for him to continue that in this game and will lead the Iowa offense on several long scoring drives

There seem to be two trains of thoughts among Iowa fans’ thoughts on this game. One camp thinks Iowa will roll Arizona and walk away with a win by a two touchdown or more margin. The other camp has worried about this game the entire offseason and thinks it will be a close game, if not a potential loss. I tend to side with the latter camp, as Arizona has payback on its mind after last season’s loss in Iowa City. While I trust Kirk Ferentz that the heat and game time are non-issues, I am concerned with the fact that Norm Parker will not be making the trip, a trip he also missed in 2004 when Iowa was humbled in a 44-7 loss at Arizona State. While every Iowa fan should be most concerned with Parker being discharged from the hospital and getting back to good health, there is no doubt that his presence will be missed. Think about taking an early evening nap or even a pregame coffee, Hawkeye fans, as this game is going to challenge your ability to stay awake to watch a great football game.

Prediction: Iowa 24 Arizona 21

Pick to Click: Jeff Tarpinian

Thoughts on Iowa State Game

Dominant performances early on in the season have been few and far between in the Kirk Ferentz era, which is not a knock on Coach Ferentz or the coaching staff, as they are more concerned with steady progress and improvement than dominating opponents. This senior-laden team, however, showed on Saturday, against a rival opponent no less, why lofty aspirations this season are realistic. Here are my thoughts.

Disruption. How many times does it need to be said how talented this defensive line is before it simply becomes a broken record? The play of Adrian Clayborn, Karl Klug, Christian Ballard, Broderick Binns, and Mike Daniels was absolutely superb on Saturday. While the defensive line only ended up with one sack, their disruption of the Iowa State offense cannot be quantified. The constant pressure forced Iowa State quarterback Austen Arnaud into several hurried throws and bad decisions resulting in three interceptions. Likewise, the defensive line was responsible for limiting one of the best running backs in the Big 12, Alexander Robinson, to forty nine yards rushing. The problem for scheming against this Iowa defense is the fact that they are able to apply a consistent pass rush with only four linemen, which allows the linebackers to stay back in coverage and defend the pass. While another difficult test awaits this defense this next week, I expect this unit to continue to improve, which should be very disconcerting to Iowa’s remaining opponents.

Drive and Push. The play of Iowa’s offensive line was also a bright spot on Saturday powering Adam Robinson and Jewel Hampton to 158 and 87 yards of rushing respectively, and 293 total rushing yards. Perhaps most encouraging was the way that this unit came out and methodically moved the line of scrimmage early in the first half to consecutive drives of 71 yards. While this young offensive line was a concern of many Iowa fans entering the season, their play thus far has been very impressive, especially the play of James Ferentz and Nolan MacMillan who have both been able to stay on their blocks and drive their defenders down the field. I am very encouraged by the play of this young unit and am anxious to watch their development as the season continues.

Quick Start. Not to apply any jinxes, but it has been very encouraging that the Iowa offense has scored on their first offensive possession in the first two games. With a defense that will limit scoring, the ability of Iowa’s offense to spot their defensive brethren with seven points is a huge advantage. Ricky Stanzi looked confident in the pocket and made several beautiful long throws to Marvin McNutt and Allen Reisner. Stanzi’s ability to throw the ball downfield and put the ball over a receiver’s shoulder while hitting him in stride has been a thing of beauty his entire career and is something that should not be taken for granted. What is even more exciting for Iowa fans is the fact that Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, arguably one of Iowa’s best playmakers, along with McNutt, has not had many touches this season. It will be very interesting to see if this Iowa offense is able to continue its consistency in the desert against a salty Arizona defense.

Coverage. The only dark spot of the afternoon was Iowa’s kickoff coverage, which is something that Iowa has always done well under Kirk Ferentz. Typically a breakdown on coverage is a matter of players going outside of their lanes and shirking responsibilities. I would expect Iowa’s kickoff coverage to be much improved this week against Arizona. Speaking of special teams, one thing that does worry me about the Arizona game is the fact that Iowa has yet to attempt a field goal this season. It really concerns me that Trent Mossbrucker may be called on to make a clutch field goal against Arizona without having done so in competition this season.

Iowa’s 35-7 victory over intrastate rival Iowa State was one of the most dominant performances on both sides of the ball that Iowa has had in a long time. Iowa outperformed Iowa State in almost every respect of the game and gives this team confidence entering a matchup in a game that has worried Iowa fans the entire offseason. While I think the two hour time difference and heat are overblown in terms of their disadvantages to the Hawkeyes, Iowa will face one of the best backfields it will see the entire season, and although I will make my prediction later in the week, I think Iowa fans have reason to be confident heading into the game.

Iowa State Predictions

The annual intrastate matchup that Iowa fans dislike to play because more is at stake with a loss and the game that Iowa State fans have to defend as not being important comes at a time when the animosity between the two fanbases is at a high level. While this annual game does not garner much attention outside of the state, in a state with a population of approximately 3 million people, there is little doubt that the eyes of most Iowans are on the game. Here are my thoughts.

• Defensive Line Pressure. In the week leading up to this game, much has been made about the performance of Iowa’s defensive line in last season’s game. While Iowa walked away with a 35-3 victory, the defensive line was gashed for 190 rushing yards by Iowa State. You have all heard the stories about Iowa defensive line coach Rick Kaczenski holding a meeting with the defensive linemen that was a heated film session to point out what he believed to be a lackadaisical effort on their part. Almost all of the same characters in this story between the Iowa defensive line and the Iowa State offensive line and backfield are back for part two. The most important key for Iowa’s defensive line in this game will be to play their gaps and responsibilities, as read-option offenses like Iowa State rely heavily on over-pursuit by defensive linemen. While I do not think Iowa’s defensive line will stop Iowa State the same way they stopped the Georgia Tech running attack in the Orange Bowl, I do think they will improve on last year’s performance.

• Touchdown-Less. It is amazing to think of all the things that have occurred since 2006 when Iowa State last scored a touchdown against Iowa. The Iowa State offense returns most of its key contributors from last year’s team, including quarterback Austin Arnaud and running back Alexander Robinson. Couple that experience with a second year of the same coaching staff led on offense by innovative offensive coordinator Tom Herman and I think it is likely that the touchdown-less streak will end this Saturday. On the other hand, while Iowa State will likely be able to move the ball between the 20s, when they do get to the red zone and are forced to deal with that extra safety (i.e. the back of the endzone), expect the Iowa defense to do what it does best in the redzone and force field goals. Either way, I think that Iowa State scores at least one if not two touchdowns in this game.

• Turnover Frenzy. In addition to the discussion on the 190 rushing yards surrendered by Iowa’s defense last year, the other popular discussion point leading up to this game are Iowa State’s six turnovers that were caused or forced, depending on your point of view, in last year’s game. As always in rivalry games, turnovers and special teams tend to be the most critical factors in determining the winner. While I do not think Iowa has to play turnover free, I think they at least need to be plus two in turnover margin to win by double digits. While Arnaud has certainly improved since his five interception disaster last year, in watching Iowa State’s game against Northern Illinois it is clear that he still misses linebacker and safety zone coverage in the middle. I expect him to throw at least one interception this Saturday.

• Running Game. This Saturday will see the return of Jewel Hampton to the Iowa backfield. While I am as excited as any other Hawkeye fan to see Hampton back in the lineup, the one thing that concerns me is ball security. As a freshman, Hampton had a tendency to fumble, which along with missing blocks, are two things that a running back cannot do. Despite that concern, I think the change of pace between Hampton and Adam Robinson will eventually wear down the Iowa State defense. While my prediction indicates a close game, I could also see the game being close for three quarters until the Iowa rushing attack eventually wears down the Iowa State defense.

I am very interested to see if the two schools continue this game if the Big Ten does move to a nine game conference schedule, as it may take an act by the Iowa legislature to continue the series in the same way that the Iowa legislature renewed the series back in 1977. Since 1998 when Iowa State ended Iowa’s fifteen game winning streak, I have always just wanted this game to be a win and move on to the next game, as I think Iowa always has so much more to lose in this game and Iowa State always seems to play above their talent level in this matchup. While I do think that Iowa State has improved in Paul Rhoads’ second year, the fact that Iowa is senior laden on both sides of the ball and the fact that it is at Kinnick make me feel much better about the outcome.

Prediction: Iowa 24 Iowa State 17

Pick to Click: Derrell Johnson-Koulianos

Thoughts on Eastern Illinois Game

With memories of last year’s 17-16 heart racing opener against Northern Iowa still fresh in the minds of Iowa fans, the 37-7 victory over Eastern Illinois resembled what Iowa fans have come to expect out of a season opener. The major concern, of course, was that scary moment during the second quarter when quarterback Ricky Stanzi made an awkward move to avoid a defender and came up limping. According to Kirk Ferentz, Stanzi is a little sore but is 100%, which is reassuring with Iowa’s annual matchup with intrastate foe Iowa State on the horizon. Here are my thoughts on the Eastern Illinois game.

• Vanilla Offense. As one would expect, the Iowa offense was fairly vanilla and basic against an over-matched Eastern Illinois defense. Offensive coordinator Ken O’Keefe utilized plays that the Iowa offense has run for the past twelve years and gave very little for future opponents to find something new about this Iowa offense. Perhaps the wildest plays came in the third quarter when Iowa ran back-to-back end arounds to Marvin McNutt and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. I would guess that the end arounds were put in place as a setup for a play to occur later this season. Adam Robinson had an impressive 109 yards rushing with two touchdowns and, with return of Jewel Hampton this week, appears to be one part of a formidable duo in the Iowa backfield this season. Overall, I thought the offense did what it should do in a game like this, which is move the ball easily down the field with a run-pass balance. One thing that I am interested to see next week is how much push the undersized Iowa offensive line is able to get on a running play against a much better defensive front.

• Try to Stop Him. On the very first defensive play of the year, All-American hopeful Adrian Clayborn experienced what he will likely face most of the year—a double team. While Clayborn’s statistics were not his best, Eastern Illinois avoided running the football in his direction and double-teamed and, sometime, triple-teamed him. Nonetheless, Clayborn was his usual disruptive force in Eastern Illinois’s backfield. On pass plays, Clayborn’s ability to push the left tackle into the backfield may not always result in a sack or tackle, but it does force the quarterback to move around the pocket, which messes up the timing of passing routes and allows more time for the other defensive linemen to get a sack or disrupt the play. Similar to the play of Shonn Greene in 2008, enjoy watching this defensive end, Hawkeye fans, as players of Clayborn’s caliber are once a decade type of players.

• Special Teams. Unfortunately, Trent Mossbrucker did not have the opportunity to attempt a field goal, which would have been good game experience for him with Daniel Murray out with an injury. Ryan Donahue did what Ryan Donahue does best—high, booming punts that die near the goal line. One of the most impressive showings on special teams was Mike Meyers’ kickoffs, four of which landed in the endzone. Forcing opponents to start at the 20 yard line as the result of a touchback would be a huge advantage for the Iowa defense this season. Finally, count me as one Iowa fan that was happy to see Paki O’Meara find the endzone after his blocked punt. Players like O’Meara who work hard their entire college careers with no possibility of playing professionally deserve good things like that to happen.

• Warmup Game. While there was little chance of Eastern Illinois repeating the UNI game from last year and although Eastern Illinois did not have the talent to compete with Iowa, they played physical football for the final three quarters of the game. I think one of the most beneficial takeaways from this game is how much Eastern Illinois blitzed in the second half. As young as this offensive line is, it was great practice for them to work on blitz pick-up coverage and to work on how they will work as a unit against the blitz, as Iowa’s opponents for the rest of the year will likely stack the box and blitz regularly against this young offensive line.

While Iowa played well, there are certainly things that they did not do well, which I think is actually a good thing, as it allows the coaching staff to point out all of the errors to young men who may have a little bit of an inflated view of how far along they are in their development this season. As a fan, however, there is not much to be able to take away from this game. A top ten team should dominate an FCS school and should beat them soundly. Without stating the obvious, I think Iowa fans will quickly learn in the next two weeks whether the lofty expectations of this season can be met.

Eastern Illinois Predictions

As the 121st season of Iowa Hawkeye football is about to begin, the anticipation leading up to the season opener is momentous for several reasons. The expectations surrounding this season and team are arguably the highest they have ever been in Iowa football history with a seasoned senior quarterback at the helm, an explosive receiver corps, two established running backs, and one of the best defensive lines in the country lead by the best defensive end in the country. Iowa fans also received two other great pieces of news in the days leading up to the opener. The anticipation and concern leading up to the Big Ten’s announcement of the division of the conference resulted in a collective sigh of relief by Iowa fans with Iowa placed in the division with Nebraska and Michigan and not in the division with Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Iowa athletic director Gary Barta announced on Thursday that Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz signed a contract extension that will lock Ferentz up as the head coach through the 2020 season. With all of those exciting developments over the past few days, it is even more exciting that the season is finally here. Here are my thoughts.

• Division Alignment. Ok, I admit it, I was wrong with my predictions; however, in my defense, I do not think many people would have anticipated at the beginning of August that Michigan and Ohio State would be in separate divisions. When the announcement was made on Wednesday night, Iowa fans should have received the announcement with open arms. With Iowa in the same division as Nebraska, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, and Northwestern, Iowa has a realistic chance of making the Big Ten championship game for the foreseeable future, especially if Michigan continues its downward spiral and makes a coaching change after the season, which will likely set them back for another two to three year rebuilding process. While some Iowa fans seemed to be puzzled with the selection of Purdue as Iowa’s opposite division protected rival, to me it is a complete non-issue. Everyone knew going into this process that some rivalries were going to be sacrificed and that each school would have to concede on some points. Given the final divisions, there was no way that the Big Ten was going to split up the Wisconsin-Minnesota rivalry, which is the most-played rivalry in college football, nor was there any way that the conference would get rid of Illinois-Northwestern or the national television exposure of the Penn State-Nebraska matchup. Even though recent Iowa and Purdue games have been very competitive, Iowa fans should view their new rival as a game on the schedule that more often than not will give the Hawkeyes an opportunity for a win as opposed to the more competitive matchups with Penn State, Wisconsin, or Ohio State. On the whole, I think the Big Ten conference did a fantastic job of maintaining traditional rivalries and achieving competitive balance. Perhaps the only school with a true gripe is Wisconsin, who now faces annual matchups with Penn State and Ohio State, even though Wisconsin fans seem to embrace the notion that their program is strong enough to compete with those two programs. Speaking of Wisconsin, I have a conspiracy theory that has not, at least to my knowledge, been discussed by many people. The Big Ten Network announced early Wednesday morning that they would host a show at 6 p.m. that night revealing the divisions. Later in the day, around 12:30 or so, ESPN’s Andy Katz broke a story with the division breakdown, and his report proved to be correct. Given Wisconsin’s arguable disappointment with the announcement and the fact that Andy Katz, a competitor, broke the story, I cannot help but wonder if Katz, a Wisconsin alum, received some valuable information from Wisconsin athletic director, Barry Alvarez. While that is a total guess and likely not true, it is an interesting theory nonetheless. Iowa fans should not only be excited about their placement, but they should also be pleased with the fact that Iowa will now play Nebraska in the final week of the Big Ten season. The animosity between the two fan bases, and states for that matter, will be increasing at a measurable rate between now and November 26, 2011.

• What to Watch. There are several things that I am looking forward to watching on Saturday. The offensive line has been the target of questions the entire offseason after losing four starters from last year’s team. With Adam Gettis out for Saturday’s game with an ankle injury, Iowa fans will not get to see the starting five linemen working as a unit until the Iowa State game. Likewise, with Cody Hundermarkt, Gettis’s backup, announcing his departure from the Iowa program, it will likely fall on Nolan MacMillan, a redshirt freshman from Canada to become the “Next Man In.” In addition to the offensive line play, I am curious to watch the linebacker play of Jeff Tarpinian, Bruce Davis, and Tyler Nielsen. Supposedly Tarpinian is going to give it a go on Saturday despite suffering a broken hand a few weeks ago; however, I am guessing that Iowa fans will see plenty of Davis at the middle linebacker position. Nielsen has the unenviable task of filling the shoes of AJ Edds. I am curious to see how Nielsen, who is also nursing an injury, plays in pass coverage, which Edds turned into an art form in his last two season at the position. The kicking game, which has also been an area of concern since spring practice, has appeared to settle down based on Kirk Ferentz’s comments earlier this week. Nonetheless, I am curious to see which kicker marches out for that first field goal attempt. My guess is Daniel Murray. The bigger curiosity is freshmen walk-on kicker Mike Meyer handling kickoff duties, which gives me concern about the leg strength of the other two kickers.

• Offensive Dominance. With all of the offensive weapons that Iowa has entering the season, it would be nice to see these talents showcased with several sustained touchdown drives. While I expect Iowa to be able to move the ball with relative ease against Eastern Illinois, it will be important for the offense to focus on execution and consistency to continue the work that they put in during camp. One of my biggest concerns about Ricky Stanzi entering the year was expressed earlier this week by Kirk Ferentz, which is that Stanzi will press too hard and be harder on himself than necessary. Based on Stanzi’s demeanor, I think these concerns will not materialize, but it will be interesting to watch how he handles the lofty expectations in the first few games.

• The New King. When Gary Barta announced that Kirk Ferentz’s contract was extended through 2020, I could not help but think that if he remains at Iowa for the remainder of that contract, Iowa will have the good fortune to have two head coaches for more than forty years and, with respect to Ferentz’s staff, a continuity of assistants that is unparalleled anywhere else in the nation. I have always said that even if Iowa’s record is 6-6 or 5-7, there is no one I would rather have as the head coach of the University of Iowa. The University of Iowa could not have a better or classier person represent the University than Ferentz. Regardless of the outcome of this season, I think the Ferentz has already done enough to deserve a seat next to Hayden Fry and Forest Evashevski as the greatest coaches in Iowa football history.

Christmas Day is almost here. The dog days of summer are almost behind us and the sights and smells of fall are almost upon us. As one of the most anticipated seasons in Iowa football history is about to begin, I have to remind myself to enjoy each and every game, as it always amazes me how quickly twelve Saturdays of Hawkeye football pass each year. While I promised a season prediction earlier this year, I have to admit that I have struggled with it in my mind over the past few months. Therefore, I am going to stick my initial gut reaction and predict that Iowa will go 10-2 with losses to Wisconsin and Michigan. Nonetheless, I still think that Iowa could make the Rose Bowl, as I do not think Ohio State will run the table in the Big Ten, nor do I think Wisconsin is capable of going unscathed through the Big Ten. If the Hawkeyes prove me wrong and go 11-1 or the improbable 12-0, there will not be a happier person in the Hawkeye nation. Oh, one more thing. The last time the season started on September 4th was 2004 when Iowa won a share of the Big Ten championship, so maybe fate indeed is on the side of the Hawkeyes.

Prediction: Iowa 41 Eastern Illinois 10

Pick to Click: Ricky Stanzi